North West England Weather discussion 16/01/16 Onwards

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Just seen the national weather and Holy cow the graphics almost

Had me wetting myself snow shoeers from midnight followed by

More prolonged snow from 0500 until 0900,and then more snow

Showers tomorrow,oh go on then more snow on friday even

Stated it could be disruptive snowfall

Welcome to winter 2016

C.S

whats your altitude cs? It might not actually be a higher ground event but obviously any will help

Manc airport TAF might be interesting for late tonight

[cheshire snow]

55 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

whats your altitude cs? It might not actually be a higher ground event but obviously any will help

Manc airport TAF might be interesting for late tonight

You cannot getmuch lower than here about 70m thats why i get

A bit giddy when the warning and the national weather mention

The words even on low ground

C.S

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

You cannot getmuch lower than here about 70m thats why i get

A bit giddy when the warning and the national weather mention

The words even on low ground

C.S

70m is 70m every little help s!!

I have a feeling this thread will liven up a bit later on..

[cheshire snow]

Si indeed LOL

My agenda today.

Of now for a kip

Of to work later home at 2am

Blind open watching that lampost

C u later

C.S

[frosty ground]

GFS 06Z Run looks interesting as well.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Si indeed LOL

My agenda today.

Of now for a kip

Of to work later home at 2am

Blind open watching that lampost

C u later

C.S

Well snap but im working until 7am   bbc raw has the ppn turning wintry later in the night so might be a late for one for quite a few

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GFS 06Z Run looks interesting as well.

Sure does FG, the last 2 or 3 GFS ops have been little upgrades- tonight has suddenly become very interesting , i think your a bit higher than me so you should do very well, certainly could be some heavy snow later and thur night is also potentially snowy. 

Still feel a bit narked its not dec or jan but hey ho 

[frosty ground]

With 5-10cm expected above 200m i wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade in the warning to an Amber. That amount of snow is Disruptive even if it's hillier areas.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

With 5-10cm expected above 200m i wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade in the warning to an Amber. That amount of snow is Disruptive even if it's hillier areas.

Agree, plenty of lamp post watching until the very late hours tonight!!

[swainclubber]

finally, shame its so far into the season but beggars cant be choosers. are we looking at a rapid thaw here or likely to last a day or so?

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, swainclubber said:

finally, shame its so far into the season but beggars cant be choosers. are we looking at a rapid thaw here or likely to last a day or so?

Really hard call that but again, altitude will help, there will be another good shot on thur night which i feel is better and could stay around for a couple of days,nowcast situation for many.

[swainclubber]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Really hard call that but again, altitude will help, there will be another good shot on thur night which i feel is better and could stay around for a couple of days,nowcast situation for many.

cheers buddy

[northwestsnow]

Just looking at google maps, grains bar in oldham is around 340m above sea level, i would suspect by the end of the week there is could be decent drifts up there, esp for those int the greater manch area, dovestones resevoir just past Greenfield is around 300 m climbing ti around 350m up the road so anyone in the localish area in need of a snow fix id suggest two these esp dovestones

[Spah1]

These higher accumulations are more likely over higher ground above 200 m but may also occur to low levels where showers are heavy and prolonged. This is perhaps most likely across parts of Lancashire, the Manchester area and the Peak District and may result in local medium impacts. Clear spells between showers will also lead to icy stretches forming on untreated surfaces.

 

What could go wrong.

Edited March 1, 2016 by Spah1

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

These higher accumulations are more likely over higher ground above 200 m but may also occur to low levels where showers are heavy and prolonged. This is perhaps most likely across parts of Lancashire, the Manchester area and the Peak District and may result in local medium impacts. Clear spells between showers will also lead to icy stretches forming on untreated surfaces.

 

What could go wrong.

Haha i think we know the answer to the last part

Still, looks decent to me, better get off to bed for a few hours, wonder if there will be any last min hold booked for a night of lampost watching, might bethe one and only chance, although im still liking thur night more !!

[karyo]

According to the 6z GFS and Euro 4 the main opportunity for wintriness is between 6-9am tomorrow when te heaviest precipitation moves through.

I will get up at 7am for work tomorrow so it should be a good time to catch the activity. Not staying up all night, that's for sure.

[dodge]

oh-ho we're not all getting our hopes up are we?  We've been here before this winter, trust me I'm wanting disruptive snow more than anyone, but too many let downs has drained the optimism meter.  Still it makes things Interesting I suppose, rather than mild westerlies chucking water over us for weeks on end.

 

Currently 12c

Edited March 1, 2016 by dodgeredee

[Miamay]

Im crossing my fingers for our first snowfall of the winter !! 

[SP1986]

Its unthinkable that Wirral may actually get snow, I think what we will get is hail and rain.. that's the usual story.

[chicken soup]

At last it looks like i may get to see what snow looks like under my new led lamp post.

Edited March 1, 2016 by chicken soup

[Snowy L]

I just know Liverpool will miss out, I'm having flashbacks of January

Met Office seem confident of snow, but BBC shows rain all day with a temperature of 5c.

[Darren Bown]

Expecting sleet and hail here tonight, I'm too low down!

this evening will probably see ice form anyway if it gets cold enough as the first cold front will most likely be rain or hail unless you are above 200m, then after midnight is when it could start. I would think the window is midnight to around 10am, before it gets warmer in the day.

[weatherobsuk]

Beeb are being conservative about the figures, going for a mere 1-4cm on the tops of the Peaks despite the forecast-run behind them showing a solid 6hr+ snowfall event through the morning. 11'c here in Buxton today and feels spring-like when the sun is out, you wouldn't think that in 15hr from now there's the possibility of some good-amounts of settling snow.

[Frost HoIIow]

  

[Liam J]

All parameters conducive to snow tomorrow morning = 100% risk of snow!