South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 2nd February onwards

[alexisj9]

Clouded over now and it feels cold in that wind.

[stainesbloke]

53 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Going to rain at the weekend.Very disappointing because it is going to be cold for a change, but not cold enough for snow.Unless the flip flopping models flip flop before the weekend, for the 10th flip flopping time.

Am inclined to agree with you, I just don't think it'll be cold enough for snow, certainly of the settling variety. I'm off to Norway on Friday to visit friends in Oslo, hopefully will see some snow there! 

[Kent Blizzard]

Could be a small window of opportunity Saturday morning, shame the continental flow is not a touch colder though as it meets the precipitation, could of been a good staller for a time if so.

[SMU]

Light sleet & hail

 

greenhithe

[EWS]

40 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Light sleet & hail

 

greenhithe

Whaaa?! I'm in Greenhithe and haven't had any! 

[Captain Shortwave]

A few light rain showers here, otherwise sunny spells and patchy cloud.

[Blessed Weather]

I was surprised to watch Alex Deakin on the BBC lunchtime news put up a graphic for Saturday showing a snow risk. He emphasised that the track of the Low is not pinned down and could be further N or S, along with the risk area.

My surprise is because from the publicly available charts I can see, it just doesn't seem cold enough. Here's a couple of GFS charts showing the 850 hPa & SLP plus a Meteociel 850 temps chart showing at best -3C over the south of the UK.

Monday on the other hand shows more potential to me. The -8C 850 hPa isotherm well south of us and N/NE'ly winds bringing precipitation into eastern counties. Can't wait to get into range of the high res models.

 

Edited February 10, 2016 by Blessed Weather

[Alpine glow]

3 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

I was surprised to watch Alex Deakin on the BBC lunchtime news put up a graphic for Saturday showing a snow risk. He emphasised that the track of the Low is not pinned down and could be further N or S, along with the risk area.

My surprise is because from the publicly available charts I can see, it just doesn't seem cold enough. Here's a couple of GFS charts showing the 850 hPa & SLP plus a Meteociel 850 temps chart showing at best -3C over the south of the UK.

Monday on the other hand shows more potential to me. The -8C 850 hPa isotherm well south of us and N/NE'ly winds bringing precipitation into eastern counties. Can't wait to get into range of the high res models.

 

Wow, that certainly gives a little bit of hope

[Daniel*]

Put it in your calendars I'm heading off to Hayling Island got the dates confused.  I just know back in Rotherhithe will see snow meanwhile nearby the Solent, I will be seeing cold rain on the soggy south coast isle, I'm quite sure snow is more abundant in London compared to that part of the world, where it is v rare. 

Edited February 10, 2016 by Daniel*

[Rain123]

21 hours ago, Surrey said:

Ahhh last year watching those elevated storms explode had 3 storms in one night the last I was under it with flashes every second with no thunder.. Quite something 

Yep, it was one if the same cells I had, brilliant. I'm still a bit jealous if your hail shower, so localised.

 Hopefully we will get a bit more snow this year.

[Blessed Weather]

Nice sunset tonight as the late sun shone on the cumulus clouds.

[alexisj9]

Is there a sharp frost forecast for tonight east kent? 

Was suprised to see them gritting just now

[Captain Shortwave]

Backing up Bleesed Weather's post

The ECM at day 5

     

 

A fresh north easterly wind with 850s of -7C across the region. We should be able to drive some showers (mix of sleet and snow) across East Anglia and Kent in particular.

The conditions look the wrong side of marginal at the moment for the weekend, though any areas of rain could turn to sleet and snow on the back edge as it clears into the continent with north easterly winds developing.

[Alpine glow]

48 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Is there a sharp frost forecast for tonight east kent? 

Was suprised to see them gritting just now

They are also gritting in Brighton

[Dami]

We might get some sleet on sat. OMG OMG OMG.

*runs around in circles*

 

[Dami]

2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Put it in your calendars I'm heading off to Hayling Island from 15th to 20th next week I just know back in Rotherhithe will see snow meanwhile nearby the Solent, I will be seeing cold rain on the soggy south coast isle, I'm quite sure snow is more abundant in London compared to that part of the world, where it is v rare. 

Love love love hayling island, used to holiday there alot as a child. Had a lovely Thunderstorm one year, it's was quite something.

perhaps you might get lucky that way

Edited February 10, 2016 by Dami

[tinybill]

it  do  make  me  smile when reading  the model thread !!!   if the BBC wont  or cant put were  the  low  going  to be  Saturday they  say  we  will  tell you Friday     we  hope!!!  what hope  have  will  even  the models  are all over the  place

[Daniel*]

Just now, Dami said:

Love love love hayling island, used to holiday there alot as a child. Had a lovely Thunderstorm one year, it's quite something.

perhaps you might get lucky that way

Aye same last year there was a terrific squall the IOW and that general area seems to do very well for that sort of stuff, it will be nice to get out of London with someone else doing the cooking and whatnot the fresh country air and a nice glug of sea air, good for the soul. it is quite a nostalgic place for me and it has many happy memories, little changes unlike London I'm quite drawn to the coast as a whole.

Cheers, I hope the bedford snow shield deactivates! The weather is not looking chirpy oh well.

i hope the whole snow shield devouring our region is consumed I do think there is a very high chance whether we will get proper snow cover sketchy ground.

[Ben Lewis]

This time on Tuesday I would have arrived in Montreal and had my first day in the city. 

Currently -10 during the day with temps dropping as low as -20 by night.

Heaps of snow forecast for my stay during the 2 weeks I'm there. Cannot wait. I lived there for a year back in 2008 - beautiful city with proper seasons. Boiling summer/brutal cold snowy winter. 

Hope you guys here manage at least one snow event Saturday/next week. It needs to happen - makes yet another dire winter that bit more bareable! 

[Daniel*]

Risk of a Kent streamer of sorts probably affecting the extreme E of Kent, opportunity between late Sunday into Monday as winds veer more easterly NNE'ly traveling over relatively warm North Sea several degrees Celsius above average due to you guess what perhaps a good thing in this scenario with 850's not spectacular there's a quite big gradient. 

The extreme SE may possibility see a trail of quite constant snow showers moving in, which we know can deposit a lot of snow. I'm not sure whether the depth of cold is sufficient, but the potential is there and I wouldn't expect the models to have a great handle on it, the radar is your friend for that.

Edited February 10, 2016 by Daniel*

[March]

1 hour ago, Ben Lewis said:

This time on Tuesday I would have arrived in Montreal and had my first day in the city. 

Currently -10 during the day with temps dropping as low as -20 by night.

Heaps of snow forecast for my stay during the 2 weeks I'm there. Cannot wait. I lived there for a year back in 2008 - beautiful city with proper seasons. Boiling summer/brutal cold snowy winter. 

Hope you guys here manage at least one snow event Saturday/next week. It needs to happen - makes yet another dire winter that bit more bareable! 

Those second rate Frenchies can keep the brutal extremes thanks! 

[Jo S]

Just got in from work, the roads have been gritted, quite icy out there,-1 here at the moment 

[Daniel*]

18z emphasises the risk with a more easterly element

Great chart -10C isotherm blanketing us all with a bitter ne'ly = lake effect type snow for prone counties like Kent. 

I hope this is not too much to ask.....?

 

Edited February 10, 2016 by Daniel*

[lottiekent]

I hope so! It's been a long long time since we saw snow on the ground! Or even falling from the sky. 

[Snoopie42]

Morning all.....gorgeous morning, cold, heavy frost and pink clouds....how a winters morning should be if we cant have snow!  Still a very, very slight risk of seeing something wintry on Sunday Evening if these charts verify.....

Slackish flow from the continent.....

528 Dam line across most of the Region.....

Some light precipitation, therefore, no evaporative cooling there!......

Temperature not great, however, one massive 'Straw Clutch' is that the flow is from the continent, therefore, the air will be drier......?

Nothing much to hang your hat on, probably a little sleet at best, however, miracles do happen, don't they......?

Some interest for something more wintry next week as @Daniel* has posted above, however, its too early to predict what will happen at this range, therefore, for now, just some interesting charts to view. I'm sure we will all be speaking about them in the next few days willing them to verify!! Have a great day all.

 

 

 

Edited February 11, 2016 by Snoopie42