Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Airedalejoe]

23 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I see no sign of reaching 40c this summer, 20c looks difficult enough

Agree so far, if the models pan out as they currently show, 16-18C temps in yet another poor summer.

Day's of sunshine and higher than average temps seem almost impossible to get here nowadays.

[Frosty.]

36 minutes ago, Airedalejoe said:

Agree so far, if the models pan out as they currently show, 16-18C temps in yet another poor summer.

Day's of sunshine and higher than average temps seem almost impossible to get here nowadays.

Yes it's a poor summer so far, even the BBC forecasters are saying it and the models today look worse than yesterday with the GEFS 6z mean not indicating the Azores high will build in by mid July even, today it looks flat zonal in that range and I'm starting to worry about this summer even though we are only 33 percent into it. 

[Frosty.]

As I said, mid / longer range there is no sign of the Azores high leaving home, if anything it gets worse towards the end on the GEFS 6z mean. Of course this doesn't mean we won't see a pattern change later in July.

[Matthew.]

Yes the GFS 12z beginning to emerge and no signs of the year of the ladybug. Westerly start for July

[Frosty.]

No real improvement from the Gfs 12z next week with the powerful jetstream much further south than it should be. Max temps barely reaching average in the south with 20-21c at best, cooler further n / nw. It looks changeable next week, perhaps not as unsettled as this week but it's poor for the height of summer.

[Frosty.]

Further into low res is even worse with yet more troughs and even cooler air from the north, right out to mid July with max temps of 16 / 17c .. much colder in Scotland.. really pathetic.

[Frosty.]

Better news from the Ecm 12z which shows high pressure ridging into the south of the uk later next week, becoming warmer and more settled, at least for the south of the BI..much better than the gfs.

Edited June 29, 2016 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Here's some more potential for warm or very warm anticyclonic weather towards mid July from the GEFS 12z perturbations, there are a few beauties in there too (p4)..even though the gfs op runs have been poor doesn't mean we will have to endure weeks and weeks of sub standard summer weather. The met office continue to mention a possible mid July pattern change, indeed they seem to be increasing in confidence of that occurring and at least I found some eye candy for those of us who are willing a big improvement in summer 2016! :- )

[damianslaw]

An all too familiar pattern looks set to dominate for the foreseeable, one we've become accustomed too in the main over many a recent summer i.e. the broad westerly with a southerly tracking jet, its been the dominant synoptic since summer 2006 bar the odd blip such as July 2013 and 2014 and the odd plume/cyclonic spell.

Such patterns are to difficult to get of as the summer wears on, but it is still very early days for Summer 2016. ECM holds some hope, with the azores high becoming a key player before mid month ridging in from the SW, but its a long way off,and the jet is forecast to have quite a bit of oomph to it, and we may be chasing temporary 1 day ridge events, which would be preety dire.

Edited June 29, 2016 by damianslaw

[knocker]

All the anomalies tonight see no significant change in the next 14 days. The theme is low pressure over the pole with trough south to the NW/N of the UK with the Azores HP down to the south west. Ergo an upper flow from the westerly quadrant is maintained throughout So remaining unsettled with the NW being favoured with the worst of the periods of wind and rain and temps generally a little below average. There is no signal for any movement of the Azores HP, if anything the trough becomes a tad more influential on the ecm by the end.

 

Edited June 29, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

23 minutes ago, knocker said:

 There is no signal for any movement of the Azores HP, if anything the trough becomes a tad more influential on the ecm by the end.

No signal so far that we can see on our free public domain models but of course we can't see what the met office are seeing for several days now which is a potential mid July pattern change, I'm sure they must be looking at something better than we are..here's hoping!

[summer blizzard]

Oh dear. These runs lack the channel low type floods of 07/12 but they are some of the worst summer runs i have seen.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS again continues to show a very mobile unsettled Westerly flow off the Atlantic into Wk2, With fronts being driven directly towards us aided by a strong Jet stream sitting over the UK.

[Polar Maritime]

A chilly weekend coming up with the chance of frost for the Highland Glens & maybe even a dusting of snow for the highest summits.

Edited June 30, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[bluearmy]

Looks like no escape from the lw trough in broad terms.  Exeters 30 dayer for mid July remains intriguing. It has moved on from a potential better spell in the south to something more defined and looks like it reflects the trough backing west into the Atlantic.

the mean ECM 46 day run wasn't hinting at much so must be some clustering that has agreement from their own 30 day modelling. 

would be nice to see some summer weather 2016!

[knocker]

The GEFS 10-15 this morning and is reinvigorating the trough, something that the EPS hinted at last night

 

[mb018538]

ECM this morning shows a very slack pressure pattern from day 5-9, with the UK under a broad col. Not quite as unsettled, but disappointing temperatures for the middle of summer, that's for sure. Absolutely zero signs of anything warm and settled on the horizon at the moment.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Absolutely zero signs of anything warm and settled on the horizon at the moment.

Agreed, there is currently a lack of support for the Azores high to build in by mid July according to the GEFS 00z mean. I'm not giving up on summer 2016 but I was expecting much better than what we have been served up so far, it's a sub standard summer...so far!

[knocker]

The ecm anomalies are not good news.The ext EPS is also reinvigorating the trough in the 10-15 period and keeping temps below average.

[Man With Beard]

So where are we this morning - well, I can't disagree with most posters above, the prospects are not particularly good for beach weather in the next 10 days, and maybe even up to 15 days.

But we are also not in write-off territory either - and it is important to stress that. The pressure pattern is such that openings for the Azores high are available in the D8-D12. Pressure remains strong over southern Europe. Main troughing stays essentially to our north. The Atlantic train is not the keenest I've ever. The following ensemble member, fairly typical of current output, demonstrates this picture:

There's clearly a possibility that a ridge could sneak in to the UK. The jet is not so ferocious to make it impossible. There are lows in the Atlantic, but they aren't spitting at us on most GEFS members. And there aren't significantly low heights to the NE or E to hinder a ridge pushing in. 

It's for these reasons that the ECM op is consistently trying to throw a ridge towards us between D8 and D10. On the GEFS, I'd say 7 members are not too bad by D10 for the very same reasons.

Don't get me wrong, it ain't great, but neither is it past the point of no return. A very decent weekend for 9/10 July is still a possibility, particularly for the south. 

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

The ecm anomalies are not good news.The ext EPS is also reinvigorating the trough in the 10-15 period and keeping temps below average.

This chart is enough to make a full-grown man cry. Hopefully its a one-off.

Edited June 30, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Frosty.]

24 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

This chart is enough to make a full-grown man cry. Hopefully its a one-off.

If you are going to cry, you need the appropriate smiley

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op shows a ridge building across the south for a time next week with drier, sunnier and warmer weather and the GEFS 6z perturbations show some warm and anticyclonic outcomes, hopefully they will increase on future runs so the mean improves for the mid July period...if there is good news, i will show it!

[Frosty.]

I may get my wish, although the Gefs mean out to mid July shows no improvement yet. The experts are still mentioning a change to warmer more summery weather by the latter part of July, it's been shunted back a little but it's still there so hopefully the mean charts will start to show a more sw / ne orientated jet with the Azores high gradually building towards the uk in the not too distant future. At least the MO are offering hope that this summer, which is on hold at the moment, will eventually deliver what most of us want to see.

[Summer Sun]

The best hope we have so far from something settled comes from GEM