Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[i luv snow]

Just now, Shuga ice said:

The output observed today show a 3 day spell of mainly dry and bright weather, on the cold side with night frosts.

 Temperatures gradually rising to above average thereafter.

Seriously? I really don't think that is what is being shown by most models..

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, Shuga ice said:

The output observed today show a 3 day spell of mainly dry and bright weather, on the cold side with night frosts.

 Temperatures gradually rising to above average thereafter.

IS that a joke.......

for GFS view, go take a look http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=1&heure=6&jour=6&mois=1&annee=2016&archive=1&carte=1

The image you cherry picked from the GFS output is the beginning of its sustained cold outbreak . I'm commenting on what was modelled, not what will happen.

Edited January 6, 2016 by karlos1983

[Neilsouth]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated AO suite from the 00z 

EPIC a la 2009 & 2010

s

Wow Steve, I've not seen that drop so low for years! Actually I don't think we had any snow here last winter either

[SMU]

Hi neil

for lowland UK - any easterly component will be a bonus !!!

s

[Liam J]

2 minutes ago, Shuga ice said:

The output observed today show a 3 day spell of mainly dry and bright weather, on the cold side with night frosts.

 Temperatures gradually rising to above average thereafter.

You have taken a chart from the 6z GFS with that statement? Switch to the 850 temp view from around the time frame of the chart you posted and run through the charts... Unless I can't count I make it around 5 to 6 days of cold weather, T360 yes milder air is making inroads... 

[Stormeh]

5 minutes ago, Shuga ice said:

The output observed today show a 3 day spell of mainly dry and bright weather, on the cold side with night frosts.

 Temperatures gradually rising to above average thereafter.

Stop trying to get me to throw my toys out the pram, it ain't working because the models are showing great potential!

You are just trying to be a party pooper

[Shuga ice]

1 minute ago, i luv snow said:

Seriously? I really don't think that is what is being shown by most models..

Maybe to the untrained eye, but I have had years of following the models and you can't beat having the experience of witnessing the eventual outcome, northerlies bring mainly fine weather to the majority of the U.K. In winter.  If there is a more continental flow, things will improve for cold and snow lovers so that's something to look for in future outputs.

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Shuga ice said:

Maybe to the untrained eye, but I have had years of following the models and you can't beat having the experience of witnessing the eventual outcome, northerlies bring mainly fine weather to the majority of the U.K. In winter.  If there is a more continental flow, things will improve for cold and snow lovers so that's something to look for in future outputs.

No disrespect but the previous post you made contradicts that statement.

[Dr. Astro]

5 minutes ago, Shuga ice said:

Maybe to the untrained eye, but I have had years of following the models and you can't beat having the experience of witnessing the eventual outcome, northerlies bring mainly fine weather to the majority of the U.K. In winter.  If there is a more continental flow, things will improve for cold and snow lovers so that's something to look for in future outputs.

Well, there we have it all.

Ignore the models...

We just require a trained eye as ours seem to be lacking in that department ! 

 

Edited January 6, 2016 by Dr. Astro

[Methuselah]

Can you lot pleeeeaaaase stop bickering and partake of some genuine model discussion...'trained eyes' or not?

[phil nw.]

I have just moved a whole raft of posts over to the banter thread.

Please everyone to make this thread easy to read and relevant keep banter and ramping without model discussion to either the banter thread or the new thread now open for the upcoming cold spell.Links below.

 

 

have a think before pressing the button to post.

Please use them if appropiate and give the team a break at this busy time.

Ta ever so

Edited January 6, 2016 by phil nw.

[Cloud 10]

23 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated AO suite from the 00z 

EPIC a la 2009 & 2010

s

 

Remember when the scale on that graph used to only go to -4,then it got extended to -6 a few years ago.

 

Looks like its ready for another update.

[ALL ABOARD]

Nice to see the pressure rising over Greenland already by 24 hours on 12z its already up to 1040 mb 

on the 6z it takes 120 hours to achieve this.. 

small upgrades?

 

 

[Troubleatmill]

 

42 minutes ago, Shuga ice said:

The output observed today show a 3 day spell of mainly dry and bright weather, on the cold side with night frosts.

 Temperatures gradually rising to above average thereafter.

Not sure where you are getting the "above average" thereafter from? the mean line is well below average right through? fair enough this may not happen, but if we are talking about what the models are showing today, you are incorrect i'm afraid.

I do agree what you say about continental feel as apposed to a Northerly for most, but even this depends on your location and how stable or unstable the airflow is, the isobars on the chart you show has a very unstable airflow, which can send bands of snow right down the spine of the country not just to the north of Scotland and eastern and western north facing coasts 

 

Edited January 6, 2016 by Nicholas B

[Stormyking]

Definetly an Interestin trend showing from a whole variety of models, GFS particularly a big upgrade  this Morning wanting to build heights towards Greenland, and also that great big Arctic High. In the the meantime though we still have a week of Unsettled Weather with quite a lot of Wind and rain around, some very showery days around too especially around coastal areas which could be on the thundery side me think in some areas. 

 

However Temperatures a lot cooler, with some overnight frosts too in places

 

And some wintriness sleet/snow over high ground Scotland

 All eyes now on the 12z thats just began to role out! 

[Methuselah]

Eyes down, hands on rattles - the GFS is unfolding...

[pandit-scholar]

It looks like we have to endure a few more days of rain, as the PV leaves Greenland and heads this way, not what many people want especially in the North.

 

However on the positive side, the PV is leaving Greenland so this may allow heights to build into it in the later frames. We shall see. Clearly the PV is suffering at the moment.

Edited January 6, 2016 by pandit-scholar

[bradymk]

Cold edging southwards slightly quicker this run already. Higher heights slightly more northwards to our NW compared to 6z too. Little things in a bigger picture i know but better to see than the opposite.

[Cloud 10]

If anything the 12z is a bit better than the stella 06z so far with slightly better arctic and atlantic ridging.

 

[bobbydog]

57 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated AO suite from the 00z 

EPIC a la 2009 & 2010

s

NAO to go with that-

 

[VillagePlank]

Here's the 6z cluster analysis. Whilst far to far away, here it is anyway,

Cluster One (25% agreement)

 

Cluster Two (40% agreement)

 

Cluster Three (20% agreement)

 

Cluster Four (15% agreement)

 

So, at this very early stage 65% (Cluster One + Cluster Two) of model runs are going for a rather large block in the Northern Atlantic bringing in associated meriodinal weather rather than the recent zonal stuff.

Edited January 6, 2016 by VillagePlank

[Stormyking]

Heights definatly seem to be shooting to Greenland quicker than on the 6z

12'z

 

6z

Though the Arctic not quite as strong so far, its still there which is good to see

[BM4PM]

32 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

Remember when the scale on that graph used to only go to -4,then it got extended to -6 a few years ago.

 

Looks like its ready for another update.

I`ve been following the models\weatherchat since 2011 and have never seen it go of the chart like that.

If you dont mind asking, what sort of levels did the nao tank too in 2010?Last time i looked it was only just negitive.

[Yarmy]

2 minutes ago, BM4PM said:

I`ve been following the models\weatherchat since 2011 and have never seen it go of the chart like that.

If you dont mind asking, what sort of levels did the nao tank too in 2010?Last time i looked it was only just negitive.

[pandit-scholar]

Looks like much better heights might be heading into Greenland.

Edited January 6, 2016 by pandit-scholar