Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Frosty.]

The models are havin a laff, mid July on the Gfs 12z...

Should I laugh or cry or both! At least it's deep Fi

[Frosty.]

Just to prove that not all the Gefs 12z perturbations are as vile as the Gfs 12z op, here is some eye candy, especially P11 / 17

[Frosty.]

Nobody seems to be posting so I will describe the Ecm 12z operational run. It's changeable / unsettled throughout, however, there is a suggestion that southern areas could have at least some dry and bright weather for a time during the first half of next week as a ridge flirts with the far south but all in all its showing more rain interspersed with sunshine and heavy showers with a risk of thunder. Temperature wise, not cool all the time, not as cool as this week, there are some warmer days and more humid at times with temps into the low 20's celsius, mainly further south but generally temps around average, quite breezy at times too.

[Scorcher]

The ECM 12Z does look better for most than this week- not a great summer run by any means though! It does look for the most part warmer than this week but the upper air temperatures towards the end are horrifying for July- hard to believe we're dealing with yet another finger of green snot from the north, which yet again doesn't touch anywhere else in Europe-

Looking very hot in Spain however! Luckily for us that chart is in FI at the moment.

[knocker]

The anomalies tonight are pretty much on the same page in the 6-10 period. Low pressure Iceland with associated troughs running SE and SW giving an upper westerly flow over the UK so remaining generally unsettled and temps depressed. There is of course room for some brief drier and slightly warmer periods within this long wave pattern with perhaps the ecm indicating this but there will be a tendency for them to be more confined to the south.

Moving on to the ext period sees the low pressure area over Iceland becoming more concentrated with a trough running south to the north west of the UK so the unsettled weather continuing with less chance of drier and warmer incursions with the temps below average. I will be interested in what the EC32 has to say tonight as we approaching the time of the warmer and more settled weather that the METO has been indicating.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well that would be some turn up....-1/-2 upper air temps in the middle of July

By day 9 the foundations are laid for what is a truly horrific FI in terms of summer

Leading to

Edited June 30, 2016 by CreweCold

[knocker]

The latest EC32 means update.

Starting where we left off last night on the 15th

The trough to the NW bringing a fairly strong westerly flow to the UK thus unsettled and temps a little below average.

Thereafter the trough weakens quite quickly allowing the Azores HP to push north in mid Atlantic so although the W/NW wind regime persists it's more under anticyclonic influence. This scenario with LP to the NW persists well into August and keeps temps around average. Although this analysis is a distinct improvement on the outlook for the next 14 days it's bit knife edgy with LP always lurking to the NW leaving just how much influence the Azores will exert open to some doubt. At the moment it's difficult to tie this in with the METO update but these are only the means and the latter has much more info available. Perhaps the Azores ridging into the Atlantic and slack low pressure in western Europe again.

Edited July 1, 2016 by knocker

[mb018538]

UKMO isn't too bad this morning, ties in with the BBC update last night, though not entirely in harmony with GFS. Weak ridge covering the UK, and the low slightly further away at 144 hours. GFS is a horror show once more.....days and days of charts like these start to make you fear for the summer! Fingers crossed something changes pretty soon.

[Frosty.]

25 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

UKMO isn't too bad this morning, ties in with the BBC update last night, though not entirely in harmony with GFS. Weak ridge covering the UK, and the low slightly further away at 144 hours. GFS is a horror show once more.....days and days of charts like these start to make you fear for the summer! Fingers crossed something changes pretty soon.

Agreed, the ukmo 00z shows the Azores high ridging into the south of the UK next week which would give some fine pleasantly warm weather, at least across the south of the UK so not as unseasonably cool or as unsettled as this week, not as bad further north either.

[johnholmes]

ay but a pretty feeble sort of ridge and the other two, if anything, make even less of it!

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

@johnholmes

True John, it's a feeble ridge, hardly worthy being called a ridge but at least it indicates a better week than this week further south.

Apologies for messing up the quote

Quote

 

 

[Scorcher]

It may be a feeble sort of ridge but it's nevertheless very welcome- with such a bleak outlook over the last few days I will take anything I can get. Next week is looking like a slight improvement on this week for the southern half of the UK (not hard I know!).

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean shows the weak ridge across the south @ T+120 hours so some respite from the cool unsettled summer in the south for a time next week.

[Summer Sun]

Matt Hugo has posted some anomalies which show no change heading out to mid month

 

[Polar Maritime]

Certainly no change from the GFS this morning, With further fronts pushing in off the Atlantic next week on a strong Westerly flow. The only up-tick is temps will be nearer average for the far South. 

 

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

With such High anomalies over the Pole predicted, It's hardly surprising what we are seeing being churned out by the Models for our small part of the world. Low Pressure has to go somewhere..

 

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

With such High anomalies over the Pole predicted, It's hardly surprising what we are seeing being churned out by the Models for our small part of the world. Low Pressure has to go somewhere..

 

Yes pm it's turning into a crap summer, that's for sure :-(

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

ay but a pretty feeble sort of ridge and the other two, if anything, make even less of it!

It's the kind of set-up where that's what we're going to have to settle for. Short windows of warmth between Atlantic interruptions. Certainly looks that way until mid-July. Not terrible - but is there a chance we won't record 30C this summer?

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 00z mean, still no support for the Azores high to build in by mid July..more runs needed..lol

[mb018538]

There's always a chance - but we realistically have another 8-9 weeks where this is possible. Discount the first half of July as this looks like a write off now, so we have maybe 6 weeks to salvage something from this potential train wreck of a summer.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Discount the first half of July as this looks like a write off now, so we have maybe 6 weeks to salvage something from this potential train wreck of a summer.

Agreed, any potential pattern change is still at least 3 weeks away.

Looking at the GEFS 00z mean, still no support for the Azores high to build in by mid July..more runs needed..lol

[Man With Beard]

This is not good though ... deep trough setting up to the east, that's going to make it even harder for the hot stuff to get here:

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Can someone provide an explanation as to why the jet is so strong this summer ? Anything to do with Atlantic SSTs, fewer sunspots ?

[Polar Maritime]

10 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Can someone provide an explanation as to why the jet is so strong this summer ? Anything to do with Atlantic SSTs, fewer sunspots ?

I would say with such Heights over the Poles which in turn is pushing Low Pressure South and taking the Jet with it over us and splitting. What is coursing this is open to question, As was stated earlier in the year.. We realy are in unchartered territory regarding the key background players, So its hard to pin the tail on the Donkey so to speak..

Edited July 1, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

26 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Can someone provide an explanation as to why the jet is so strong this summer ? Anything to do with Atlantic SSTs, fewer sunspots ?

Who knows but at the end of the day it's down to atmospheric circulation and thus pressure distribution (highs and lows) which determine the  position of the jet stream.