Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Ali1977]

Start warming showing again.

[IDO]

I am not really seeing much chance of blocking at the moment. The synoptics show a very mobile NH with the UK subject to mini-ridge/trough combos. The GFS has been teasing in FI but this looks a trait and it looks no nearer to bringing that close to the reliable. The 06z is notorious for FI mischief, as is the 18z, so best to ignore them after D6.

The LR models have pretty much ignored this and continue with the ongoing theme. JMA week 2 and W3-4:   CFS: 

CFS week 3 & 4 not dissimilar. GEM is flat all the way out to D10:   ECM Mean at D10 offers little but the same: 

 

GFS at D16:  

GFS at D16 is what I have been expecting for a while, a very intense PV with no chance of any decent blocking likely in the medium term. This keeps getting delayed so I am wary of calling that at the moment. The good thing is that the strat is showing signs that could be fruitful during mid Jan. Till then the best colder options are probably PM bursts for the North, as we likely keep positives NAO and AO.

 

[Iceberg]

Vast majority approx 70% of gefs inc control run agree with gfs 06z at t144. 

 

[winterof79]

36 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Start warming showing again.

Hi Ali,With the greatest respect I would think that the warming you show needs to be far greater to have any effect.I tried to retrieve some older charts but alas failed.We need to see -12 and under for a proper warming.

[Ali1977]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Hi Ali,With the greatest respect I would think that the warming you show needs to be far greater to have any effect.I tried to retrieve some older charts but alas failed.We need to see -12 and under for a proper warming.

Yeah, I remember the strong reds of a few years back...just pointing out a possible start.

[winterof79]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Yeah, I remember the strong reds of a few years back...just pointing out a possible start.

Anything at the moment I agree.I just feel that many classic /old fashioned winters follow the same basic pattern with a change around new year and whilst not always a change to extreme cold,there is almost always a definitive change around this time.

[knocker]

32 minutes ago, IDO said:

 

GFS at D16 is what I have been expecting for a while, a very intense PV with no chance of any decent blocking likely in the medium term. This keeps getting delayed so I am wary of calling that at the moment. The good thing is that the strat is showing signs that could be fruitful during mid Jan. Till then the best colder options are probably PM bursts for the North, as we likely keep positives NAO and AO.

 

The monthy ECM  eps mean keeps them both positive until the 4th Jan

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles pretty awful too, rather than a signal for pressure to decline over NW/Central Europe we see a signal for the return of the slug (Euro high)

I don't think me and this new GFS are going to get along very well.

They do improve in deepest FI but then that's another story.

 

Let's hope ECM is better and more in line with UKMO and GFS is just a blip.

Edited December 4, 2015 by Mucka

[Captain Shortwave]

That low developing near the eastern seaboard at around day 5 adds a definite complication to the output beyond, the UKMO sees nothing there, but the GFS op this afternoon and quite a few ensemble members develop that, with this system trundling eastward it has a potential risk of engaging cold arctic air over Greenland and developing another Atlantic trough which of course goes against a lot of the recent trends for mid-month onwards.

The anomaly beyond day 10 doesn't look as good tonight compared to recent runs.

Ens out to day 11 so far for me, but this is what we see.

A lot of uncertainty but given a pattern change is expected around the 12th/13th, to see the euro anomaly quickly rebuild isn't exactly the best thing to see.

That said it is one suite and with the ECM coming out now we might see something more interesting.

Edit the rest have come out, a lot of above average heights at mid latitudes before it kind of washes out (suggests a weaker westerly pattern). No real clear signal again to me. 

 

Edited December 4, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[Iceaxecrampon]

12z a very poor outlook for coldies - 36 members online says it all in fact better looking at who's online before chart viewing...!

Best of a bad bunch SW front hitting coldish minimas 13th 14th December.

Jet in brief N NW orientation.

Shorterm  - Irish Sea should be interesting tomorrow.

Edited December 4, 2015 by Iceaxecrampon

[gottolovethisweather]

8 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

12z a very poor outlook for coldies - 36 members online says it all in fact better looking at who's online before chart viewing...!

Best of a bad bunch SW front hitting cold minimas 13th 14th December.

Jet in brief N NW orientation.

Shorterm  - Irish Sea should be interesting tomorrow.

And beyond this timeframe I wouldn't be placing any bets on as to what the UK will be getting thereafter. Up until then, some usable weather about especially down South if on the mile to very mild side, frosts should return nationwide by the middle of next week and then the uncertainties increase. As far I'm concerned I'm happy with the bigger picture right now with usual degree of trepidation that it might not work out as planned. Plenty to talk about before the 12-14th December and anything beyond that remains FI so all in all, I think I'll just crack a beer open and sit back and enjoy this Friday evening. 

Edited December 4, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[MPG]

32 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Vast majority approx 70% of gefs inc control run agree with gfs 06z at t144. 

 

 

19 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles pretty awful too, rather than a signal for pressure to decline over NW/Central Europe we see a signal for the return of the slug (Euro high)

I don't think me and this new GFS are going to get along very well.

They do improve in deepest FI but then that's another story.

 

Let's hope ECM is better and more in line with UKMO and GFS is just a blip.

Conflicting posts?

[Ali1977]

Well to me the ECM looks pretty good at 168, PV shifting to Siberia again. 168 isn't to far away so let's hope it's onto something.  The only thing that may scupper it is WAA isn't pushing into Greenland...yet

[nick sussex]

The ECM T168hrs and T192hrs show just how complicated the outlook might be. Those weakish lows in the southern stream are troublesome.  If these phase with the UK troughing then its more difficult to develop colder conditions. Still concerns as to how far east and south the pattern might get.

 

 

[Mucka]

ECM not far off a vey snowy outcome in FI, just a few tweaks here and there and a little added optimism

Edited December 4, 2015 by Mucka

[gottolovethisweather]

20 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well to me the ECM looks pretty good at 168, PV shifting to Siberia again. 168 isn't to far away so let's hope it's onto something.  The only thing that may scupper it is WAA isn't pushing into Greenland...yet

 

 

The ECM 12z for t+192 hours is bankable enough, whilst not overly astonishing I'd take it.

 

 

Edited December 4, 2015 by chionomaniac

[Ali1977]

ECM definitely looking seasonal , and stacked with potential with the NW SE flow that has reared its head on a few models over the last few days...I expect the GFS pub run may revert back towards the 06z.

240 again is good, with the potential of becoming v good going forward with high pressure pushing up North of central Canada.  Hopefully Tamara, Ian F and other great posters haven't dissapeared for long, as their comments are valued by most on this forum. Be nice to get their thoughts again.

Edited December 4, 2015 by chionomaniac
Removed quoted post

[damianslaw]

Trend emerging perhaps that we will loose the very mild atlantic flow through next week in exchange for something cooler from the north - its a growing trend and perfectly feasible and plausible. GFS has been running with the theme of high pressure building in a more favourable position over Canada to enable a more amplified flow and the jet to take a swing SE, now ECM is showing such a scenario. Early days lets see if they stick with this theme over the weekend.

In the meantime its a grim outlook, further heavy rain, gales and severe gales, flooding and mild temperatures - oh it must be early December the least likely period of the winter for anything particularly cold..

[SMU]

Eve all -

another positive step this eve - 

especially from the ECM sees a fat blocking high build up into Eastern canada - it really does put the buffers on the subtropical jet & also supports the shift of the vortex towards siberia -

 

its not perfect for the UK - but this mini wave 1 attack on the strat may allow for the pattern to develop into a wave 2 assault bringing ever colder solutions to NW & Northern Europe in the run up to xmas

 

S

[nick sussex]

Overall some signs of a change towards colder conditions but it looks very messy and unconvincing. The PV chunk left over Greenland is a nuisance.

Temperatures look like edging towards average or slightly below which will feel a lot colder given the very mild conditions of the last few weeks.

Unless that PV chunk over Greenland departs the scene then it will be difficult to tap into any much colder air as blocking will be unable to get far enough east.

The overall NH pattern shown on the ECM T240hrs does have some scope, the Euro slug Spawn of Satan high does depart the scene for a few days but its equally vile sibling is waiting in the wings to the sw!

I think its difficult to read too much into any detail given how complicated the set up looks and its crucial that any phasing with those southern stream lows only happens once the pattern is sufficiently east or better still doesn't happen at all.

 

[phil nw.]

Those +ve Canadian height anomalies are just throwing some uncertainty into week 2 wrt the behaviour of the jet.

While the 12z GFS run is fairly flat upstream ECM shows what can be achieved with just a little more ridging as we see colder air getting further south over the UK.

Even in this pattern with a low heights to the north we can still get these transistional cold shots as the jet is re-aligned nw-se.
There is plenty of cold air now lurking just to our north which wont require much amplification to bring it south,as we have seen already recently over Scotland.

The 12 z GEFs temp graph for Warks.

showing a cooling off in week 2 to something closer to normal.Signs perhaps of the mean jet tracking more south.

 

[knocker]

Neat graphic vis the lows over the eastern seaboard next week

Both these changes have big implications though. Hopefully this graphic explains them...

[Singularity]

The GFS 12z det. run brings back memories of last winter's chase, as lows from the U.S./Canada kept on moving faster than originally expected and arriving int he vicinity of Greenland soon enough to engage with the polar vortex and entice a lobe to stick around to our NW.

ECM makes a lot less of the trough/vortex interaction, and implies that it need not be the nail in the coffin for the next fortnight that GFS implies.

 

Both versions show great potential for the manner of wave breaking into the strat. that we're looking for this season, which keeps me happy for the time being.

[lassie23]

Hope this hasn't already been posted but some interesting model analysis going right through to March, by Simon Keeling over on weatherweb TV. Not the best of models analyzed, but interesting trends for February/March nonetheless. Late winter?? http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening all, it looks like the same old story from the models with regards to next week with the NorthWest of the Uk bearing the brunt, but im sure there will be some volatile weather in the south which the models wont be able to pick up on ...Its later next week that the operational models ie gfs and ecm  show a colder flow but still remaining unsettled,,,,,,