Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Polar Maritime]

So on that note lets move on to what the models are showing please..

[A.J]

indeed.............lets be friendly folks....season of goodwill and all that.....

[Cleeve Hill]

I like the look of ECM tonight. We know the verification stats for ECM are the best of all models but only up to 96 hours and at 240 they verify on 30% of the time so best to disregard anything at that period. 

What I have noticed over the past week / 10 days is the tendency for a High to try and build north of Scotland - Iceland - Norway. It only tentative but it's consistently their which is helping move those LP systems into Europe. The longer this continues the better. 

 

 

[The Enforcer]

23 hours ago, The Enforcer said:

On 28/12/2015 at 8:12 PM, The Enforcer said:

23 hours ago, The Enforcer said:

Now at T+192:

Worse. There is a bigger mild sector, the polar continental air is not over any of the UK and over Scandinavia the cold air seems to be circulating north-westwards, rather than south-westwards in the direction of the UK as previously. Even the polar maritime air to north-west is a bit further away too.

These ECM operational runs are not moving in the right direction, but at least there is still plenty of uncertainty.

Now at T+216:

Better or worse? I certainly don't like the appearance of that mild sector approaching the south-west, prompting an early *Mild Sector Alert*.

Now at T+192:

Worse. There is a bigger mild sector, the polar continental air is not over any of the UK and over Scandinavia the cold air seems to be circulating north-westwards, rather than south-westwards in the direction of the UK as previously. Even the polar maritime air to north-west is a bit further away too.

These ECM operational runs are not moving in the right direction, but at least there is still plenty of uncertainty.

Now at T+168:

Better. Polar Continental air is into eastern counties and flow is south-westerly. However, pesky mild sector is still there and Polar Maritime air to west is slightly further away.

Edited December 30, 2015 by The Enforcer

[Nick F]

Well, just when you think the cold from the east is a lost cause, EC pulls one from the hat that has the UK on the cusp of cold and dry enough surface continental air from the east to allow sleet and snow to fall to lower levels away from the far south mid next week - we even get a brief Scandi surface high at t+168, before its shunted away east by the Atlantic.

A tall ask given the strength of the Atlantic, to see if we get further corrections south of the jet post t+168, as this would mean subsequent lows coming east over the Atlantic may go SE rather than NE. I say this, because the 12z EPS mean this evening has a fairly strong +height signal over the Norwegian Sea into Greenland:

looking more closely at our neck of the woods, the EPS mean looks quie encouraging wrt 500mb height anomaly and 850mb temp anomaly mid next week when that brief Scandi high appears on the det.

The block to the east may have not quite have given up getting cold enough air this far west for snow other than high ground in the north just yet ...

Edited December 30, 2015 by Nick F

[karlos1983]

I do have a concern about the last few model outputs. 

Is it just me, or have we gone from accepting that the easterly is not going to occur, but looking at the blocking that has been modelled over the pole, which is now being watered down with each run? 

Now what looks like the form horse is a big robust high that could very well end up slap bang on top of us. Yeah it's nice n all, but not my bag that's for sure. Emotion aside I would much prefer raging storms slamming our shores. 

I just feel that the WAA created by Frank was to Far East for us to really benefit. Had that happened nearer Greenland locale, we would be as good as in here as it relates to where a block sets up and cold ends up in mid lattitudes.

Cheers

Karl

[karlos1983]

20 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

I am currently in Portpatrick, south west Scotland Coast and whilst I can say it did not rain particularly much here, you only had to go a few miles in land (Newton Stewart) to find the worst floods for 50 years. So it most definitely did rain in south west Scotland as a general rule. 

 

As as for the models, I'm finding the overall Northern Hemisphere pattern very interesting. It's not like it has been for the last 6 weeks or so. 

Well one thing for sure is that it certainly wasn't meant to rain like it has in my part of the country today! 

[PolarWarsaw]

During the last couple of days we have seen things trend away from a colder/snowier scenario, into a worryingly wet one. That's not good for any of us at the moment. I can't remember seeing such an amount of lying water on roads that don't normally have problems. I really feel for the people of Northern England and Scotland at the moment. I do think as many have pointed out in this and the strat thread that the vortex is coming under increasing pressure and is likely to weaken at some point in the next 2-4 weeks. We could potentially end up with another very cold March. That's just my opinion anyway. 

 

 

 

Happy New Year everyone!

Edited December 30, 2015 by ajpoolshark
let the moderators do the moderating, thank you

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

17 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I do have a concern about the last few model outputs. 

Is it just me, or have we gone from accepting that the easterly is not going to occur, but looking at the blocking that has been modelled over the pole, which is now being watered down with each run? 

Now what looks like the form horse is a big robust high that could very well end up slap bang on top of us. Yeah it's nice n all, but not my bag that's for sure. Emotion aside I would much prefer raging storms slamming our shores. 

I just feel that the WAA created by Frank was to Far East for us to really benefit. Had that happened nearer Greenland locale, we would be as good as in here as it relates to where a block sets up and cold ends up in mid lattitudes.

Cheers

Karl

Slightly O/T I know; apologies Mods, but I would like, if I may, to say in-thread rather than via. PM, that our personal preferences may have to take a back seat to the reality of the current situation.  I'd suggest that the heights to our south-west or, indeed, directly over the UK, would be welcomed by so many who have seen enough rain to last them into the middle of 2016.   Bringing things back to model discussion, would heights in such a position be likely to form a mid-latitude block , thereby reducing the chances of a Euro high re-establishing the warm, wet SWerly flow that's done so much damage already this winter?

Edited December 30, 2015 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[snowrye]

Must be winter,all the toys being thrown out of prams,lets stick to what the models are showing,and discuss it as adults,as someone has pointed out,weve lost a few people over the last weeks,months

[Ali1977]

Correct perfect storm...back to the weather - not gfuqhgfpjhing!!

Anyway, I feel tomorrow will be much more positive for coldies, once the models have a better idea what's going on after the WAA is pumped into the Arctic.

[Mark wheeler]

As much as I want cold and snow . I regard knockers input very important on this thread as he puts a different angle of approach to what he sees. We have many great people on this thread that I am learning from which include both Nick and knocker. So please no in fighting as it invetably will drive people away. Am addicted to this thread at the moment . So please keep up the good work . 

Thanks Mark

[Polar Maritime]

Any more crap other than friendly model discussion will be deleted. Lets please move on.

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

Any more crap other than friendly model discussion will be deleted. Lets please move on.

Thanks PM.Any chance of a snow fix is an improvement from what the UK has had up to press.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015123012/ECM1-168.GIF?30-0

[karlos1983]

18 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Slightly O/T I know; apologies Mods, but I would like, if I may, to say in-thread rather than via. PM, that our personal preferences may have to take a back seat to the reality of the current situation.  I'd suggest that the heights to our south-west or, indeed, directly over the UK, would be welcomed by so many who have seen enough rain to last them into the middle of 2016.   Bringing things back to model discussion, would heights in such a position be likely to form a mid-latitude block , thereby reducing the chances of a Euro high re-establishing the warm, wet SWerly flow that's done so much damage already this winter?

Look I understand the issues around the country with flooding which is why I said emotion aside, so don't pull that one.

i only had one little scentence on what my preference was, but well done.

so here is my backup perfect storm, thanks for the feedback from a respected poster such as yourself.......

ECM for example

12z on 27th failed easterly but potential a plenty 

 

28th ok but Atlantic "angry"er

29th less blocky heights not favourable imo 

 

With the pv lobe in a less than perfect location 

Edited December 30, 2015 by karlos1983

[geordiekev]

Looks like a good chance of the white stuff for some lucky few as the New year rolls in. Here's for a happier, chillier 2016, so let's not lose the faith guys n gals.

It's only weather after all !!!

Edited December 30, 2015 by geordiekev

[karlos1983]

To be honest if you can't post your opinion of what you see without you being shot down because apperently you don't know what your talking about, then good luck to this forum growing the numbers from people learning or daring to post. I'm no expert, but I'll try, and am 100% open to constructive criticism or even correcting what is just wrong, you won't see me saying anything derogatory to anyone in here, pro or not.

Edited December 30, 2015 by karlos1983

[Bullseye]

Seems yesterday's ECM 12z also affected the suspected pattern change in USA too but after tonight's run seems to have corrected itself back to pattern similar to what Mondays runs where showing. Hope dies last as they say ha!

[Timmytour]

The weather's gonna be what the weather's gonna be and no letter let alone word written on a forum is going to change anything, no matter how bad things have been and could get.

A gut feel from my part going back many years is that there's always seems to end up being a respite from a prevailing form of weather despite times of seeing the models offer no apparent relief from it in their outlooks.

i can't help wondering, with the "spike" in the North Pole temperatures courtesy of Storm Frank as is now being reported , how the models can react to this when it's a pretty much unprecedented.....what algorithms are they working on?   Could it end up on them coming across dramatically different data in that area to how they had projected it in the short-term  and, as a consequence, dramatically flip from what they have been showing?

[bluearmy]

Over the years we have oft commented on 'how can the models deal with this ' or ' the models always struggle with that'

this is usually in the face of downgrades to a potential wintry or summery pattern. 

As as the models have upgraded over the years,  it seems to me that they do quite a good job and it's pretty rare for things to flip unexpectedly. the strong Atlantic low for next week which blows away the blocking has been forecast very consistently by the ECM ens since it appeared at day 14 last week. there was hope that it might disrupt se against the block by the time we got within high ens ens but alas, this seems a forlorn hope. there is plenty to be optimistic about for coldies in the mid to long term but I think the short term is no longer much of an option now.  The scots may think differently next week. Their raffle ticket is the right colour at least.

[johnholmes]

some ideas 

net wx post 2206 30 dec 2015.doc

[Day 10]

Cold so close!

 

[Mucka]

snowline 144h is Northern England on this output, still some mileage in this but mileage may vary according to preferences

[Captain Shortwave]

For what it is worth, the pub run is a little better.

It brings Scotland and Northern England into the zone for potential snow. The 12z had nowhere except Shetland.

Synoptically it is miles away from the ECM solution though. Low heights on the GFS west of Scandinavia whilst the ECM has a weak cut off high.

Edited December 30, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[Daniel*]

I know we tend to look ahead in here. But as 2016 begins it seems parts of UK, could see some snow to welcome the New Year - to low levels as well!