Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[SMU]

You can come out now - ECM is safe !!

also - I dont want to tempt fete - but ECM 192 has the same x2 lows seperation & the same vertical advection ( almost ) as November 2010

Remember the greenland High post - the best of them come from Highs ridging & retrograding together..

one to watch at 216 & 244 - it could be the ECM cobra run....

I feel a modeltracker coming on lol

s

[Geordiesnow]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Ecm ready for a reload at 192 hrs. 

We have agreement on an epic cold spell

Does not mean an epic cold spell will happen though and people will have to bear that in mind. The important things is that the models are in agreement on it turning colder and now the models are in agreement on at least trying to send some WAA into Greenland, its too early to say how long it will last because the details will change and that will affect the outputs but there is a chance we may be in for a period of colder air longer than perhaps first thought. 

[Polar Maritime]

Can we keep to sensible discussion during these busy times please with a bit more meat to the bones, For 'Boom' 'Epic' 'Best run ever' posts and the like there is a ramping thread open. Ta

Edited January 6, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[chionomaniac]

ECM at T+192 is a phenomenally good chart not just in itself but for what it may bring after

[shaky]

These charts are absolutely unreal!!ukmo was onto something yesterday by bringing in the cold earlier and boy was it onto something!!its dragged all the other models with it!!could be snowmageddon next week!!

[VillagePlank]

GFS ENS 12z 500hPa Cluster Analysis,

Cluster-1 60% agreement

Cluster-2 15% agreement

Cluster-3 15% agreement

Cluster-4 10% agreement

That's an 85% agreement (C1,C2, and C4) that the whole of the UK will be bathed in <= 528dm air with a 45% chance that at least some of the country will be in <=520dm air!

Simply ... wow!

Edited January 6, 2016 by VillagePlank

[Weather-history]

30 minutes ago, chris55 said:

 

Yes Steve looks off the scale! 

Also the last time I remember a black hole anomaly like this was in the lead up to DEC 2010!!

 

 

That chart reminds me of the 2nd cold outbreak of December 2010. I think that a had a huge anomaly roughly in the same region,

[nick sussex]

OMG the ECM T216hrs!  Stunning change around from the ECM with a great ridge combo of Atlantic high and Arctic high.

[Mucka]

Stunning ECM 216 with the reload.

JMA goes a different route and brings the low from the SW through.

It will be interesting to watch how the models handle this feature in the later output because has the potential to have a fairly impact upon our weather one way or another.

[MR EXTREMES]

dunno very very low solar activity infact far side and earth side so maybe theres more effect the sun has than we know about could be the minima is apon us.

ecm is beautiful run screaming reload for sure.

[Frosty.]

I love Game of thrones and I love what the Ecm 12z is showing..winter is coming!!!

What yesterday looked like a day or two cold snap now looks longer and deeper..I hope the wintry upgrades continue and all the coldies finally get the rich rewards we deserve after many weeks of mild / very mild mush....BOOM

[radiohead]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

It doesn't get any better than this!

 

Actually...

 

[Mucka]

oohj err

Doesn't get much better.

[Harsh Climate]

 

PERFECTON!

[SMU]

BOOM

CORBRA LOCKDOWN

ADD 7 days to cold post that -

Mild air do not pass go do not collect £200

s

[Dancerwithwings]

Well well, winter has landed

[Polar Maritime]

Excellent charts tonight and it's good to see the ECMWF prolong the cold after this mornings run. Winter certainly is coming Frosty and it's been a long wait. It's very rare indeed to see charts like these.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[nick sussex]

The ECM T240hrs one of the greatest cold potential charts ever seen in here. Amazing output from the ECM this evening, whats even better it has a higher margin for error than both the UKMO and GFS with regards that cut off low near the Azores.

[K9]

Forgive my upcoming 'lack of knowledge' question...i'm a regular reader of all the posts on this great forum..and for the past few days/weeks/months..all i've read is how this wet,windy and mild rut was set to continue forever....what has suddenly turned the charts 'on their head' so to speak???!!...i have limited knowledge but i enjoy viewing the model outputs!!....ps - i'm a secret coldie...hoping we all get some decent cold but i'm not holding my breath!!...regards to all !

[Geordiesnow]

Well the ECM in the end finally shows why its often known as over amplifying things when you see those type of charts, beautiful too look at but a long way from happening and the next run will show variation from those. 

I'm still not going to discount the possibilities of shortwaves spoiling things because the actual WAA into Greenland is still too far off to be confident of it happening and we been here many times before where the models have been showing attempted ridges into Greenland only for them to fail by those dreaded shortwaves! 

That said, tonight's ECM is a bit of a relief that it has backtracked in the short to medium term, another flatish run may have people getting a bit edgy again and starting to think whether its onto something. 

Heres hoping the GFS will fall in line in the shorter term of sending that trigger low eastwards at 96 hours, i want the colder air in ASAP. 

[cornish snow]

We're not going to call this "That ECM 2" are we?

remember what happened last time.

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

oohj err

Doesn't get much better.

It's the speed at which this is developing which is taking all by surprise including the met.But these once in a life time events are becoming more frequent.i.e 2010,march 2013 201....

[A.J]

Some rather tasty weather charts courtesy of the GFS & especially the 12z ECMWF......So for all new members wanting seasonal weather, I'll say what we always advise, and sage words indeed...........Don't panic, keep following the model outputs, get the heat in place, and the spanish plume/storms will follow....oops, wrong season 

[bluearmy]

second day running that the parallel ecm has made running over the op 00z 

[Harsh Climate]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

BOOM

CORBRA LOCKDOWN

ADD 7 days to cold post that -

Mild air do not pass go do not collect £200

s

 

What's really special about these charts though they are showing mid january rather than late februrary/march like when we ususally get them! .

 

Whereas most people look for the magical -10 line for deep cold/frequent heavy snow showers off the north sea, it is amazing just how cold it will get with uppers of just -5 to -8 due to the time of the year...

Edited January 6, 2016 by Harsh Climate