Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Methuselah]

In the last five minutes, I've seen 'forecasts' for a snow-fest from the east and a PM incursion from the north-west...I'm getting confused!

[Summer Sun]

Is ECM going to be updating earlier soon? the only reason I ask is this tweet from TWO

 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

I did say nick this aint over yet and could still get even better!!this really reminds me of january 2013 right now except 10 days earlier this time!!!over to the 18z in a few hours!!!

I'd keep the sledge in storage for a while yet! lol We still need to see more changes but that increase in amplitude upstream at T120hrs helps to carve the jet more se. I know people don't like the Azores high but a ridge extension north ahead of the troughing over the ne USA  to slow down the pattern and help to usher shortwave energy se would be nice, a bit like the NAVGEM which resolutely refuses to play the understudy!

[gottolovethisweather]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

In the last five minutes, I've seen 'forecasts' for a snow-fest from the east and a PM incursion from the north-west...I'm getting confused!

It's called jumping all over ONE CHART in ISOLATION before the run is COMPLETED, Pete. 

Sorry to shout but we all need to heed learn these lessons, as told by the wisest heads in here. Whether you include me in that bracket is debatable, but that is missing the point of course. 

Edited December 30, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[warrenb]

ECM and we are back to square one. Record CET for January ?

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, gottolovethisweather said:

It's called jumping all over ONE CHART in ISOLATION before the run is COMPLETED, Pete. 

Sorry to shout but we should learn these lessons as told by the wisest heads in here, whether you include me in that bracket is debatable, but that is missing the point of course. 

I was trying to be subtle!

[gottolovethisweather]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I was trying to be subtle!

I hear you. Not my style, evidently.  Anyway, darts time and shandy time again for me.

 

In summary:

A good ECM and whilst NOT a bitter cold run, some days will feel distinctly chilly, more so away from my patch in tropical Southern England where we're set for a few bouts of rain ourselves for a change.

Edited December 30, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, warrenb said:

ECM and we are back to square one. Record CET for January ?

Sorry but 72hrs is not even set and stone yet never mind 216-240hr

[bluearmy]

ECM T192 shows snow cover n Midlands northwards and more so with elevation

will be different next run

[warrenb]

Just now, booferking said:

Sorry but 72hrs is not even set and stone yet never mind 216-240hr

Just commenting on the models. On the 216 and 240 charts, (I know it is a long way off but JFF), the slug returneth.

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, warrenb said:

ECM and we are back to square one. Record CET for January ?

You're basing this on one output at T216hrs? The record that could go is more likely to be the biggest difference between two consecutive winter months CET value. So after the record breaking mild December a much colder January in relation. That would be my punt at this time.

[MR EXTREMES]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Sorry but 72hrs is not even set and stone yet never mind 216-240hr

sorry ive got to agree its nowhere near done deal yet but one hell of a rollercoaster lol

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Sorry but 72hrs is not even set and stone yet never mind 216-240hr

Nothing is ever set in stone, booferking? But I really do want to see a snow-fest. Maybe from the east, in March and the north in April? Anyhoo - it's all too far out for the models to predict?

[Bullseye]

Back to square one in what way? What the models where showing few days back or back to square one as in Decemeber we are experiencing? I enjoy the forum alot although I don't understand the patterns the models show this I why I refrain from posting charts. I don't mean to be harsh but I do ask myself if others understand charts too, my time on this forum has allowed me to take notice when certain members post. Long story short I get confused by some posts and seems other members too.

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

sorry ive got to agree its nowhere near done deal yet but one hell of a rollercoaster lol

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2015 by Polar Climate

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ECM T192 shows snow cover n Midlands northwards and more so with elevation

will be different next run

Yeah, next run will show snow line Bristol northwards

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 charts

GFS                                                                                          ECM

UKMO                                                                                      GEM

 

A real mix of solutions, though personally with the development of low heights off the west coast of Norway which seems to happen far too often in situations with blocking to our north east. At this point it makes me feel a little uneasy about the ECM solution which does briefly deliver snow to low levels before the Atlantic blasts through.

Again both upstream and downstream developments need to be watched, in particular where the cold pool to our east goes.

Edited December 30, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[Day 10]

Still plenty to be upbeat about from the ecm for coldies,

Today and by 168

Edited December 30, 2015 by Polar Climate

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

very interesting cfs very high pressure into the heart of the arctic

Don't think any of the models will be much different at plus 6 hours lol. Or are you being ironic?

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Jersey Northwards please

I will keep fingers crossed for you

[danthetan]

   UKMO Fax charts closer to the ECM solution at 72 hrs 

[blizzard81]

15 minutes ago, Polar Climate said:

Still plenty to be upbeat about from the ecm for coldies,

Today and by 168

Great post. Why? Because how accurate are the models post 168hrs? Answer - they are much less accurate than 168hrs and before. Work the rest out for yourselves

Like I said earlier, this isn't over by a long shot.

Edited December 30, 2015 by blizzard81

[phil nw.]

18 minutes ago, booferking said:

Sorry but 72hrs is not even set and stone yet never mind 216-240hr

Pretty good agreement though amongst all 3 at T72hrs.Here's the ECM and the MO fax

a glance at the others will all show the same.

I see little change overall this evening compared to yesterday.

Tonight's ECM at T144 against yesterday's at at T168hrs.both with pressure and 850hPa temps.

the same picture really from GFS as well.Trough disruption across the UK towards Europe.The deep cold just brushing the far NE of Scotland.

Certainly looking colder but only more seasonal so little chance of lowland snow as it stands but plenty of rain over the next week unfortunately.

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

That looks a great chart for coldies, am I correct?? Also better for those who are in flood hit areas.

I need to expand slightly on my rather cryptic original answer. If and when this evolution occurs, and depending where the surface HP sets up, it does open up the possibilities of a more colder SE flow over the UK. Key word 'possibilities'.

[nick sussex]

Keep the faith Phil. At least the cold air is close compared to December when it was on Mars! A few tweeks could make a big difference to the UK in terms of snow.