Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a ridge building in close to the south next week and warmer upper air (850s) flooding in from the southwest, the south would potentially see 24/25c for a time after midweek and it also looks relatively warmer than this week in other areas too. It's not a settled outlook by any means, the northwest corner of the BI looks most unsettled but overall it's not looking as cloudy, cool or rainy as this week, indeed the south would have some fine spells, more so than this week at least.

[Sn0wmad79]

Other than getting a tad milder the outlook still looking terrible with more and more low pressure systems heading our way. Wash out summer for most! Hoping that will change in time for August.

[knocker]

42 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Temps would actually be a little above average for a time next week if the ecm is right with low to mid 20s c in the south and more settled in the south for a few days, certainly warmer than this week anyways!

I don't disagree that temps will be on occasion a little above average but others times a little below. Hence my commentt for the week around average.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

I don't disagree that temps will be on occasion a little above average but others times a little below. Hence my commentt for the week around average.

Fair comment knocker, I'm splitting hairs but it does look a bit warmer than this week at least and if the ukmo 12z was right, rather drier and brighter too, at least further south. :- )

[knocker]

The ecm 6-10 anomaly this evening has twin troughs Scandinavia and mid Atlantic with the latter positively tilted which does allow a period when the Azores HP to influence the southern part of the UK. Unfortunately the trough becomes more organised in the ext period with a slight negative tilt which snuffs out the Azores. NOAA is perhaps suggesting this as well. So the upper flow remaining in the westerly quadrant and a continuation of the unsettled weather, with the caveat above, and temps certainly no great shakes. The chart is the 850mb temp distribution rather than hPa and GP height anomaly

Edited July 1, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Much better from GFS this morning with HP putting up a bit more resistance. Hopefully ECM will be similar!!

[knocker]

Most of the heavy showers in the next 24hrs will be concentrated in the north and north west. Moving on and time for some speculation and wondering where the METO is coming from with the possibility of warm, or very warm, for the south in the latter half of the month, Perhaps as noted at the end of the GEFS anomaly this morning height rises over Europe into Scandinavia and scope for low pressure development Iberia. Anyway just mulling over the possibilities which takes ones mind of the current scenario although there is a transient ridge next week

[Man With Beard]

Looking a little better for next week now. All models seem agreed on a weak ridge for the the middle of the week, strongest of all on the ECM. Given the time of year, I imagine mid twenties will be possible at some point (more widely low twenties). Further on, still some depressions getting close to the country but signs on the ECM of them moving in more of a SW - NE trajectory and passing to the NW, which would increase the draw of warmer air. The GFS looks keener to lift the jet a little north more generally. So potential for morr sustained  improvements by mid-month, though it must be stressed that troughing remains favourite for being the main influence on our weather, for now at least.

[knocker]

The ecm has brief ridging Tues/Weds with temps a little below normal before he ho said rowley at the weekend

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op run is easier on the eye this morning with temperatures gradually becoming more respectable, into the low 20s celsius and more in the way of high pressure (ridging) through the run, the 00z even ends with a hot plume drifting up from the near continent. In the meantime, we are still on the cool side of the jetstream, the jet is much further south than most of us want it to be in the height of summer, parts of scotland has even had a ground frost but things change next week. A ridge of high pressure builds NE across the uk and most of us have a window of largely fine weather with temps rising, especially through midweek with 21/22c instead of the pathetic14/16c some of us have endured this week..it's not a settled run, we would still have more rain and heavy showers at times but with spells of fine weather too and temps generally feeling more like July!

[mb018538]

It's pathetic really, why are we constantly having to deal with a strong Jetstream and semi-permanent southerly tracking lows virtually every summer for the last decade  

[Summer Sun]

If ECM is right we should get 2 or 3 days of longer drier spells with temps into the low 20's for some parts

Then just in time for the weekend another low heads our way

This pulls away allowing pressure to rise from the south but never really having much of a say with low pressure never far away

[knocker]

The ecm is showing no great relief from the trough in the 14 day period with temps remaining depressed

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean looks better, especially by mid July with more Azores high influence and warmer temps, especially in the south, better jet alignment to make it easier for the high to build in through the 2nd half of July... hopefully!

Edited July 2, 2016 by Frosty.

[DR(S)NO]

47 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm is showing no great relief from the trough in the 14 day period with temps remaining depressed

It's not the only thing that's depressed Knocker... Currently 12c and pouring .. Not my idea of Summer ... And little to see by way of improvement .

[johnholmes]

On the anomaly charts the GFS version this morning has the first signal for a ridge from NW of Iberia towards the UK, EC does not and nor did NOAA 6-10 or 8-14 last evening. So currently it is 2 to 1 against the ridge idea but this can change so we need to watch these outputs over the next 2-3 days to see which version settles.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op shows a weak ridge of high pressure for a time next week with some drier and sunnier weather but the overall theme remains changeable / unsettled with troughs but with transient ridges too and temps next week look more respectable, into the low 20s celsius.

[summer blizzard]

Not an inspiring run as we see at the day 5, 10 and 15 intervals..

[damianslaw]

Dipping in and out of the models at the moment, as I tend to do at this time of year.. summer doldrums period.. All models continue to paint a generally unsettled westerly dominated pattern in the main for the foreseeable, taking us up to the main high summer period (roughly mid July - mid August, when annual mean temps hit their peak.. and the northern hemisphere firmly entrenches into its high summer state). 

Weak ridge development from the SW will mean southern parts should see some fair weather middle of next week with more respectable temperatures for the time of year, the north looks destined to see rather more unsettled cool conditions and the medium range trend is unfortunately for the ridge to be kicked aside by trough development to the NW, which will most likely produce a cool wet cloudy weekend next week.

A word on today, its woeful here, heavy rain, no visibility, gusty winds and a temp of 11.8 degrees at 3pm on the 2 July, colder than many a October and November day. No July Saturday summery feeling.. tomorrow hopefully looks a fair bit better though temps still significantly under par, but not by a silly 7-8 degrees!

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Not an inspiring run as we see at the day 5, 10 and 15 intervals..

This is not good at all. By looking at these theirs a feeling July will be a poorer one. Its a good job 10day+ might be considered experimental And yet the other day in Siberia around 30c was recorded, a massive 15-20c above average!

Edited July 2, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[knocker]

Again brief ridging Tues/Weds before the next systems start arriving. A beady need be kept on next weekend.

Edited July 2, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows a ridge of high pressure building in through the first half of next week bringing drier, brighter and warmer weather for a few days, especially further s / se with temps rising into the low 20s celsius which would make a pleasant change from the mid to upper teens c most of us have had this week. The ridge subsides SE later next week with pressure falling to the northwest but at least it looks more seasonal next week.

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12z also shows the weak ridge bringing better weather than we have seen this week, especially further south / southeast and also suggests higher temps, into the low 20s celsius, around 21/22c and maybe a notch higher for london and the SE.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z looks warmer as next week goes on with temps rising into the low to mid 20's celsius across southern uk, high teens to low 20's further nw and potentially reaching 80F in the s/se for a time later next week with 564 dam thicknesses into the s between T+144 / 168 hours. A ridge of high pressure settles things down for a time next week, again, more so further s but with pressure then falling and increasing humidity, it looks like thundery showers for the s, becoming more unsettled to the  NW and  fresher air spreads from the west before another ridge tries building NE...it's a warmer run next week, much more like July should be!

Edited July 2, 2016 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean is pretty much like the operational run with a ridge building in during the first half of next week and temperatures gradually rising with potentially mid 20s celsius for the south of the UK with the SE then staying warm and humid for longest but pleasantly warmer than this week further north too. So, although the overall pattern remains changeable / unsettled, some fine weather is expected next week, more so than this week, particularly the further s / se you are and noticeably warmer than this week. Towards the end of the run it becomes generally unsettled from the NW with temps around average.