South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 2nd February onwards

[Snoopie42]

2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Available here: http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gfs&run=12&type=SN&hi=120&hf=240&mode=latest&lang=en&map=eur

Cheers Mapantz, thats very helpful...for the 3rd time this week!! Gold Star for you!

[Snoopie42]

1 hour ago, Kent Blizzard said:

With the chart in mention that Daniel posted, I'd like to see the ones for the next 48 to 72hrs,

Try these - From today until Monday?

Accumulated Rain ......   Accumulated Snow......

Not very hopeful for snow based upon these!

[Rain123]

We had a nice frost here to start today and then it was a day of sunny spells with some cumulus cloud around. Tomorrow looks like sunshine and showers.

[Captain Shortwave]

There was a slight air frost here this morning. A fine day with sunny spells. 

Still looking at Monday as showing the best potential for snow showers. A north easterly would favour areas such as Kent and East Sussex as well as areas in direct line of showers coming in from the Wash. 850s look to be around the -7/8C mark which should be fine for snow as long as we can get them to verify or even upgrade.

Edited February 11, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Daniel*]

The trusty ARPEGE does not rule out wintry precipitation out of Saturday's channel low keeping the dream alive.  

[alexisj9]

Goner be another frosty night, they just gritted here, also some mist setting in.

[alexisj9]

I'm a little confused why they gritted as it looks like some showers will come up from the SW slowly, so I doubt there will be a frost, and it's not normally a snowy direction either.

[Daniel*]

As posted in MOD thread the evening ECMWF is showing a potential snow day for London and southeast precip comes from a slider to the SW of England in all likelihood north of London may remain dry altogether. As we enter nightfall & temperatures fall - in an easterly flow of all things not a modified PM airmass, we're so very accustomed to. Meaning early rain/sleet as temperatures are too high may transition to snow giving a surprise?

I do think this has a reasonable chance of happening despite being at T+78.

Sunday evening:

Uppers roughly -5C I would think this would fall largely as snow inland, well before global warming  a sleety mix for coasts. Moderate precipitation over the London area. 

You can view these charts from here - http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=cloud

[Daniel*]

20 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I'm a little confused why they gritted as it looks like some showers will come up from the SW slowly, so I doubt there will be a frost, and it's not normally a snowy direction either.

The forecast mentioned wintry showers. 

[steveinsussex]

interesting few days coming up

[alexisj9]

temp is going down here now 2 with dew point of 0.8. Unusual with showers moving up from the SW. Anything heavy might atcully snow, a real shame my street light is broken.

Edited February 11, 2016 by alexisj9

[Kent Blizzard]

 well well well helllooooo 

Streamer

[Daniel*]

120hr fax is very interesting -spot the convergence zone  

[Kent Blizzard]

Spooky Daniel^^^^ posted same chart minute before.

if we could bank that I'd be very happy indeed. Fax chart of the winter!

[<<Ryan>>]

Heavy sleet shower here just now. Cars still covered in frost, going to be very icy in the morning!

Scrap that, heavy rain and frost is slowly disappearing lol.

Edited February 12, 2016 by <<Ryan>>

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Woken up to more ice than frost, there are patches but the ice ice is bad esp on roads also signs of some wintry ppn over night in the form of graple with a few patches too and on cars..

Shame it won't be cold enough on lower ground for anything wintry till Sunday unless the low goes south earlier than expected

Certainly feel a few suprises in the short term for some of the white stuff

Some nice towers too this morning which is rare at this time of day..

 

Edited February 12, 2016 by Surrey

[Rain123]

We have some nice, grey cumulus\ small cumulonimbus heading this way. Looks like it will produce some rain. Also, had a heavy shower last night which woke me up.

[alexisj9]

Cloudy here, with occasional very light drizzle, more like a slight mist. Temp 2.4 dp 1.7. Very cold wind blowing in from the se.

[Kent Blizzard]

Big window of opportunity tomorrow, NE'ly and precipitation are two major boxes ticked.

Will be very disappointing if the DP & Dam don't play ball.

[Daniel*]

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Turning colder with overnight frosts, but also plenty of dry, bright weather by day. However, strong northeasterly winds will drive snow showers into northern and eastern parts Sunday and Monday.

Updated at: 0043 on Fri 12 Feb 2016

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Turning colder with overnight frosts, but also plenty of dry, bright weather by day. However, strong northeasterly winds will drive snow showers into northern and eastern parts Sunday and Monday.

Updated at: 0043 on Fri 12 Feb 2016

................and miss my backyard no doubt A couple of days with no rain and my neighbour does a Texas chainsaw massacre of his garden. He's chopped all his trees down What a pillock! Cool, cloudy and breezy 6.3c

Edited February 12, 2016 by lassie23

[Daniel*]

The NE'ly is going to source from a sufficiently cold Scandinavia.

Nice looking synoptic - risk of Kent Streamer? 

 

Definite instability with sea surface temperature 'toasty'. 10C SST's off the Kent coast remarkably warm...also these figures for Thames estuary.

I'm convinced it may get quite busy in here...let the radar be your friend.   

Edited February 12, 2016 by Daniel*
Polish

[Daniel*]

Cheeky ENE wind for a time on Sunday, perhaps ECMWF is showing a Thames streamer - that does sound far fetched in all honesty a possibility nonetheless. 

Thoughts?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Cheeky ENE wind for a time on Sunday, perhaps ECMWF is showing a Thames streamer - that does sound far fetched in all honesty a possibility nonetheless. 

Thoughts?

Possible... The flow would push the PPN well inland given it looks quite strong, the only down side is ideally for a decent streamer you want -10 - -15 uppers a rare sight I know...  -7 to -9 would do it JUST

[Methuselah]

I'm none to hopeful, TBH...What use will a Thames Streamer be with surface temps somewhere in the region of 7C? It would, I think, by quite good, were it March or April - but, February? I'm not so sure???