Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[kevvo]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Maybe you should watch Gavin Partridge excellent video analysing the charts and the winter of 1946-7 even he states its one of his pet hates when people say the winter didnt start until late Jan 1947..

And for so long, I've been lurking here and got the wrong one! 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Are things really that bad @nick sussex you're ramping up the NAVGEM?! It does look good mind!! lol

 

I wouldn't say ramping that would imply I had confidence in its output. Merely using it to show the type of evolution that people should be looking out for and yes its T144hrs output is very nice!lol

[Essex snowman]

Afternoon all I'm still hopeful the models will turn the cold back on hey frosty got your Stella waiting to drink in the snow may have to wait but not to long :-) 

[Frosty.]

Just now, Essex snowman said:

 hey frosty got your Stella waiting to drink in the snow may have to wait but not to long :-) 

Cheers

After a record warm winter so far I think the next few weeks or more are certainly looking better for those of us who like our winters to be more seasonal and with all the bitter cold to the NE...at least parts of the UK could see some snow..fingers crossed!.

[Frost HoIIow]

54 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

I may be missing something but has the easterly under discussion from around the 5th of January not always been modeled to be a largely Scottish event? There's still a possibility of some pretty cold conditions for much of the country to my eyes, the GFS 06 hz run keeping this trend going.

Yes. The coldest uppers stay over the other side of the North Sea on the GFS 6z. However with an easterly flow you don't need to rely completely on the upper air temps for snow or living on high ground as the dew point is usually a good deal lower from a continental easterly feed as opposed to one from another source like Polar Maritime.

Edited December 30, 2015 by Medlock Vale

[Essex snowman]

FINGERS CROSSED HEY FROSTY NOT MUCH TO ASK FOR IN A WINTER IS A BIT OF SNOW IM NOT GREEDY SAY FROM NOVEMBER TILL MARCH THAT WILL DO ME ANYTHING IS BETTER THAN THE RAIN AND WIND SO HERES HOPING IL SIT BEHIND SOFA NOW WAITING FOR MODELS TO OPEN ARTIC FLOODGATES 

[Carlrg]

Some really cool dry air out to our NE.

 

We just need to tap into it!

Edited December 30, 2015 by Carlrg

[Essex snowman]

JUST TO SAY ALL POSTERS ON HERE GET MY UTTER RESPECT EVERYONE IS WELCOME TO THERE OPINION SO IF your MILD OR HOT OR COLD STORMS FAN KERP UP THE GOOD WORK ALL AND THANK YOU FOR MAKING THIS FORUM WHAT IT IS 

[mcweather]

As may have come across in my sparse postings I,m of the opinion that developments into January will be a slow chiller ( I can't bring myself to use the phrase slow burner what with the blowtorch crap we've been enduring) and this mornings gfs 06z FI is the sort of thing I mean with a trough over us that becomes colder over time as the high latitude blocking starts to feed colder sourced air into the mix.  I.m still of the opinion that it will be well into January or early Feb before real nationwide deep cold arrives and with it the risk of more widespread snowfall away from the usual prime spots.

Edited December 30, 2015 by mcweather

[knocker]

An idea of the 850mb circulation at1500 on the 3rd.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/01/03/1500Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-2.08,43.71,819

 

 

 

[Gibby]

2 hours ago, Woollymummy said:

Where is Gibby? I have not seen any updates from him for ages. 

Hi folks. I decided to take a break from forum posting my analysis as my business is very seasonal and requires a lot of my time at the back end of the year. I have always been reluctant to maintain posting at this time of year anyway  as the forums seem less friendly and sometimes antagonistic towards each other and a while ago towards me from a few members (not here I hasten to add). However, I will return as my time becomes more plentiful in the New Year but in the meantime you can still read my daily analysis on my website on :-

http://norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

[mcweather]

I,m sure this community awaits your unbiased and level headed views of the models with great anticipation Gibby.

I for one will very much welcome the day of your return to posting your excellent analysis.

Your contributions are very much missed.

[Tim Brawn]

Another Yo Yo day of predictions by the looks . Love reading all the views but all we want to know is when it will be cold enough for a drop of the whitestuff. I still find it confusing that so called weather models can be so different at the same timescales makes little sense . can somebody explain in less than 100 words , Ta

[Singularity]

As far as I'm concerned, we need that trough to push through the UK and allow our focus for ridges to shift to the W/NW of the UK as opposed to NE. I know this opinion is shared by a number of others on here, and agree with the notion of 'no pain, no gain' being applicable for Jan 2016.

It's just a big shame that this will mean a lot more flooding problems up north unless the trough can shift further south than currently indicated. I fear that we may see something not far off November 2009 which is the wettest single month that I've recorded in the past two decades - but live in hope that it won't be sustained for as long in Jan 2016. 

Looking at the ECM 00z det. +240 chart, the behaviour of the trough meeting the SW tip of Greenland catches my eye, as Steve Murr has in times past spoken of a split of low heights there as being a precursor to substantial blocking across Greenland.

The trouble with the GFS det. runs out to +240 is that they keep phasing disturbances with the mid-Atlantic trough, pumping up and sustaining it in-situ, as opposed to allowing a disturbance across the U.S. to move more slowly and interact with the jet independently of the existing trough, such as ECM does. Only in that way can we have the mid-Atlantic trough winding down and moving through the UK, opening the door to height rises to our NW and, ideally, W. 

The GFS 06z det. does have a good go at that late-on (below-left), albeit with the ridge coming up more through the UK - but that's plenty sufficient enough IF the ridge can get around the issue of shortwaves trying to keep it from reaching up to Greenland. The outcome isn't helped by the fact that the Arctic blocking moves in strange ways during that period, being suddenly drawn as far west as central Canada. 

The parallel 18z GFS det. from yesterday made a better effort of it (below-central and right).

       

I know these charts are way out in time, but I find them worth considering due to how well they fit with expected trends in response to the MJO and stratospheric activity.

 

 

 

[Eskimo]

Minuscule details but the GFS is throwing out a better undercut. 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

Gibby your work is appreciated and none bias and lots of respect from myself and many others.

 

models this morning where heart breaking after days of ramping this morning I was looking at double decker buses lol.

problem is things didn't come with in a realistic time frame.

but there is clearly  massive background noise most like from decreasing Nino mjo and without the ideas of major blocking and vortex attacks.

stratosphere also busy and this will really make models work hard for there outputs.

but because of these reasons there is also chance of upgrades to colder theme and cooler is a start.

fingers crossed things might be positive again on the 12z

[phil nw.]

Just a general reminder before we start on the 12z runs please try and keep on topic and post any other stuff to the appropiate threads.Items such as Met office outlooks,past Winters and banter all have their own threads.

This will all help to make this thread easier to read for everyone interested in your views on the charts.

Thanks all.

[london and south east kent]

Hi all I think the gfs will push the lows south for a undercut on this run .

[MR EXTREMES]

its the south and south west that will suffer nasty little storm wet and very windy

[MR EXTREMES]

could the low to the west of Ireland stop scandi ridge progressing west or will it help looks like ridge retreating back northeast.

Edited December 30, 2015 by emotional rollercoaster

[johnholmes]

26 minutes ago, Tim Brawn said:

Another Yo Yo day of predictions by the looks . Love reading all the views but all we want to know is when it will be cold enough for a drop of the whitestuff. I still find it confusing that so called weather models can be so different at the same timescales makes little sense . can somebody explain in less than 100 words , Ta

1 word

NO

[Daniel*]

3 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

The big question is, will it help us to go cold down the line - the big unknown!

I would say so..

I'd have thought if it were not for such I reckon we'd be entrenched in THIS for winter 15/16. The knock-on effects may not be truly known by the models at this stage, with WAA ongoing. The great escape is on? 

[Man With Beard]

The development of the 1000mb low just SSW of the main low is one to watch. It's development - or non development - could have a major role on the fine detail for the UK by T120.  To prolong the cold (in the north that is!!), we are looking for it to interact with the main low in such a way that does not allow a major mild sector to develop behind it, and preferably drags the main low into Europe with it. The second low behind it could be useful for that too. Doesn't quite look like ti'll manage it this time.

All still in the balance - though no need to buy a sledge in the south based on this run so far!!

Edited December 30, 2015 by Man With Beard

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

all i can  say i cannot  see any let up to this horrible weather looks like more rain heading our way, some areas on high ground might see some white stuff  if they are lucky

[MR EXTREMES]

its toppling that colder air closer and closer to the north east t120 hrs not bad