Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[bluearmy]

The para ECM is not as far south as previous runs. The day 6/7 trough sinks se allowing a brief influx of cold uppers from the east but the Atlantic heads back behind a transitional ridging from the sw.  Very little snowfall on this run away from n elevation. 

Have to to say that the gfs ops seem to be doing a pretty good job on leading the way on this. The ECM seems to be a day or two behind with the direction of travel. best guidance probably remains the ens mean (don't shoot the messenger) 

 

[Jason M]

06 GEFS are not particularly great either. Tbh, with a many of the charts showing large areas of low pressure stuck in the mid Atlantic the classic response to that is the building of heights over Iberia and SE Europe. A fair number of the GEFS are starting to show signs of this.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=240&code=12&mode=0&carte=0

They are not all like the chart above, but the return of the slug cannot be ruled out. Personally I think we are a very long way from anything notably cold. Of course that doesn't mean over the next couple of weeks some people in the north or on high ground might not see some snow. Hopefully having said that the next ice age will show in the evening runs 

 

 

[Carlrg]

An Easterly showing on the never reaches of the NAVGEM. Doesn't look too warm at all.

 

2m temps don't look that low though.

 

Best keep me gob shut.

 

Edited December 30, 2015 by Carlrg

[blizzard81]

9 minutes ago, Carlrg said:

An Easterly showing on the never reaches of the NAVGEM. Doesn't look too warm at all.

 

2m temps don't look that low though.

 

Best keep me gob shut.

 

That puts the final nail in the coffin for the easterly then

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

why do people keep saying  1947 did not kick off until end of January ...when its complete nonsense.!..sorry for having to keep sayng this.

Maybe because it didn't! Sorry if you haven't analysed the chart archive..

[Daniel*]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

To digress a little. GFS temp animation of the Arctic

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/

Thanks for link..

Incredible the WAA gets to 90N.

[cheeky_monkey]

8 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Maybe because it didn't! Sorry if you haven't analysed the chart archive..

Maybe you should watch Gavin Partridge excellent video analysing the charts and the winter of 1946-7 even he states its one of his pet hates when people say the winter didnt start until late Jan 1947..

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Thanks for link..

Incredible the WAA gets to 90N.

The big question is, will it help us to go cold down the line - the big unknown!

[Nouska]

1 hour ago, weatherguru14 said:

Have you noticed how people always mention the extremes when it comes to model reading?.. In the summer it was always  2006  and how the summer could end up like that.. The models were not showing that .And  right now they are not showing any extremes of the likes of 1947.. The jet  stream is very active  and its pumping low after low our way.. which is very typical at the time of year.. Doesn't take a genius to work out its not going to get cold enough or settled enough for snow.. Time will tell if  it we get any prolonged snow in January or February. Unlikely if the same weather partner continues..

It might be useful to actually look at January 1947 in the same format as we view the models on Meteociel ..

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=1&hour=0&year=1947&map=4&mode=2

There's a lot of similarities to now in the WAA up to Kara/Barents but the big difference in current modelling is that the heights keep on going further east whereas back then they lingered long enough for the next push of heights from the Azores to link up.

[Man With Beard]

We could easily miss a weather event of a different kind whilst looking for this easterly. The GEFS ensembles show some major storms for next Monday. Happy first day back at work - that's if you get there!!

 

[Woollymummy]

Where is Gibby? I have not seen any updates from him for ages. 

[Weathizard]

First look at the output this morning the output is a total mess and got to say disappointing feels like we've missed a chance, the jet and orientation of the Russian/Scandi high just won't allow energy to dig south enough. So within 168 I would say country wide cold is dead still a chance for Scotland and the far north possibly, after mid January onwards things could get very interesting... It's frustrating to some I'm sure but we essentially need to roll the dice again.

Brings to the forefront of the mind just how difficult is actually is to get the cold to our shores, especially from an easterly direction. 

[Methuselah]

Can we please refrain from discussing past winters (1947) in here? Here is the proper thread: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84396-past-winters-discussion/

[Frosty.]

Potentially much colder conditions are still in the new update covering early to mid January, especially for the NE of the UK with a risk of snow at times, especially on hills but to lower levels later and looking at the latest models I can see what they mean. So we are entering the most interesting period for coldies so far this winter, it's looking generally less mild than the relentless very mild blowtorch SW / SLY airflows we have endured with all the extra tropical moisture, it looks more seasonal into the new year, still with bouts of wet and windy weather and with the potential for significantly colder conditions too. 

[blizzard81]

20 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

Where is Gibby? I have not seen any updates from him for ages. 

Indeed and also Teits. 

[nick sussex]

A bit like after the Lord Mayors show this morning with the UKMO going from the better solution last night to not so good today.

The infamous NAVGEM shows shocking consistency I would have thought it would have bailed out by now but its output would bring in that colder air to the east past T144hrs, the ridge it develops between the UK low and troughing over western Greenland is what you'd want to see. Indeed yesterday it was the only clear support for the UKMO solution.

Its obvious that the other outputs are underwhelming as I'm talking about the NAVGEM!

Looking at the ECM ensembles surprising to still see that colder cluster survive, given the outputs are going the wrong way I thought those ensembles would start jumping ship in the earlier timeframe. There looks like a clear signal from those to bring the Atlantic further east towards day ten but I think earlier changes if they do happen could alter any angle of attack.

I think the main issue across the outputs isn't so much the Atlantic energy but the block being centred more over Russia then further west over Scandi.

The GFS 06hrs run does look slightly better in the earlier timeframe but the ensembles look a bit worrying in terms of shortwave development which could blow up with some very strong winds. I'm not a fan of storms so would hope that these are over developing low pressure.

Looking towards the early part of next week still a chance for some snow especially towards the ne of the UK and although the outputs have edged the pattern further east still time for some changes.

Hopefully this gets resolved this evening and we can either put to bed yet another model drama or there might be some more mileage in this.

[shaky]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A bit like after the Lord Mayors show this morning with the UKMO going from the better solution last night to not so good today.

The infamous NAVGEM shows shocking consistency I would have thought it would have bailed out by now but its output would bring in that colder air to the east past T144hrs, the ridge it develops between the UK low and troughing over western Greenland is what you'd want to see. Indeed yesterday it was the only clear support for the UKMO solution.

Its obvious that the other outputs are underwhelming as I'm talking about the NAVGEM!

Looking at the ECM ensembles surprising to still see that colder cluster survive, given the outputs are going the wrong way I thought those ensembles would start jumping ship in the earlier timeframe. There looks like a clear signal from those to bring the Atlantic further east towards day ten but I think earlier changes if they do happen could alter any angle of attack.

I think the main issue across the outputs isn't so much the Atlantic energy but the block being centred more over Russia then further west over Scandi.

The GFS 06hrs run does look slightly better in the earlier timeframe but the ensembles look a bit worrying in terms of shortwave development which could blow up with some very strong winds. I'm not a fan of storms so would hope that these are over developing low pressure.

Looking towards the early part of next week still a chance for some snow especially towards the ne of the UK and although the outputs have edged the pattern further east still time for some changes.

Hopefully this gets resolved this evening and we can either put to bed yet another model drama or there might be some more mileage in this.

I have a sneaky feeling nick that this evenings run will back that colder air further west!!!i think the models are still unsure of how to react with that huge block across scandi!!!fingers crossed for some upgrades!!06z gfs was an improvement earlier on!!!

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

I have a sneaky feeling nick that this evenings run will back that colder air further west!!!i think the models are still unsure of how to react with that huge block across scandi!!!fingers crossed for some upgrades!!06z gfs was an improvement earlier on!!!

Looking at the GFS/JMA/NAVGEM 06hrs run in terms of upstream profile and orientation of the high to the ne is more favourable. The JMA is certainly not without interest at T84hrs. And seeing as I'm living in France I'd better mention the Arpege which upstream is now more amplified pulling the low heights a little further west.

I suppose we have to weigh up the less reliability versus the newer data of those less known models but perhaps a signal of some changes this evening.

[NorthernRab]

I may be missing something but has the easterly under discussion from around the 5th of January not always been modeled to be a largely Scottish event? There's still a possibility of some pretty cold conditions for much of the country to my eyes, the GFS 06 hz run keeping this trend going.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, NorthernRab said:

I may be missing something but has the easterly under discussion from around the 5th of January not always been modeled to be a largely Scottish event? There's still a possibility of some pretty cold conditions for much of the country to my eyes, the GFS 06 hz run keeping this trend going.

I think theres been somewhat of an unrealistic view of this easterly. I can't see a convective easterly UK wide like the ones people often think of in here. The block is too far away and Atlantic energy was always likely to be too far east and disrupting over the UK.

I've always been more in the frontal snow type scenario which doesn't need the deep cold pool but just enough cold to the east and lower dewpoints to develop snow on the north/ne flank of disrupting low pressure.

The only model that could possibly develop a more convective type easterly is the NAVGEM because its ridge of high pressure ahead of the upstream troughing would help push the UK low further se and advect some colder air from the east.

You can see there the separation of low heights from the UK low and the upstream troughing, if the NAVGEM 06hrs went to T168hrs the UK low would sink ese, the cold further to the ene would be advected towards the UK. Its still a longshot and I don't normally highlight the NAVGEM but just as an example of what you'd want to see.

And of course its output is the best chart of the whole winter at T144hrs in terms of overall pattern and possible evolution.

[Methuselah]

Just now, nick sussex said:

I think theres been somewhat of an unrealistic view of this easterly. I can't see a convective easterly UK wide like the ones people often think of in here. The block is too far away and Atlantic energy was always likely to be too far east and disrupting over the UK.

I've always been more in the frontal snow type scenario which doesn't need the deep cold pool but just enough cold to the east and lower dewpoints to develop snow on the north/ne flank of disrupting low pressure.

The only model that could possibly develop a more convective type easterly is the NAVGEM because its ridge of high pressure ahead of the upstream troughing would help push the UK low further se and advect some colder air from the east.

You can see there the separation of low heights from the UK low and the upstream troughing, if the NAVGEM 06hrs went to T168hrs the UK low would sink ese, the cold further to the ene would be advected towards the UK. Its still a longshot and I don't normally highlight the NAVGEM but just as an example of what you'd want to see.

And of course its output is the best chart of the whole winter at T144hrs in terms of overall pattern and possible evolution.

Really, Nick?

[Sperrin]

Looks like we could see some winter weather tomorrow evening in N Ireland according to the GFS:

 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Really, Nick?

Yes really! lol

I think the problem is the easterly got mentioned it snowballed into something that was never shown on any operational run. I've been consistent with my thoughts re the faux easterly. Trough disruption frontal snow possibilities yes, convective easterly unlikely. Unless of course the NAVGEM is correct which I think is a very big longshot. At this point its best to manage expectations, within the reasonable changes we could see some westwards corrections in the outputs. If the NAVGEM is unbelievably on the right track then I'd better shoot off my thankyou letter to Santa!

[Frosty.]

Well the MO update, if anything has strengthened the colder signal for the north / northeast of the UK during early to mid January.  There have been lots of negative comments on here today BUT it still appears there will be the potential for much colder weather with a chance of snow through the next few weeks, at least further north by north east...

Edited December 30, 2015 by Frosty.

[Liam J]

Are things really that bad @nick sussex you're ramping up the NAVGEM?! It does look good mind!! lol