Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Jason M]

GFS p at 210 can be best summed up in one word.  ........ Boooooom.........

it's  the para 06 z run but a nice prelude to the evening runs coming out 

Edit: excuse the mini ramp 

 

Edited December 26, 2015 by Jason M

[MPG]

The -5 line never enters the southern part of the UK through the whole of the 6z output...

[Eskimo]

Niggly details time. 

12z is about 50 miles further west with its pattern compared to the 06z. High slightly further north and west. 

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Niggly details time. 

12z is about 50 miles further west with its pattern compared to the 06z. High slightly further north and west. 

Yes consequence of a sightly better jet profile with a tad more energy going SE, fingers crossed we can get some better trough disruption further down the line.

[Eskimo]

High now 200 miles further west at 120h than the 06z, although not as strong. 

[shaky]

Things defo further west this run which can only be a good thing!!!what a beauty of a scandi high at just 114 hours!!!ukmo please dont let us down!!!

[SMU]

GFS out to 132 - now x2 consecutive runs towards the UKMO

in detail 

* more energy undercutting

* better allignment of cold out east

* lower heights on the southern flank of the high

* better lattitude of the scandi high....

s

[Man With Beard]

48 minutes ago, Jason M said:

GFS para coming out at the moment.

ive seen worse charts at this timeframe 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?runpara=1

This run is actually quite plausible. T120 not an unlikely chart:

Then at T144, the Azores High attempts to ridge to Europe again:

This simply reinforces the south to north momentum on the west side of the Scandi High, and allows the whole block to back west a bit by T168

 

Back to the GFS 12Z ... the deeper Atlantic low at T132 could produce a similar effect later one

[radiohead]

Is the cold diving too far south again? May struggle to tap into it again on this run. Let's see what FI holds in store...

[shaky]

Well after looking good gfs seems to have lost its marbles!!europe is left in no mans land at 162 hours!!!main thing is nothing has been shoved eastwards!!

[radiohead]

Scandi High looked better on the 06Z at this time-frame.

Greece is heading into the freezer on this run...

Will be interesting to compare the UKMO later.

[Man With Beard]

By T162, this run has gone a bit AWOL. I would imagine a run which cuts off a low to that extent around the Azores area is not going to be well supported in any clusters. 

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

By T162, this run has gone a bit AWOL. I would imagine a run which cuts off a low to that extent around the Azores area is not going to be well supported in any clusters. 

Was going to post the same thing, pushing that low SE like that seems an unlikely outcome.

I'll take this run with an even bigger dose of salt than usual

Edited December 26, 2015 by Mucka

[TSNWK]

13 minutes ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

GFS out to 132 - now x2 consecutive runs towards the UKMO

in detail 

* more energy undercutting

* better allignment of cold out east

* lower heights on the southern flank of the high

* better lattitude of the scandi high....

s

What happened Steve? Sort went of the rails.. Cold all heading south east into the Balkans and the Scandi deflates and drifts south..

[SMU]

Pretty good UKMO tonight

144 sees the cold starting to get shoved west whilst the trigger low lines up in the atlantic

if we are going to get this cold is around the 192 - 216 mark...

 

s

[KyleHenry]

4 minutes ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

Pretty good UKMO tonight

144 sees the cold starting to get shoved west whilst the trigger low lines up in the atlantic

if we are going to get this cold is around the 192 - 216 mark...

 

s

WAA Europe assisted by WAA light on US West Cosast as it prevents further Cold air pool assisting Greenland 496Dam increasing and so allows more time for WAA Europe to hold.

Kara Sea HP to take hold. 

[knocker]

HP to the SE a weak surface feature

Edited December 26, 2015 by knocker

[Mucka]

GEM 12z

 

 

As much as I do not rate this model, I believe this outcome or close to is far more likely than this afternoons GFS has produced which frankly looks a bit whacky. I'd be surprised if the control supports it but you never know, might be picking something up.

Edited December 26, 2015 by Mucka

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GFS gone very mild into Jan.  Lots to sort out BUT it shows my fears as per my Monthly outlook.  It could go IMO a number of ways and all are plausible as the block isn't 'a million miles away'

 

BFTP

[Geordiesnow]

Still a huge question mark at just how much the block will affect our weather and many more runs are needed to sort out the detail side of things although again, an easterly still looks the outside bet. 

Whatever happens, it look like things will cool down somewhat as we head into January with colder air coming in from the West initially looks the more likely scenario. 

[knocker]

I'm still considering whether the best route to some drier weather in the NY is not from the east at all but from the European HP pushing up from the south. It is what the EC32 was pushing from around the 9th for a week but another question would be, if this was the case, whether it would push far enough north to help the NW. At this moment in time (never thought I would ever say that) it looks a better percentage play than the east.

[pyrotech]

2 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

It's very strange how all the rainfall in the UK seems to be concentrated on North Wales and Cumbria, have you seen the MET office rainfall anamoly chart, it's very dry most everywhere else, but the northwest is being drowned (no, not Kanye and Kim's kid).

Why is all the moisture so stuck in that rut? It's a tiny area on a global, and even a European scale?

I know the geological reasons for it, but it's just very strange that it's so intense in such a small area and for such a long period of time.

 

We can only hope for a change to drier and colder weather (hopefully, what's being shown in FI) although you can bet that it'll be blizzards that would bury the poor folk of Cumbria then :-(

Due to the position of the Euro high the low pressure systems are crossing Atlantic and due to blocking by the high , they are pushed North with the weather fronts trailing in a way that leaves them almost in same position each time. The rainfall is huge in these areas due to orographic  rainfall due to the topography. 

If you watch the movements of the low pressures you will see this and envisage where the weather fronts would sit.

Hope that helps.

Edited December 26, 2015 by pyrotech
choosing to crossing, predictive text !!!!

[gottolovethisweather]

1 minute ago, pyrotech said:

Due to the position of the Euro high the low pressure systems are choosing Atlantic and due to blocking by the high , they are pushed North with the weather fronts trailing in a way that leaves them almost in same position each time. The rainfall is huge in these areas due to orographic  rainfall due to the topography. 

If you watch the movements of the low pressures you will see this and envisage where the weather fronts would sit.

Hope that helps.

Indeed and this is the biggest concern pre the New Year period. I couldn't believe the track the BBC forecasts were showing for Tuesday's beast of a low, it has it swinging NE at first as expected but then straight Northwards towards Iceland and onto the North Pole, very odd but supposedly feasible. I wouldn't look much past this date in any detail but hints are that the New Year will see a change to a drier spell, regarding Easterlies I'll believe them when they get into <t+48 hours, so no consideration over them from me right now. Storms, deluges, some drier spells (tomorrow looks nice) and then hope of a pattern change of sorts come the New Year is how I see things. 

[knocker]

Just now, Greenland1080 said:

I doubt those getting flooded will care knocker...east or from south who cares..las long as they get some respite.

Oh I agree, nor do I, I was just trying to consider a route that might offer some. I don't give a toss about from where it comes.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

Totally agree knocker...if we get something from the South which drys out those in NW yes please..

There is an on going heavy price to pay for all this very mild mush with the northwest in the firing line more than anywhere else and the models are showing more angry depressions piling in from the Atlantic after a quieter start next week...it's a recurring nightmare and I feel so sorry for the people who are bearing the brunt of this horrific winter!