Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well goodbye and good riddance December 2015! - you'll be remembered for some time but for all the wrong reasons. A mild winter month like I've never experienced before and for once more flooding the poor people in Cumbria/Yorkshire and Lancashire. So far experienced about 38/39 days now without a frost - when will winter begin?

not the worst here, known it wetter (south), but sadly for flooded areas, this will likely start happening more often

[cheeky_monkey]

1 minute ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

I had a look at that winter for one of my historic videos a few weeks ago, and what was interesting about that winter was that December 1985 was quite mild (CET of 6.3C). Obviously it's nowhere near as mild as this December, but that month saw a fairly predominant Euro high with some flooding in areas. I bet no one saw that February coming at the time...

And actually December 1985 would have had a higher CET, if it wasn't for the fairly cold final week.

the difference between 1985 and 2015 we had come off the back of a very cold November and the cold was never far away ....even though Dec was mild much of northern and eastern europe stayed cold...indeed so much so Oslo never got above freezing from mid November 1985 to mid March 1986 

[Timmytour]

21 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

the difference between 1985 and 2015 we had come off the back of a very cold November and the cold was never far away ....even though Dec was mild much of northern and eastern europe stayed cold...indeed so much so Oslo never got above freezing from mid November 1985 to mid March 1986

That's why I look to 1955 for inspiration...a cold January, a freezing February and a very cold March following on from the mild November and December seen at the end of 1954

 

Edited December 31, 2015 by Timmytour
typo

[Bradowl]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

You drink cold coffee?

 

Costa Blanca. 

[Peter H]

The one ray of hope is Europe, particularly Scandinavia and the east, are really cooling down now, and long range models are consistently predicting either an Iceland or Scandinavian high from mid month onwards.

Eastern Europe being so cold is a good sign, something which hasn't happened in a year or two.

This time next week the models may all have changed though. Still, the really cold air is tantalisingly close......

[igloo]

i  hoped the weather would change and a fresh start at the new year with some respite from this dreaded flooding we are having  no chance 

Edited December 31, 2015 by igloo

[Timmytour]

I think Fergie just killed January....

[mountain shadow]

5 hours ago, Timmytour said:

I think Fergie just killed January....

Certainly reads like it.

I had hoped that the MJO phase 7 would lead to a more amplified Atlantic with a Northerly to boot.

It would appear the Met Office expect the MJO to be over ridden by the million and one other factors that stop cold coming to these islands. 

Euro high to be replaced by the Azores high.

Magic! !

[cheshire snow]

I for one am not inpressed tonight,Temperature is round about freezing,its blinking cold,and i am outside working in it

Also got a stinking head cold

Oh and Happy New Year

C.S

[SLEETY]

3 hours ago, Timmytour said:

I think Fergie just killed January....

been spot on so far this winter,a complete traversty of a winter,so far.Still think we will see one major cold spell ,but not till feb,at the earliest,maybe March will deliver again,like 2o13.

[JoeShmoe]

7 hours ago, Timmytour said:

I think Fergie just killed January....

Yup - and let's be honest with the raging EL Nino, huge temp differences between the tropics / pole and the raging jet stream who really doesn't believe that is the very in form horse this winter

if as Ian also says any chance of an SSW is most likely now in Feb then it's not a happy new year for snow lovers tbh ...

[Gustywind]

Think we need to accept that below CET months will become increasingly hard to achieve as the years progress, with a sub zero monthly CET becoming a 1 in 50 year event, if at all.

In the past I'd have put money on a big flip to cold at some stage in the next few weeks, but after 2013-14 winter (when no such flip occurred), I'm not so sure now.

The UK climate seems to be progressively moving into a new phase characterised by stormy, wet and mild winters and drier and warmer Spring - Autumn periods. 

Snow being consigned to history, at least in the southern UK.

[snowangel32]

Fergie update plus the models flip to a more mild outlook looks to have put paid to any prolonged cold spell in Jan. it seems once again we will be sandwiched right in the middle with cold air all around us. But I wouldn't write off the whole of Jan the vortex is under pressure we just need that bit of luck that has deserted us the last few years. Happy New Year to you all. 

[northwestsnow]

Strong PV in Winter

Strong Greeny high summer.

Thats a most unwelcome trend but one im seeing regularly.

[Weather-history]

41 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Think we need to accept that below CET months will become increasingly hard to achieve as the years progress, with a sub zero monthly CET becoming a 1 in 50 year event, if at all.

In the past I'd have put money on a big flip to cold at some stage in the next few weeks, but after 2013-14 winter (when no such flip occurred), I'm not so sure now.

The UK climate seems to be progressively moving into a new phase characterised by stormy, wet and mild winters and drier and warmer Spring - Autumn periods. 

Snow being consigned to history, at least in the southern UK.

Where have I heard this before? 10 years ago? Northerly winter blocking has become virtually extinct, we can't get months below 3.0C CET anymore?

We just had a 6 month below average period, May to September '15. I may have bought your idea if below average months have continually decreased.

Months below the 1971-2000 average since January 2001

Sep 2015: 12.6 (-1.0)
Aug 2015: 15.9 (-0.3)
Jul  2015: 15.9 (-0.6)
Jun 2015: 14.0 (-0.1)
May 2015: 10.8 (-0.5)
Feb 2015: 4.0 (-0.2)
Aug 2014: 14.9 (-1.3)
Nov 2013:  6.2 (-0.7)
Jun 2013: 13.6 (-0.5)
May 2013: 10.4 (-0.9)
Apr 2013: 7.5 (-0.6)
Mar 2013: 2.7 (-3.6)
Feb 2013: 3.2 (-1.0)
Jan 2013:  3.5 (-0.7)
Dec 2012: 4.8 (-0.3)
Nov 2012: 6.8 (-0.1)
Oct 2012: 9.7 (-0.7)
Sep 2012: 13.0 (-0.6)
Jul 2012: 15.5 (-1.0)
Jun 2012: 13.5 (-0.6)
Apr 2012: 7.2 (-0.9)
Feb 2012: 3.8 (-0.4)
Aug 2011: 15.4 (-0.8)
July 2011: 15.2 (-1.3)
June 2011: 13.8 (-0.3)
Jan 2011: 3.7 (-0.5)
Dec 2010: -0.7 (-5.8)
Nov 2010: 5.2 (-1.7)
Oct 2010: 10.3 (-0.1)
Aug 2010: 15.3 (-0.9)
May 2010: 10.7 (-0.6)
Mar 2010: 6.1 (-0.2)
Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.4)
Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.8)

-----------------------------
Dec 2009: 3.1 (-2.0)
Jul 2009: 16.1 (-0.4)
Feb 2009: 4.1 [-0.1]
Jan 2009: 3.0 [-1.2] 
Dec 2008: 3.5 (-1.6) 
Oct 2008: 9.7 (-0.7)
Sep 2008: 13.5 (-0.2)
Jul 2008: 16.2 (-0.3)
Jun 2008: 13.9 (-0.2)
Apr 2008: 7.9 (-0.2)
Mar 2008: 6.1 (-0.2)
Dec 2007: 4.9 (-0.2) 
Aug 2007: 15.4 (-0.8) 
July 2007: 15.2 (-1.3)
Aug 2006: 16.1 (-0.1)
Mar 2006: 4.9 (-1.4)
Feb 2006: 3.7 (-0.5)
Dec 2005: 4.4 (-0.7)
Nov 2005: 6.2 (-0.7)
July 2004: 15.8 (-0.7) 
Dec 2003: 4.8 (-0.3) 
Oct 2003: 9.2 (-1.2) 
Feb 2003: 3.9 (-0.3) 
Oct 2002: 10.1 (-0.3) 
Jul 2002: 16.0 (-0.5) 
Dec 2001: 3.6 (-1.5) 
Sep 2001: 13.4 (-0.3) 
Apr 2001: 7.7 (-0.4) 
Mar 2001: 5.2 (-1.1) 
Jan 2001: 3.2 (-1.0)

 

Edited January 1, 2016 by Weather-history
.

[Nick L]

38 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Think we need to accept that below CET months will become increasingly hard to achieve as the years progress, with a sub zero monthly CET becoming a 1 in 50 year event, if at all.

In the past I'd have put money on a big flip to cold at some stage in the next few weeks, but after 2013-14 winter (when no such flip occurred), I'm not so sure now.

The UK climate seems to be progressively moving into a new phase characterised by stormy, wet and mild winters and drier and warmer Spring - Autumn periods. 

Snow being consigned to history, at least in the southern UK.

Bit melodramatic this. It is only 5 years since we had an exceptionally cold month, and have had cold winter months since then.

This is beginning to sound like that nonsense modern winter theory we had some years ago.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Where have I heard this before? 10 years ago? Northerly winter blocking has become virtually extinct, we can't get months below 3.0C CET anymore?

We just had a 6 month below average period, May to September '15. I may have bought your idea if below average months have continually decreased.

We have had more below average months already this decade than the entire previous decade.

It seems to be getting wetter though WE,a LOT wetter

 

 

[Weather-history]

7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Bit melodramatic this. It is only 5 years since we had an exceptionally cold month, and have had cold winter months since then.

This is beginning to sound like that nonsense even larger teapot theory we had some years ago.

Just purely looking at it through a weather enthusiast eyes, you could argue we are living through a really remarkable period and we are lucky. Coldest 30 day run up to Christmas since at least 1772 in 2010 to the mildest in 2015. Sunniest winter in record last winter, wettest previous winter, one of the most remarkable months on record with the December just gone, April 2011 but then early March to early April 2013 recording  a CET of just 2.4C.

I remember 1997-2007 and it was basically mild, mild, mild!! Hardly any cool months returned, getting a month that just a bit below average was a novelty and cause of excitement.

At least we are returning cooler than average months than we did before despite the mild bias still present . One thing though, exceptionally dry months have been outweighed by the wet ones. 

[Gustywind]

12 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Bit melodramatic this. It is only 5 years since we had an exceptionally cold month, and have had cold winter months since then.

This is beginning to sound like that nonsense even larger teapot theory we had some years ago.

Not really, of course we will continue to have below average months/periods of weather, just that the overall trend is one of increasing warmth, so the below average months will get progressively fewer over time.

The above will lead to reduced snowfall, particularly in the south where marginality is more of an issue already. Of course extreme events like Dec-10 can and will still occur, just that they will be far less frequent than in the past.

Look at it this way, how many sub zero CET months were there between 1900-99 and how many so far this century?

[Timmytour]

The average winter's day mean CET, upto and including yesterday, has been colder in the 15 years since the beginning of January 2001 than it was in the 15 years to the end of December 2000...

[cheeky_monkey]

11 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Not really, of course we will continue to have below average months/periods of weather, just that the overall trend is one of increasing warmth, so the below average months will get progressively fewer over time.

The above will lead to reduced snowfall, particularly in the south where marginality is more of an issue already. Of course extreme events like Dec-10 can and will still occur, just that they will be far less frequent than in the past.

Look at it this way, how many sub zero CET months were there between 1900-99 and how many so far this century?

were none before Jan 1940 so we are ahead already  

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

were none before Jan 1940 so we are ahead already  

Yes and another fact is that half of the sub zero CET Februarys have occurred since WWII. There were only 4 up to January 1947.

[Gustywind]

Ok, I thought we had sub zero months in 1917 and 29, but looks like they were just above zero. I had a quick run through of Hadley CETs since 1900 and The number of cold months (say sub 3c) were strikingly greater between 1901-45 versus the last 15 years though. I'd imagine if we went even further back you'd see even greater  numbers of cold months vs. Recent history.

Similarly how many record warm CET months have we seen since 2000 vs. Record cold CET months over the same period?

Ultimately mild months are getting warmer and colder months less cold. I don't think anyone can hand on heart argue with this can they, or that this long term trend is likely to continue due to background global warming?

[Gustywind]

Just found this piece on the Met Office site:

Temperature records:

Since 2000, there have been 10 times as many hot records as cold records.

Taking into account the weighting, the period since 2000 accounts for two-thirds of all hot records in a national series from 1910, but only 3% of cold-records.

The longer Central England Temperature (CET) series, which dates back to 1659, reveals a similar trend – with seven out of a possible 17 records set since 2000 but no record cold periods.

The increase in hot records and decrease in cold records seen in recent decades is consistent with the long-term climate change signal. Seven of the warmest years in the UK series from 1910 have occurred since 2000.

[mb018538]

Before we know it we are going to be in mid january, and only have about 6 decent weeks left to salvage anything from this train wreck of a winter so far! Come on weather gods, give us a break. I've got this sinking feeling that everything in 10 days time is going to start to revert back to something like we had in December. Hoping to be proved so very wrong.