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Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

UKMO at 96h is a lot better!

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

UKMO at 96h is a lot better!

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

 

Yes better high alignment and better undercut at 96h than GFS, fingers crossed.

GFS is an improvement with the jet further South, just need better initial undercut

Edited by Mucka
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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

I don't see the problem with the GFS in my opinion, yeah it's not widespread snow and bitter cold, but it's a damn sight better than this!

gfs-0-6.png?12

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

GFS

 

Low pressure disrupting SE, high pressure retrogressing to Greenland, cold air moving West. Not bad since it is not as good as UKMO at 96h!

 

gfsnh-0-168.png?12

Edited by Mucka
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
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Posted (edited)

:bomb:UKMO Boom!

 

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Edited by Mucka
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Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Posted

Much better from the GFS, slight Atlantic buckle in the jet and we have things on a more southerly trajectory. Opened up the positive possibilities in this run from here on in.

UKMO, oh my....

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

UKMO Boom!

 

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Great T144hrs , if the low near the UK can separate from low heights near Greenland and continue se then theres a chance to pull some of that deeper cold westwards. Either way there should be enough cold air to the east to develop some snow on the northern flank of the low.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
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Posted

MUCH better 12z's with GFS trending exactly as i wanted to see:D

Added to that the UKMO looks very interesting once again, and of course Exeters update its all gravy baby!!:yahoo::cold:

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Great T144hrs , if the low near the UK can separate from low heights near Greenland and continue se then theres a chance to pull some of that deeper cold westwards. Either way there should be enough cold air to the east to develop some snow on the northern flank of the low.

Yes easily the chart of the Winter for me so far. Snow Midlands Northwards I would think and that low can't really go anywhere except sink SE and drag in cold air further South so snow line moving South through to 168h for me. Small danger the low stalls and fills but pressure looks low enough for it to push far enough East.

Looking forward to in depth analysis from others.

Edited by Mucka
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yes easily the chart of the Winter for me so far. Snow Midlands Northwards I would think and that low can't really go anywhere except sink SE and drag in cold air further South so snow line moving South through to 168h for me. Small danger the low stalls and fills but pressure looks low enough for it to push far enough East.

Looking forward to in depth analysis from others.

I like ukmo mucka, it will have the mildies running for the exits !!!:D

On a serious note it ties in with exeters update of colder air digging in and the magic s word becoming more and more relevant.

That wedge of high pressure across the GIN sea is the key imo.

Edited by northwestsnow
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Where is steve murr!!!need a booom from him!!!!!no wonder the metoffice is coming around slowly to the idea of a colder new year!!!these charts you cannot ignore!!

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

MUCH better 12z's with GFS trending exactly as i wanted to see:D

Added to that the UKMO looks very interesting once again, and of course Exeters update its all gravy baby!!:yahoo::cold:

AhhhHHH Bisto!

GEM rolling out, good improvements on previous run whichever way it heads.

gemnh-0-102.png?12

 

GFS still not on board so caution required but all the output this evening has headed the right way so far for coldies. Let's get JMA on board and hope for ECM to back the UKMO and then we can dare to dream.

Edited by Mucka
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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted

GFS 12z certainly doesn't look any better to my eye - how is it much better?

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MPG Enthusiast

MPG

Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
Posted
1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

The twitter chart is a snapshot at T348hrs -15days.The noaa chart is the average spread of 6 day ht anomalies from day 8-14days ahead.

You are looking at 2 different models as well- one is ECM based and the noaa is from the American outputs.

In spite of all that though there are similarities if you look at the tramlines-thicknesses-we see a trough over the eastern side of NA extending into the Atlantic.The anomaly coloured dashed lines are just a measure of positive or negative heights against climatoligy.

I hope that helps MPG.:)

 

Thanks very much.

23 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

Yes better high alignment and better undercut at 96h than GFS, fingers crossed.

GFS is an improvement with the jet further South, just need better initial undercut

Why are we still chasing the easterly?

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Where is steve murr!!!need a booom from him!!!!!no wonder the metoffice is coming around slowly to the idea of a colder new year!!!these charts you cannot ignore!!

Just on his way back from exter after having a word with the script writers :cold-emoji:

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted
Just now, Froze were the Days said:

GFS 12z certainly doesn't look any better to my eye - how is it much better?

I'd agree with that. Looks wet to me, not white! Can't help wondering what the 850s are on the meto as well. I suspect rain for many there as well. Meto def better than GFS though!

 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

GFS 12z certainly doesn't look any better to my eye - how is it much better?

In terms of the weather this particular run gives the UK it isn't any better but in terms of the big picture and moving toward the Euros it as an improvement  with the jet further South and high pressure extending further West. Ignore anything beyond 168h for now.

Edited by Mucka
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted
15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

MUCH better 12z's with GFS trending exactly as i wanted to see:D

Added to that the UKMO looks very interesting once again, and of course Exeters update its all gravy baby!!:yahoo::cold:

I must admit I'm a bit surprised by that as I didn't have you down a lover of wet and windy courtesy a strong jet. Just shows how wrong one can be.

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted (edited)

a few posts are more suited to the weather banter thread with some OTT ramping one-liners.....please keep it constructive in here, most importantly, think before posting......thanks :)

Edited by ajpoolshark
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