Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[northwestsnow]

I'm watching 12z GFS willing the high from the SW to ridge over us to give us some respite, but i see a huge Greeny block developing at 144 so i would imagine if we get a ridge it will last a day or 2 at most.

Fed up doesn't even come close to how im feeling about this 'summer'...

[Frosty.]

The good news from the Gfs 12z op is that next week doesn't look as unsettled as this week in the south as a ridge of high pressure builds across southern areas.. no it's not perfect, far from it but the south / southeast has a window of fine and pleasantly warm weather for a time next week. It's a different story further n / nw where it stays unsettled and cooler. The unsettled weather spreads to all areas later next week but through low res there is a stronger Azores / Atlantic ridge which extends across the southern half of the UK with the jetstream forced further north for a time and a spell of settled and pleasantly warm weather..yes it could be a lot better and hopefully it will by the second half of July.

Edited June 28, 2016 by Frosty.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Eh? 28C is sometimes our highest temperature, and there have been years when it hasn't been reached at all. We've already got close to that in Manchester though. In an average year you wouldn't really expect 28C here before July.

The 28c I mentioned was actually for the UK as a whole not just for Manchester, so looking ahead on the model runs ending mid-July and I see no sign of any such temps for the UK as a whole, I cant even see temps into the mid-20s let alone 28c, should've had somewhere in the UK officially hitting 28c by mid-july.

[markyo]

17 minutes ago, 40*C said:

The 28c I mentioned was actually for the UK as a whole not just for Manchester, so looking ahead on the model runs ending mid-July and I see no sign of any such temps for the UK as a whole, I cant even see temps into the mid-20s let alone 28c, should've had somewhere in the UK officially hitting 28c by mid-july.

Thankfully it is starting to look like hitting those sort of temps this summer are growing smaller,not out of the question by any means but not looking good for you at the moment.

[Frosty.]

Without a doubt this is the best looking GEFS mean for a while from the 12z with good support for a spell of fine and pleasantly warm weather, at least across the south of the uk next week and longer range, the Azores high builds in more strongly than before which would make sense since the met office are still indicating a possible mid July pattern change to warmer and more settled weather, I would go further and say the update hints at very warm continental / humid thundery weather too..hope we do see a major change in around a few weeks time.

[phil nw.]

Yes the GFS mean is looking a little more promising Frosty as go into week 2.

The pattern is still rather underwhelming though as we retain a westerly flow with still rather depressed temperatures,especially further north.

Some signs though of the Azores high at least ridging a little further north at times but we still have that changeable theme in the outlook.The Icelandic trough seemingly stubbornly persistent.

I think we are still relying on transient ridges for the fine interludes until we see a stronger signal for rising pressure further north than currently shown.

 

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes the GFS mean is looking a little more promising Frosty as go into week 2.

The pattern is still rather underwhelming though as we retain a westerly flow with still rather depressed temperatures,especially further north.

Some signs though of the Azores high at least ridging a little further north at times but we still have that changeable theme in the outlook.The Icelandic trough seemingly stubbornly persistent.

I think we are still relying on transient ridges for the fine interludes until we see a stronger signal for rising pressure further north than currently shown.

 

Agreed Phil, it's the best GEFS mean longer range for some considerable time. :- )

[Summer Sun]

Sunday on-ward's sees pressure hovering around 1020MB on the London ens

The Manchester ens is between 1015mb and 1020mb

For Aberdeen it takes longer to settle down

This would suggest the Azores edging up and bringing a more typical north, south split with the driest and warmest weather in the south and east, whilst Scotland sees the bulk of the unsettled weather and in the middle a bit of both

 

[mb018538]

Looks a smidgen better, but with only weak ridges to offer anything more settled, we are always at risk of fronts spoiling things. Chin up though! Better than a couple of days ago!

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z op has an encouraging ending with the Azores ridge nicely aligned to build NE from T+240 hours.

In the meantime it looks unsettled and rather cool / breezy through to the end of this week including the weekend but then next week it turns into a north / south split with the trough filling and drifting away NE as a ridge of high pressure extends across southern areas with at least some fine and pleasantly warm weather further south and east, actually the n / nw would improve for a time too, certainly looking better than this week will be and although it looks generally more changeable / unsettled and cooler across northern uk for most of the time, day 10 onwards shows good potential for most of the UK going forward.

[northwestsnow]

ecm is better, really hoping its right with more ridge than trough domination, meto update not very enthusiastic so im a doubter as it stands.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows some weak Azores ridge influence across the south next week as it nudges in from the southwest so the best of any fine and pleasantly warm weather would be in the south, not completely dry but drier compared to this week with max temps close to 70F in the south but nearer low to mid 60's F further n / nw. The north of the UK looks most unsettled through the next 10 days.

[knocker]

Although still low pressure over the Pole the trough to the north is weakening allowing a more westerly upper flow with  the HP to the south west. Ergo still unsettled with temps generally a little below average but tending towards the N/S split with the drier and warmer weather to the south.

Although not complete agreement between the three in the ext period it's fair comment to say  the low pressure resides to the north west and the HP to the south west thus the westerly upper flow is maintained so still tending towards unsettled but with drier and warmer interludes as the interplay between the cold/warm air traverses the UK. In general temps still a little depressed.

Edited June 28, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

The outlook remains unsettled from the GFS this morning. No surprise there. No point in looking too far ahead from just one run so sticking to the next seven days.

Today sees a front crossing the country from the west bringing rain to most parts with the main belt affecting the west and north. Thereafter with low pressure to the north the UK will be in a showery westerly flow with some periods of more prolonged rain but of course with the mandatory drier and sunnier periods. Temps generally a little below average.

[knocker]

Now where are the cool spots? Oh

Edited June 29, 2016 by knocker

[mb018538]

Not much to shout about this morning - just looks like a diluted version of what we have now, with low pressure not quite as dominant, but certainly not warm, and certainly not settled either.

[terrier]

Well once again the output from the gfs and ecm this morning is once again showing a unsettled theme. Maybe slightly better further south at times but certainly nothing to right home about. Thankfully I'm heading to Benidorm for 3 weeks as from Friday hopefully I can bring some spainish warmth back on my return. 

[phil nw.]

Looking at the 00z ens outputs.

The ECM mean charts for day 5 and 10 do indicate some shrinking north of this persistent Icelandic trough.

so one would expect some more noticeable drier and brighter interludes next week than the current almost daily rain bands coming through,this especially further south.

Still depressed maximum temperatures expected though.A glance at the GFS ens.graph for Warks.

shows we will be struggling to reach 20C or so at best- so certainly poor as we head into July.That westerly flow still quite cool so it is a case of looking for the odd dry day or two between the fronts under any transient ridging from the Azores high, which still remains too far away to be of much influence nationwide.

 

[stodge]

Morning all

For fans of heat and sun, the GFS 06Z isn't that inspiring:

No point calling a spade a garden implement, this is a lousy chart and all we can hope is low-res offers some hint of something better.

The jet running right across southern Britain so transient settled spells between periods of rain looks the form horse.

ECM marginally better though both it and GEM emphasise the fact we are on the wrong side of the tracks as far as heat is concerned with everything currently bottled up to the south and heights over the Pole.

 

[knocker]

The ecm 6-10 anomaly this this morning as has been previously mentioned continues with the unsettled picture. Regarding the ext EPS if is not dissimilar to this chert but has a general area of LP to the NW and HP nudging north to the SW giving an almost 50/50 N/S split. Temps only slowly moving towards average

 

[MP-R]

When will this diatribe end?! The models really are painting an arduous picture as we move into July - by no means a rerun of our worst summers but just sheer boring (personally anyway). I'm sure certain people will welcome cloud, wind and rain.

This chart for July 01st doesn't look out of place in early March this year, just imagining the -5C isotherm crossing the country on a stiff WNW wind and plenty of showers.

In FI, dangerously close to a plume with this chart, and probably so if the low weren't so strong:

All in all, very uneventful viewing with charts more akin to mid September onwards. Really need that Azores high to make its summer migration northwards!

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op is autumnal, there is nothing summery about it with trough after trough after trough after trough and temps on the cool side...shockingly poor for the height of summer and nothing even for someone like me who tries to look on the bright side. 

Edited June 29, 2016 by Frosty.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

GFS 06z was vile i see no sign of anything we can call summer right out into middle of July, temps below par, even that nice ridge of HP in the south has eroded away as the azores is pushed farther south again.  I think we all know why? Because theres an el-nino and la-nina in the house.  

Maybe if people didn't believe everything they read in newspapers and think its the 100% gospel truth such as their "90 days heatwave" forecasts then expectations for a decent summer wont be so fuelled so much. I give up.

[Man With Beard]

Here's something positive - a few GEFS members now developing something a little better for the end of next week, with a small ridge pushing in. A crumb? Here's one of a few examples

 

 

Edited June 29, 2016 by Man With Beard

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, 40*C said:

GFS 06z was vile i see no sign of anything we can call summer right out into middle of July, temps below par, even that nice ridge of HP in the south has eroded away as the azores is pushed farther south again.  I think we all know why? Because theres an el-nino and la-nina in the house.  

Maybe if people didn't believe everything they read in newspapers and think its the 100% gospel truth such as their "90 days heatwave" forecasts then expectations for a decent summer wont be so fuelled so much. I give up.

I see no sign of reaching 40c this summer, 20c looks difficult enough