Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[MR EXTREMES]

1 minute ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

its toppling that colder air closer and closer to the north east t120 hrs not bad

ukmo looks like its going with this mornings run

[MR EXTREMES]

the shortwave that flew out of southeast Europe into scandi got to be an interesting feature complicated model out put from the gfs

also slightly higher pressure Greenland or perhaps more of a surface high that true heights.

Edited December 30, 2015 by emotional rollercoaster

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

the shortwave that flew out of southeast Europe into scandi got to be an interesting feature complicated model out put from the gfs

also slightly higher pressure Greenland or perhaps more of a surface high that true heights.

That shortwave is doing us no favours! If it wasn't there the pressure would be higher to our north!

[Mucka]

The output is suggesting we have few more days of rain and wind and floods to get through but from around day 5+ things will temporarily quieten and dry up with the UK under a col as low stall and fills. Colder and drier, at least for a short time with risk of frost. After that looks like the Atlantic will continue to try and get back in but hard to know how far South the pattern will be or how much any low pressure will disrupt against the cold to our East at this stage. Thereafter FI but general signal for something drier heading toward mid month.

Edited December 30, 2015 by Mucka

[Tim Bland]

At least the PV is shredded and there's plenty of cold to tap into when the cards fall in our favour. Not often you see a 940mb low that far south in the Atlantic! Pleanty of snow for high ground and Scotish ski resorts. 

 

[Eskimo]

The good thing is that the jet stream is shown to go much further south, leaving us on the colder side. 

[kumquat]

Nasty. Go away.

[Weathizard]

The classic UK wedge haha!

[nick sussex]

The UKMO quite a bit different upstream at T120hrs compared to the GFS. More amplified over the ne USA, the phasing of the shortwave with the PV could develop even more favourably as at T120hrs its trying to develop a ridge in the Atlantic.  Theres a chance we could see a cleaner separation of the shortwave energy over the UK.

[Geordiesnow]

I think that is a case of the GFS overblowing up low pressure systems again although it was the first model to forecast what is now storm Frank albeit not in the position it ended up in the end. 

I think one positive I do find in the output todays is that today runs has suggested more than runs in the past few days of lowering heights in Western Europe and whilst it does not seem to help to bring colder air towards our shores, you would of thought its one step in the right decision. 

Also the UKMO has Saturday's low slightly further south and a bit more shallower, hopefully its right on that one as it could mean the rainfall will be further southwards aswell. 

[Snowman.]

GFS is the most horrific run I have seen. Cold chances, dry chances all thrown out the window. I really hope the GFS is wrong because this setup can cause some nasty features that can affect all parts of the UK.

[MR EXTREMES]

amazing to see scandi basking in -14 uppers just across the north sea I agree very turbulent and messy milder at times in the south but later azores heights pushing in from the southwest which would certainly back the meto ideas of a nw flow also would not rule out  a notherly at some point.

the easterly which the more experienced forecasters said would not happen looks a dam good call,

that's why the pros are good at what they do.

but its mighty cold to our northwest north and north east so all them directions would produce wintry weather at times especially in the north west and to start with the north east.

so ive put my sledge back and happy to wait longer but until then lets spare a thought for those who have suffered.

Edited December 30, 2015 by emotional rollercoaster

[Methuselah]

During the past two months, the GFS has been described at 'too progressive', both in terms of its willingness (it's a numerical model, not a person!) to build HP areas over Scandinavia and to bring in the Atlantic too soon...Hasn't the real weather been the final arbiter on those claims?

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

During the past two months, the GFS has been described at 'too progressive', both in terms of its willingness (it's a numerical model, not a person!) to build HP areas over Scandinavia and to bring in the Atlantic too soon...Hasn't the real weather been the final arbiter on those claims?

Indeed.

[snowray]

Yes, you just couldn't make it up could you, run after run the UK remains in a small wedge of Mild air surrounded by blues/mauve to the East, North and West.

[Mucka]

GFS is another horror show, no getting away from it. Looks like it is going to throw us a manky bone by way Northerly in deepest FI - mocking us.

[TSNWK]

21 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO quite a bit different upstream at T120hrs compared to the GFS. More amplified over the ne USA, the phasing of the shortwave with the PV could develop even more favourably as at T120hrs its trying to develop a ridge in the Atlantic.  Theres a chance we could see a cleaner separation of the shortwave energy over the UK.

Hello nick.. What happened at 144 on the UKMO looks shocking to me with the Azores high ridging in and the next low pressure system waiting in the wings about to ride over the top of said Azores high ploughing through the UK

where did it all go wrong!

[phil nw.]

1 hour ago, Tim Brawn said:

Another Yo Yo day of predictions by the looks . Love reading all the views but all we want to know is when it will be cold enough for a drop of the whitestuff. I still find it confusing that so called weather models can be so different at the same timescales makes little sense . can somebody explain in less than 100 words , Ta

 

58 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

1 word

NO

Hi Tim and welcome to the forum.

Just to add a bit to John's response.

wrt snow at the moment- away from the Scottish highlands and maybe the n.isles there's no sign of snow for the rest of us at present.Plenty of unwanted rain though unfortunately.

To help you and any other newbies get an idea of the charts and what they mean we have a forum section dedicated to learning here

https://forum.netweather.tv/forum/24-learning-about-weather-and-meteorology/

there are sub-threads with guides to different aspects of weather charts etc. in there so have a look when you have time.

I hope that helps you.

[Mucka]

JMA goes out to 84 early for those who are new to this and then resumes the run after 6PM. It at least hints at something slightly better with the pattern a little further West. A lot less progressive than GFS anyway given the short time-frame involved.

[mulzy]

Truly dreadful NWP output so far tonight.  From mild and wet to average and wet.  Yuck!

One piece of good news.  I might have my first frost of the winter early on New Year's Day.

 

Edited December 30, 2015 by mulzy

[snowspotter]

 

I'm sorry but the GFS must have lost the plot to develop a low like this in 15 hours. Its almost like it has just thought it up to try and smash the heights to our east . It cannot be plausible surely

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, Tim Brawn said:

Another Yo Yo day of predictions by the looks . Love reading all the views but all we want to know is when it will be cold enough for a drop of the whitestuff. I still find it confusing that so called weather models can be so different at the same timescales makes little sense . can somebody explain in less than 100 words , Ta

sorry about my brief response, but a belated welcome and as Phil has posted please have a look at the ideas in there. And DO ask questions, don't worry  what others may think, we all learn in here from one another.

[Liam J]

4 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

 

I'm sorry but the GFS must have lost the plot to develop a low like this in 15 hours. Its almost like it has just thought it up to try and smash the heights to our east . It cannot be plausible surely

Very plausible, very steep thermal gradient being modelled over the Atlantic which aids explosive cyclogenesis. 

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles out to 120/144 suggest there is more mileage in this yet. Certainly cold not favoured but still a decent chance of snow the further N and E you are. Will update this post shortly.

 

Edit. update with the better ensemble members. Certainly the minority but enough to maintain a glimmer of hope.

 

Edited December 30, 2015 by Mucka

[shaky]

14 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles out to 120/144 suggest there is more mileage in this yet. Certainly cold not favoured but still a decent chance of snow the further N and E you are. Will update this post shortly.

 

Edit. update with the better ensemble members. Certainly the minority but enough to maintain a glimmer of hope.

 

I did say to nick earlier mucka that this aint done yet!!dont be surprised to see further westward corrections!!