Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Methuselah]

Indeed - the last thing we need is yet more bloody rain!

[SMU]

Cracking GFS ensemble mean @ 162 if someone fancies posting it v the 06z

 

s

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

Cracking GFS ensemble mean @ 162 if someone fancies posting it v the 06z

 

s

It's something to watch Steve, a real east v west battle!

[Mark Neal.]

7 minutes ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

Cracking GFS ensemble mean @ 162 if someone fancies posting it v the 06z

 

s

There you go. 

Edited December 26, 2015 by Mark N

[shaky]

What an amazing mean chart that is!!!didnt expect it to look like that!!!ecm time folks...

[IDO]

The hi-res runs have picked up changes with the LP system, shortwave drama, and that has meant that the op and control and five other members (33%) have changed the whole outlook after D5:

  06z Control:

That sinking south of the LP drives WAA up via a ridge and blocks the easterly flow from coming any further. This happens just when the majority of members are going with a easterly flow. The mean for the T850s highlight this:

06z:    12z: 

Those shortwave dramas are notorious for cutting off easterlys. Bearing in mind both hi-res runs and 5 members go with this then there is a good chance we may have been scuppered just as the pattern was moving west. See what the ECM does, but that is what happened to the ECM this morning, although the shortwave went more SE.

 

Edited December 26, 2015 by IDO

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, shaky said:

Well after looking good gfs seems to have lost its marbles!!europe is left in no mans land at 162 hours!!!main thing is nothing has been shoved eastwards!!

not sure why the gfs has lost its marbles shaky, southern europe is often left in 'no mans land' when you have a strong azores high, strong northern european/scandinavian high , and a jet the cannot break through between these anticyclones.

the gfs is currently broadly in line with what the noaa 500mb charts suggest, which doesnt suggest the cold pool will arrive in the uk. of course these are only predictive charts and may well change, it would be awfully arrogant of me to think i know better then what these charts show - so ill accept them

 

[ukpaul]

So, as soon as hi-res op and control start showing something less blocked then we're supposed to look at them and ignore the ensembles? It's no wonder that newbies get confused. 

[IDO]

Just now, ukpaul said:

So, as soon as hi-res op and control start showing something less blocked then we're supposed to look at them and ignore the ensembles? It's no wonder that newbies get confused. 

Not necessarily, but at D5-D6 I would tend to side with the higher res runs, especially as the ECM op was also showing something similar on the 0z.

[shaky]

Ecm similar to ukmo at 96 hours!!!strong scandi high!!!

[lorenzo]

Trop vortex getting served here.. Nice !

[knocker]

No obvious sign of any significant change in tonight's GEFS anomalies.

[A.J]

5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ecm similar to ukmo at 96 hours!!!strong scandi high!!!

A chart or two to put some meat on the bones of these one line posts would be much appreciated to help those viewing this thread.....thanks 

[Snowman.]

Just now, knocker said:

No obvious sign of any significant change in tonight's GEFS anomalies.

Impressive signal for a -AO however the UK won't feel it unless those positive heights to the south are eroded. 

[radiohead]

The cold is plunging down to Greece on the ECM.  Doesn't look great for cold prospects down the line for us. We need to see that knocking on Germany's door. Not Cyrpus!

 

Edited December 26, 2015 by radiohead

[Snowman.]

Just now, Greenland1080 said:

So Lorenzo posts vortex getting served...Knocker...no change....no wonder weather is so complicated

 

Knockers charts do show the vortex getting served. But heights are positive in central Europe so it means bugger all to us, we need heights to lower in central Europe that is almost step one to any cold spell.

[Mark Neal.]

1050mb High to our NE at 140hrs. 

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

So Lorenzo posts vortex getting served...Knocker...no change....no wonder weather is so complicated

 

Perhaps I should have clarified by saying no significant change vis our weather although there hasn't been any significant change  with the upstream pattern in the last 24 hours.

Edited December 26, 2015 by knocker

[Chris K]

5 minutes ago, Mark N said:

1050mb High to our NE at 140hrs. 

Erghh but look at those heights stretching from the Azores across the South towards Europe. All it means for us there is further SW winds with Lows perhaps taking a more Northerly path than present. A respite though for some areas seeing the current flooding??

As others have pointed out - the cold heads South towards Greece and parts of the Med.

Edited December 26, 2015 by Chris K

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS at 192, FI but please let it be true, good respite for NW flooded areas, quite cold too, temp just 3C at midday, wanna see this as start of trend, higher pressure drying us out, us dry weather fans deserve a break

[Geordiesnow]

There does seem to be a trend of shifting everything eastwards although crucially no real signs of the block sinking. Unfortunately I just think the PV is too strong at the moment however further runs will most definatey needed before we know for certain. 

[lorenzo]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Perhaps I should have clarified by saying no significant change vis our weather although there hasn't been any significant change  with the upstream pattern in the last 24 hours.

Yes - 2 threads here, Knocker comparing the inter run GEFS, am looking at the W2 impacts and potential for Wave Activity Flux, more so having seen the Polar Cap Temp forecast just posted in the strat. thread. Sorry, to confuse. Simply put, the projecting WAA and trop. blocks are of interest in taking down the vortex. The enhanced blocking outlook via the mean chart illustrated earlier timing nicely with the fade out of the vortex intensification period. 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Personally, I still think the vortex over Greenland is looking far too angry to allow a proper sausage shaped scandi high. 

Additionally, pressure is still too high over the med - no genoa low.

[nick sussex]

So far on the ECM at T192hrs a bit of a stalemate however its good news that the models don't want to sink the block. As long as that remains to the ne we'll get another chance with more favourable trough disruption.

[Snowman.]

I personally believe the easterly by day 10 is unlikely but the trop vortex is being pinched and a re-roll of the dice later down the line when the troposphere is ready to support some kind of blocking is the best chance we have.

Edited December 26, 2015 by SN0WM4N