South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

[Blessed Weather]

^ Enjoyed the warming pics of 'real' fires! Freezing cold outside, warm and snug inside - you can't beat it!

I'm feeling robbed this morning with all the posts about how cold it's been overnight. It started off on a promising note last evening, but overnight it clouded over and at 08.00 this morning it's +1.3C and the sky is leaden grey. Checking the cloud cover satellite you can see the finger of cloud that's responsible.

So with this cold spell coming to an end we cross our fingers for developments in February that experts like Dr. Cohen are very positive about:-
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

But for now it's back to looking for early signs and trends in the far reaches of GFS fantasy island! Oh well, it keeps us off the streets!

Cloud cover 09.15

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LOL! Check this out from one model..

 

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Oh God! Here we go... The 06z rolling out and it is quite something on some models even around the 8-9 day mark... 

 

Get set.. The roller coaster is filling up !

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Fourm will be absoultey packed tonight! 

[Kent Blizzard]

25 minutes ago, Surrey said:

 

Fourm will be absoultey packed tonight! 

Like we said yesterday when it was looking like Spring was arriving earlier, the flipping and the flopping will continue for a few days

It's amazing how some of them in the MO never ever learn before they open their mouths. When the majority of us couldn't even forecast Monday's snow potential correctly 48 & 24hrs out, how some of them can write off the whole of the remaining winter ( just under half ) I'll never know.

Edited January 20, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[lawrenk]

58 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Oh God! Here we go... The 06z rolling out and it is quite something on some models even around the 8-9 day mark... 

 

Get set.. The roller coaster is filling up !

Now that's what I want to see!

Apologies for the "IMBYardidness", if such a word exists!

[Ben Lewis]

The MOD thread is absolutely hilarious.

Suddenly the 6Z shows an easterly and its “going into freezer next week” “wow lots of snow for the east”

From the same members only 2 hours ago were declaring almost “winter over” & “depression” posts….Off the back of the 0z charts.

Proving my theory from yesterday, that folk actually use that thread for their obsession of roller coaster posts – Fighting who can draw most attention. I Think many have actually lost the concept of what the thread is for…

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52 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

The MOD thread is absolutely hilarious.

Suddenly the 6Z shows an easterly and its “going into freezer next week” “wow lots of snow for the east”

From the same members only 2 hours ago were declaring almost “winter over” & “depression” posts….Off the back of the 0z charts.

Proving my theory from yesterday, that folk actually use that thread for their obsession of roller coaster posts – Fighting who can draw most attention. I Think many have actually lost the concept of what the thread is for…

ABSOULETY! Very sensible post and think we discussed it a few days back. The only way you can follow these charts and make a decision on what you are seeing, is if a TREND is showing!

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

 

Fourm will be absoultey packed tonight! 

Can't view the run at the MIN,how did it get to that, does the high over us try to hold the Atlantic back like the BBC forecast post a few nights back?

[Jimmyh]

I actually feel sorry for the moderators back biting and sniping. sometimes about T364 posts its hilarious.

 

I tend in the winter to have time out when it gets exciting and come in here for the fires and warmth and lovely chats

[Blessed Weather]

2 hours ago, Surrey said:

LOL! Check this out from one model..

 

Hang on....!! so as well as the 'parallel' showing it, the 'standard' GFS is showing it too - a fabulous beast-from-the-east!! Is the GFS on to something or just on the booze??!!

29th Jan

[alexisj9]

It's a warm one today here already  5.1 may still go up a bit before coming down if the cloud clears.

[frozencanals]

 

We managed -1.3 here in Southend last night, grey skies this morning and up to 6 degrees now.

Cheers

 

FC

[Jimmyh]

just look at this absolute beast on here -15 pushing in southeast england

 

[Jimmyh]

first time I have backed up myself with a chart hooorah

[Kent Blizzard]

Let's not forget on Monday that little hint from the BBC weather forecaster ( Easterly ).

So yesterday we took one step back, today I think we actually go two steps forward.

[Snoopie42]

Encouraging if this trend gathers any pace...I must admit I was surprised when the BBC mentioned the "E" word so early as they are usually over cautious in divulging such snippets of information. That being said the Met Office do get to peruse a whole set of model runs etc. that we do not get to see, so maybe there is something in it....."he says hoping"! Lets see whether the 12z's continue the trend! Have a good afternoon all!

P.S. What a beautiful day! Don't really want to be shut in the office ...maybe time for a cheeky site visit!

Edited January 20, 2016 by Snoopie42

[PLANET THANET]

32 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Let's not forget on Monday that little hint from the BBC weather forecaster ( Easterly ).

So yesterday we took one step back, today I think we actually go two steps forward.

unfortunately fergie did say that it was not a hint at easterlys incoming, but trying to show that the mild air was being held back 

[PLANET THANET]

50 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

Indeed - and likewise beyond. Through the first half of February, GloSea continues to stick to it's recent tune of an initially SW'ly flow then veering more W/NW'ly during first half of the month. The net result is a signal for colder than average conditions to develop as the month progresses. The UKMO Seasonal Consensus meeting has been taking place today in Exeter, so we hope to hear more regarding their judgement for next month later this evening.

I ventured over to the dark side (mod thread) and look what I found posted from fergie a few minutes ago, I then came out of it still mentally sane !!!

Edited January 20, 2016 by PLANET THANET

[alexisj9]

38 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

I ventured over to the dark side (mod thread) and look what I found posted from fergie a few minutes ago, I then came out of it still mentally sane !!!

Only problem is I don't like northwesterlys they do nothing for here lol, mind you something good could progress on from there.

[PLANET THANET]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Only problem is I don't like northwesterlys they do nothing for here lol, mind you something good could progress on from there.

the way I look at it ,it is a start and back to cold seasonal weather (with or without snow)

[Daniel*]

'twas a hard frost. More please! 

Edited January 20, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*

[Ben Lewis]

Tune in to the MOD Thread now for your daily entertainment of 'roller coaster'

Could it be ''winter over'' or ''Winters back'' posts....

But be warned... Another completely different episode will follow tomorrow.....

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4 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Tune in to the MOD Thread now for your daily entertainment of 'roller coaster'

Could it be ''winter over'' or ''Winters back'' posts....

But be warned... Another completely different episode will follow tomorrow.....

Indeed tonights 18z and 00z will be diffrent todays 12z which was a glorious run 

[stainesbloke]

Another gorgeous winters day here, actually felt warm in the sun despite frost remaining in all the shady spots. Reached 5C but temperature is dropping now. Could happily keep this weather til March!