Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[mb018538]

GFS this morning probably shows a best case scenario, and what we've been experiencing most of the summer thus far - heat via a stalled trough out west rather than a sustained build of high pressure. I'd take it though!

[Frosty.]

39 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS this morning probably shows a best case scenario, and what we've been experiencing most of the summer thus far - heat via a stalled trough out west rather than a sustained build of high pressure. I'd take it though!

Charts?

[knocker]

Needless to say the ecm is not in accordance with the GFS towards the end of the run. It does have the low residing north of Scotland for a while but it slowly fills and moves into the north North Sea allowing the westerly regime with a N/S split to return.

[mb018538]

I thought you did the charts frosty!

 

This is what I was referring to. ECM at 240 is very promising, with high pressure starting to move in. At odds with other output at the moment, so one to perhaps keep an eye on, but not to pin hope on (for the time being!)

Edited July 5, 2016 by mb018538

[I remember Atlantic 252]

will be warmer in 5-6 months

[Gordon Webb]

45 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I thought you did the charts frosty!

 

This is what I was referring to. ECM at 240 is very promising, with high pressure starting to move in. At odds with other output at the moment, so one to perhaps keep an eye on, but not to pin hope on (for the time being!)

isn't that +316 rather than +240

[I remember Atlantic 252]

22 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

isn't that +316 rather than +240

it is and it's GFS not ECM

[mb018538]

Yes sorry for the confusion - the attached picture is the 00z GFS +316 hours. The ECM 240 chart that I haven't posted up isn't bad either!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

** PLUME ALERT ** 

a hot outlier from gfs 06z

[Frosty.]

Charts like these from the Gfs 6z make me wish it was winter already!... Brrrrr

[Frosty.]

And charts like these from the 6z make me wish it was summer!

Edited July 5, 2016 by Frosty.

[MP-R]

24 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

And charts like these from the 6z make me wish it was summer!

The even better thing about those charts is that with the 15C isotherm shown across a swathe of the country. temperatures would likely be nearer 28-32C especially in prolonged sunny spells. Classic 3-4 fine days and a thunderstorm setup shown in FI, going bang just before I jet off to southern Spain for me holidubs! If only eh. Lots of other weather to get through first.

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, MP-R said:

 If only eh. Lots of other weather to get through first.

Yes it's what this dismal summer is crying out for, some heat and dry weather, even in the horrible summer last year we had that one spectacular hot plume when temps hit 37c 99f at Heathrow on July 1st 2015..hopefully things will change.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean is improving, it really is! There is increasing Azores High ridge influence through the mid July period, especially further south....this indicates spells of fine and warm weather, at least for the south of the BI.

Edited July 5, 2016 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

If you thought the Gfs 6z operational was just a fluke with its hot plume, it isn't, there are some very promising 6z perturbations showing plumes and anticyclonic scenarios through the mid to late July period.. so, although flaming June went in the bin, there is a possibility that the second half of July could breathe some much needed life into summer 2016!. And who knows what August could bring.

[northwestsnow]

GFS 12z is another horror show with the trough after trough and very supressed temps all the way out.

For the love of  God will these troughs PLEASE leave us alone!!!!!!!!!

[Captain Shortwave]

Regarding the coming weekend...

   

The UKMO is offering hope especially for more southern areas with perhaps something warmer and drier developing for a tie, possibly very warm if the UKMO is onto something. The GFS and GEM are flatter and force frontal systems through much quicker.

[Frosty.]

speaking of this weekend, it could be 80F in the south on Saturday as an unusually deep depression for July heading for NW Scotland helps to scoop up more of a southerly draw..the warmest day of this spell.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

speaking of this weekend, it could be 80F in the south on Saturday as an unusually deep depression for July heading for NW Scotland helps to scoop up more of a southerly draw..the warmest day of this spell.

Yes Frosty, Carol at Wimbledon said mid to high 20's for finals weekend, 

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes Frosty, Carol at Wimbledon said mid to high 20's for finals weekend, 

Yes it's looking like an increasingly very warm and humid weekend in the s / se, ukmo 12z looks good for those areas.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean indicates the Azores high will be ridging in close to the sw / s following next weeks generally unsettled spell. It looks like becoming more of a  n / s split with more in the way of fine and warm spells across southern uk and progressively more changeable / unsettled further n / nw but I wouldn't rule out more of an anticyclonic period at some point during the second half of July.

[William of Walworth]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS 12z is another horror show with the trough after trough and very supressed temps all the way out.

For the love of  God will these troughs PLEASE leave us alone!!!!!!!!!

Is this consistent across the board with all the different outputs though?  I appreciate Frosty is a professional optimist , and finds charts to back that up, but what you've posted there seems to be completely ignoring the chances of increased HP influence later in July, that some recent output seems to be starting to support now.

 

ETA : Just noticed you're in Oldham, and OK fair enough, it does look like further South is more likely to benefit from any more summer-like conditions. Possibly!

Edited July 5, 2016 by William of Walworth

[phil nw.]

It continues to be a case of chasing the rather short fine spells and brief periods of warm sunshine as the changeable theme continues in todays models.A chance for something much warmer at the end of the week in the south east quadrant but it could be a very brief warm up before we come under the influence of another dig south of the Icelandic trough.

Here's Saturday on the GFS

parts of England and Wales briefly in the warm humid air from the transient ridging.Maybe mid 20c's in favoured spots.

UKMO looks to hang on to that little ridge a little longer and at day 5 is slower in bringing in the cooler Atlantic compared to the GFS and ECM

just a matter of timing by the looks though before we descend into a cooler more unsettled spell early next week as the westerlies sweep more rain in again.

Never far from our shores the jet stream is modeled to take another plunge south after the weekend.

A look at the 00z temp graph for London

shows how even the more favoured south east struggles to hold on to any significant heat as it cools down again next week.That jet path continuing to meander across the UK with changeable weather locking the real heat further south than we would like to see in July.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 5, 2016 by phil nw.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, William of Walworth said:

I appreciate Frosty is a professional optimist , 

Next week does look unsettled as another trough swings SE from Iceland with sunshine and heavy showers with thunder and bands of rain with a few pleasant interludes in the south but I am more optimistic we could see more of the Azores high than so far this summer from around mid July onwards, especially across the southern half of the BI...and I really wouldn't rule out a stronger anticyclonic spell before the end of the month.

Edited July 5, 2016 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

I just had a look through the GEFS 12z perturbations and found plenty of anticyclonic potential just beyond day 10 so hopefully the second half of July will be more summery!