Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[jethro]

3 hours ago, Gustywind said:

Ian Brown took a basically sound argument (that the UK climate is warming) but extrapolated it to the point where it became nonsense, by saying deep cold spells of weather were no longer possible at all, which was obviously ridiculous. This ignored the wide variability in weather and the background drivers that led to winters such as 62-63.

I'm definately not saying that, just that such spells are becoming less frequent and less cold in nature compared to the past.

Warm records/events by contrast seem to be becoming increasingly common.

But are they though or do we just remember what we want to remember? And I don't mean that in a snotty way, I include myself in that. If asked, I'd say winters as a kid for me were colder, snowier than today ('70's & ''80's) but the records don't support my memories. Between 1970 - 77 there was little in the way of snow, a couple of snowy ones in the 1980's, the rest were all fairly average. If you look through this list, it does demonstrate that in the UK we don't often get snowy winters, we get a lot of average ones, a lot where little snow falls, and we often get spells or groups of years where similar weather (be it cold and snowy or wet and warm) seem to fall together.

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

[The PIT]

Not surprising we haven't had any record cold spells considering that they were set in the mini ice age. In theory we should be heading towards another one now if that doesn't turn up that opens up another can of worms.

One good bit of news floating around but hardly mentioned was that co2 levels had actually paused. It's expected to resume rising as other countries start to become more industrialised but you never know as better technology may help prevent this.

[DAVID SNOW]

35 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's the point, Gusty - the predominance of high-temperature records, both inwith and outwith the CET Zone is, to my mind, indisputable evidence of an overall warming trend?

Only the Black Knight, from Monty Python, would argue...

Interesting word trend is:

Over what period of time is a 'trend' decided?

Shall we come back in say, 150 years and see....

[Jason M]

2 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Interesting word trend is:

Over what period of time is a 'trend' decided?

Shall we come back in say, 150 years and see....

All depends really. According to most scientists what we are seeing is already a trend. I suspect that climate change sceptics will start at least considering the issue when the oceans start to boil.

The thing I find interesting is that these days a max temp of 13c is considered no big deal these days in December / January and Feb. Years ago, it would have been noteworthy warmth. Decembers CET is absolutely astonishing at 9.7 or thereabouts. The speed of the warming is accelerating to my mind.

 

 

 

[Methuselah]

Jethro's right - we all have selective memories: How is is that I can, with astonishing 'clarity', remember endless days of scorching heat that lasted throughout the summer holidays of the 1960s; and equally endless winters buried neck-deep in snow?

We remember days that are special; the other 364 days of the year go utterly unremembered. It might have been 7C on 12/01/1964...But, who'd remember a non-event like that?

[snowblizzard]

41 minutes ago, jethro said:

That's exactly what I mean. There are studies a plenty to support both the view that we'll have colder, snowier winters or that we'll have wetter, windier, milder ones. They can't both be right. Depending upon what you want to believe, there's a science paper to back you up. Taking the melting Arctic....we've had cold, snowy winters that were assigned to being the result of less ice, we've had wet, mild ones, again assigned to less ice. The jet stream.....the same again. Last year and the year before everyone said it was raging across the Atlantic towards us because the USA was so cold, result of climate change, get used to it. This year, it's still raging towards us but the USA have been even more above us in the average temperature stakes....again the result of a warming climate.

 

I'm all for accepting we live in a warming world, the temperature records prove that, but is it responsible for every possible variation in the weather? We live on an island with the Atlantic one side, the North sea the other side, we have a maritime climate - we never have had cold, snowy winters year after year and we never will.

In fact, the majority of the USA, especially the mid-West, have been experiencing frigid temperatures during December with deep snow as far South as New Mexico and Texas!

It's only really been the extreme E & SE of USA that have remained on the warm side of the jet.

And, the extreme temperature gradients have generated severe storms, flooding and even tornado's in some Southern states.

The general pattern over USA has definitely had a similar effect on UK weather as the 2014/2015 winter.

[cheese]

2 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Thing is, though, if we agree that our winters are less marked by cold and snowy conditions, we must surely ask what types of synoptics are replacing them?  Let's face it, in winter, the UK tends to have one of the following set-ups at any one time:

1.  Settled, anticyclonic weather (variable cloud amounts from full gloom to sunny and crisp)

2.  Atlantic-driven mild, wet and windy

3.  Cold, snowy weather from the quadrant between due north and due east 

What I'm arguing is that (3) is reducing in frequency, and is being more replaced by (2) than by anticyclonic, settled weather.

Fine - but you can't make that claim because 2 recent winters have been unsettled and mild, when I can think of others preceding that have been mild but also anticyclonic. If we continue to see a repeat of such weather in the next few years then you can reasonably say that a new trend is emerging. 2 years in a meteorological sense is a drop in the ocean - and the way some people have jumped onto the 'this is the new normal' bandwagon is quite frankly a little pathetic, and I expect better.

Edited January 1, 2016 by cheese

[TSNWK]

19 minutes ago, MPG said:

Looks interesting in FI but the majority of January has been written off by our friendly biologist posting output from the Glosea model. Makes things hard to dicuss knowing that our words could be for nothing. 

Here here.. Frankly I come here for a little fun and entertainment.. It does kinda of spoil it when folk with access to far better data than us chip in when ever they feel like it.. Rather not know thank you.. Let's keep the level playing field in our little world please.

 

Please  move to moans thread mods.

 

thank you.

[The PIT]

And 2 years in the life time of the planet is barley a millisecond.

Anyway no sign of anything wintry in the reliable time frame just rain rain rain and maybe a bit of wind later this week. Temps at least will end up closer to normally but night time temps offsetting the suppressed day values. Next weekend may offer something below average but the normal downgrades will probably put it back up to above average by the time we get here.

[snowray]

Maybe its time to book a couple of weeks away in Southern Spain, going to be fabulous down there. Nasty runs for us, Strong Winds, lots rain, and a bit colder too.

[knocker]

58 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

In fact, the majority of the USA, especially the mid-West, have been experiencing frigid temperatures during December with deep snow as far South as New Mexico and Texas!

It's only really been the extreme E & SE of USA that have remained on the warm side of the jet.

And, the extreme temperature gradients have generated severe storms, flooding and even tornado's in some Southern states.

The general pattern over USA has definitely had a similar effect on UK weather as the 2014/2015 winter.

Rather depends on what you mean by extreme E & SE and warm

Map is pretty incredible. All the "1s" are locations setting a record warm December. Many others top 3.

And this as incorrect

Quote

In fact, the majority of the USA, especially the mid-West, have been experiencing frigid temperatures during December with deep snow as far South as New Mexico and Texas!

The majority of the USA has not although you are right concerning areas of the south.

Edited January 1, 2016 by knocker

[78/79]

I have no doubt that the  climate is getting warmer,  for me the cynicism creeps in when I see local authorities, governments, and individuals taking a high moral stance by claiming that they are " trying to save the planet" whilst making a fortune out of the general public at the same time by increased charges and taxes on this, that, and everything else ,a lot of people are making a lot of money out of all this. 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

20 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Here here.. Frankly I come here for a little fun and entertainment.. It does kinda of spoil it when folk with access to far better data than us chip in when ever they feel like it.. Rather not know thank you.. Let's keep the level playing field in our little world please.

 

Please  move to moans thread mods.

 

thank you.

I was just quoting Ian Fergusson, so I'd suggest that if you don't want to hear what the Glosea has to say you might want to add him to your ignore list as well as me.  I don't have access to it other than reading Ian's posts, and wouldn't understand them even if I did. 

Edited January 1, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I was just quoting Ian Fergusson, so I'd suggest that if you don't want to hear what the Glosea has to say you might want to add him to your ignore list as well as me.

Disagree..  If we all had access to Glosea then fair enough.. But we do not and it therefore is not a level playing field.. In regard to ignore, that is pointless as posts are often quoted..

at the end of the day the vast majority of us are weather geeks seeking a little distraction and fun.. We do not need the big kids coming into our playground thank you.. 

Edited January 1, 2016 by TSNWK

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Disagree..  If we all had access to Glosea then fair enough.. But we do not and it therefore is not a level playing field.. In regard to ignore, that is pointless as posts are often quoted..

at the end of the day the vast majority of us are weather geeks seeking a little distraction and fun.. We do not need the big kids coming into our playground thank you.. 

I'm not sure I understand 'not a level playing field'. it's not a competition but basically a learning process for most and as such I would have thought any input from the professional area would be welcome and beneficial.

[Norrona2015]

7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Disagree..  If we all had access to Glosea then fair enough.. But we do not and it therefore is not a level playing field.. In regard to ignore, that is pointless as posts are often quoted..

at the end of the day the vast majority of us are weather geeks seeking a little distraction and fun.. We do not need the big kids coming into our playground thank you.. 

To many hope casters on the MOD thread, Ian ferguson and others bring some much needed balance to the discussions.

[Nouska]

13 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Disagree..  If we all had access to Glosea then fair enough.. But we do not and it therefore is not a level playing field.. In regard to ignore, that is pointless as posts are often quoted..

at the end of the day the vast majority of us are weather geeks seeking a little distraction and fun.. We do not need the big kids coming into our playground thank you.. 

Well !!

I've seen some digit diahorrea on here in my time but this takes the biscuit.

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm not sure I understand 'not a level playing field'. it's not a competition but basically a learning process for most and as such I would have thought any input from the professional area would be welcome and beneficial.

Fair point in some respects.. But from my side I do find it a little frustrating that certain folk seem to be able to chip in with information that is not open to fair challenge.. Is it really correct for a single poster to wheel out information from a source no one else has access too. Cheers

[snowblizzard]

46 minutes ago, knocker said:

Rather depends on what you mean by extreme E & SE and warm

Map is pretty incredible. All the "1s" are locations setting a record warm December. Many others top 3.

And this as incorrect

The majority of the USA has not although you right concerning areas of the south.

Certainly, record highs recorded in those area's during first two weeks of December, but later significant change as much colder conditions crept steadily towards Southern Plains, Midwest & North East.

Not record breaking cold though!

Edited January 1, 2016 by snowblizzard

[78/79]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm not sure I understand 'not a level playing field'. it's not a competition but basically a learning process for most and as such I would have thought any input from the professional area would be welcome and beneficial.

Quite agree, I have learned an awful lot just by reading various posts. I can honestly say that just by doing this I have a better understanding of meteorology than for example  the people with whom I work.

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, TSNWK said:

Fair point in some respects.. But from my side I do find it a little frustrating that certain folk seem to be able to chip in with information that is not open to fair challenge.. Is it really correct for a single poster to wheel out information from a source no one else has access too. Cheers

Yes. It is correct. If you don't think the views of the Met Office are welcome then quite frankly you are wrong. 

[Spah1]

Well the family have just left after another lovely meal. Christmas decorations coming down tomorrow and back to work on Monday. All pretty depressing really, at least we've got a freezing cold, snowy January to look forward to - oh, no, wait not even that  just rain and wind. 

Really Hope GP's right and Feb offers some interest. If not let's get to spring and start the cricket season! 

 

[Weather-history]

6 hours ago, Gustywind said:

Ian Brown took a basically sound argument (that the UK climate is warming) but extrapolated it to the point where it became nonsense, by saying deep cold spells of weather were no longer possible at all, which was obviously ridiculous. This ignored the wide variability in weather and the background drivers that led to winters such as 62-63.

I'm definately not saying that, just that such spells are becoming less frequent and less cold in nature compared to the past.

Warm records/events by contrast seem to be becoming increasingly common.

It was worse than that, he made out there had been a fundamental change in our weather and that a pattern change had occurred.

What pattern change? This is from a book I have from the late 1950s with the mean January chart. It's the same pattern now as it was then. The only argument is what causes the waxing and waning of this pattern.

And even further back to 1903

The harsh reality. This was the norm February pattern on the far left over 100 years ago. The Feb 1895 chart was not the norm.

[fergieweather]

I'm BBC staff. The agreement reached 3 or so years back with colleagues at UKMO - after considerable discussion and their ultimate support - was for me to espouse and illustrate (where possible) the world-leading scientific rationale they employ behind the forecasts we communicate from them on the BBC. That I've endeavoured to do, remaining faithful to their expert guidance. But there comes a point when nobody needs the aggro at a personal level: certainly not set against pressures of a busy family life and equally busy shift working. Meanwhile, I'm grateful to those who've been supportive. Where practicable, I'll share forecast detail elsewhere via Twitter etc. We often don't have the opportunity on TV bulletins! All the best to the forum. 

[TSNWK]

14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Yes. It is correct. If you don't think the views of the Met Office are welcome then quite frankly you are wrong. 

Disagree completely. If I want the views of the Metoffice then I am more than capable of googling them myself or making reference  to outlooks posted on the a BBC. The intention of these forums is in general to chat, amongst equals.. When the big hitters come in when ever they feel like it, I take exception. I would clearly ignore if it made a difference. 

 

Anyway nice debate, and I wish you all a healthy and happy 2016. Cheers.