Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Eskimo]

ECM looking a lot better as well, sheesh! 

[ptow]

2 minutes ago, Mr Sleet said:

Although a big improvement in the models for cold, this set up gives us the wishbone effect with snow showers really limited to far northern and coastal areas. 

For those away from the coasts and in the southern half of the Uk,we'll have to hope for some disturbances running down the country to deliver anything. 

Aah I remember the same being said around early Jan 2010. 3 days later 36cm of laying snow in Tilehurst 

[Mark Neal.]

120hrs. Cold air sweeping down. -7c upper temps heading South, -8c into Scotland.

[Southender]

Luvvly jubbly. Look at the WAA go.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Shrimper

[tight isobar]

And its game on @120 ecm.im likely the alignment in both Atlantic and eastern seaboard us. Than even the gfs 12z!!!!!

[Captain Shortwave]

A lot better from the ECM

A much better ridge tonight.

 

850s of -7C covering most of the UK. -9C over the Welsh borders.

Add to that a secondary low is ready to sweep south east through the UK.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Mark Neal.]

144hrs. -9c across swathe of UK, -7c widely. (upper air temps)

 

[radiohead]

ECM looking good at T144. More amplification than on previous runs. 

 

[SMU]

Little to Add other that the ECM in tandem with the UKMO 500mb profile brings in a large pool of -8c uppers at 144 across england with a patch of -9 over wales

thickness around 520 & low heights = snow

watch to the NW at 168 for a band of snow moving SE

S

 

[snowice]

Wow 2010 repeat 

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Little to Add other that the ECM in tandem with the UKMO 500mb profile brings in a large pool of -8c uppers at 144 across england with a patch of -9 over wales

thickness around 520 & low heights = snow

watch to the NW at 168 for a band of snow moving SE

S

 

HI Steve can you do your snow line map if you can. Save a lot of will it snow questions!

[Geordiesnow]

It does look more and more likely the GFS is wrong in the short term regarding its positioning and timing of the trigger low pressure system which probably makes the rest of it output wrong to an extent however unlike the failed promise of the easterly, we do have broad agreement on the outlook turning colder with the risk of snowfall appearing as early as this Sunday onwards for some areas. 

Kind of irrelevant what the rest of the run shows now, the important bit is the ECM continuing to backtrack from its flatter set up. 

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, snowice said:

HI Steve can you do your snow line map if you can. Save a lot of will it snow questions!

Jeez - too early to be thinking about snow.  This is the model discussion thread not the will it snow in my back yard thread.

Go to regional threads when the time is right!

Edited January 6, 2016 by mulzy

[karlos1983]

Just now, Geordiesnow said:

It does look more and more likely the GFS is wrong in the short term regarding its positioning and timing of the trigger low pressure system which probably makes the rest of it output wrong to an extent however unlike the failed promise of the easterly, we do have broad agreement on the outlook turning colder with the risk of snowfall appearing as early as this Sunday onwards for some areas. 

Kind of irrelevant what the rest of the run shows now, the important bit is the ECM continuing to backtrack from its flatter set up. 

Couldn't agree more, up to 144 agreement of the theme was the most important part and it would seem we have that for now. Very relieved 

[Mucka]

ECM 168 is lining up for a reload of the ridge I reckon.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

shortwave develops in the flow, FI but could be snowy, GFS develops one, but appears to come off the Azores low

[karlos1983]

Just now, Mucka said:

ECM 168 is lining up for a reload of the ridge I reckon.

It looks like it has nowhere to go from a coldies perspective 

[MR EXTREMES]

17 minutes ago, chris55 said:

 

Yes Steve looks off the scale! 

Also the last time I remember a black hole anomaly like this was in the lead up to DEC 2010!!

 

 

epic neg ao and indeed very 09/10 nw I'm getting a little excited but us southerners might have to wait but it will get here eventually I hope.

[terrier]

Great ecm in the reliable timeframe brings in the cold quicker and follows the ukmo. Think the gfs looks out of kilter at the moment. Main thing is it looks a lot drier for the flooded areas. 

[snowice]

11 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Jeez - too early to be thinking about snow.  This is the model discussion thread not the will it snow in my back yard thread.

Go to regional threads when the time is right!

Well the runs especially ECM are in range and the models do show the weather type and pattern so after all the mild mush please forgive me 

Edited January 6, 2016 by snowice

[Cheshire Freeze]

Short one from me- in work- 192 is an epic boom. Major block developing there

 

[January Snowstorm]

Ecm ready for a reload at 192 hrs. 

We have agreement on an epic cold spell

[bluearmy]

ecm op getting messy in its later stages as it seems to be pulling itself in too many directions. note this is the first ecm op not to take the scandi vortex chunk to the Canadian side. by day 10, the Canadian vortex should be looking less scary than recent fi ecm ops have ended.

as ever, not worth over analysis post day 6 but there does seem to be an operational appetite to slowly raise heights to our north.

[Cloud 10]

1 hour ago, Greenland1080 said:

Cloud10 find a better gefs member than the T240 op

 

 

 

I hope you are ready for this one

 

GEFS ensemble number 4 at 240 hrs...........

 

 

[radiohead]