Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Frosty.]

19 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

 So its hard to pin the tail on the Donkey so to speak..

The models look  autumnal again today, it's hard to pin down the reason why it's so rubbish and why the uk seems incapable of having decent seasonal weather these days!

[Summer Sun]

As bad as the models are at the moment UKMO does offer the chance of some longer, drier spells for most of England and Wales as we move through next week whilst temps won't be spectacular we could squeeze 24c in any longer spells of sunshine in the south and SE

[B87]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

As bad as the models are at the moment UKMO does offer the chance of some longer, drier spells for most of England and Wales as we move through next week whilst temps won't be spectacular we could squeeze 24c in any longer spells of sunshine in the south and SE

You know the summer is awful when people are rejoicing that a run shows normal summer temperatures!  I bet this July will follow June as the cloudiest on record though!

[terrier]

Well the output once again for the majority of the U.K. Is once again a cool unsettled picture from both the gfs and ecm. The ukmo looks a little more settled especially further south. But as I write this I'm sat in 34c on Benidorm seafront. Hopefully I can bring some of this back in 3 weeks time. 

[William of Walworth]

On 30/06/2016 at 11:19, Man With Beard said:

So where are we this morning - well, I can't disagree with most posters above, the prospects are not particularly good for beach weather in the next 10 days, and maybe even up to 15 days.

But we are also not in write-off territory either - and it is important to stress that. The pressure pattern is such that openings for the Azores high are available in the D8-D12. Pressure remains strong over southern Europe. Main troughing stays essentially to our north. The Atlantic train is not the keenest I've ever. The following ensemble member, fairly typical of current output, demonstrates this picture:

There's clearly a possibility that a ridge could sneak in to the UK. The jet is not so ferocious to make it impossible. There are lows in the Atlantic, but they aren't spitting at us on most GEFS members. And there aren't significantly low heights to the NE or E to hinder a ridge pushing in. 

It's for these reasons that the ECM op is consistently trying to throw a ridge towards us between D8 and D10. On the GEFS, I'd say 7 members are not too bad by D10 for the very same reasons.

Don't get me wrong, it ain't great, but neither is it past the point of no return. A very decent weekend for 9/10 July is still a possibility, particularly for the south. 

The above was posted by Man weith Beard yesterday (Thursday 30th) at 11:29 am, but most model analysis since on this thread has been a fair bit more unsettled-trending for the next week to 10 days, at least.

Is his general thought though, that we are not yet in writeoff territory, not hold any valildity any more? To my mind there's still room for some of the detail and poisitioning to change. I wouldn't yet completely write off the weekend of Saturday 9th before we've even entered that of Saturday 2nd July.

Agreed plenty of recent output is showing low pressure domionance, but still.

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, terrier said:

 But as I write this I'm sat in 34c on Benidorm seafront. Hopefully I can bring some of this back in 3 weeks time. 

34c is too hot, 25c would do nicely...and stop gloating!

[knocker]

5 hours ago, William of Walworth said:

The above was posted by Man weith Beard yesterday (Thursday 30th) at 11:29 am, but most model analysis since on this thread has been a fair bit more unsettled-trending for the next week to 10 days, at least.

Is his general thought though, that we are not yet in writeoff territory, not hold any valildity any more? To my mind there's still room for some of the detail and poisitioning to change. I wouldn't yet completely write off the weekend of Saturday 9th before we've even entered that of Saturday 2nd July.

Agreed plenty of recent output is showing low pressure domionance, but still.

I don't know about write off but any supposition about detail nine days down the line has to be subject to the usual caveats. Given that there is good agreement between all three anomalies the percentage play for that weekend remains unsettled but of course within this mobile set up there is room for transitional developments within the overall pattern. Ergo you could get a brief drier interval towards the south of Britain but I wouldn't bet the bank on it.

 

Edited July 1, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

This is some of the worst output I have ever seen for the height of summer with the jetstream much further south and firing Atlantic lows at the uk almost non stop. Temperatures below average, even cold at times in scotland and a risk of ground frosts. This is a really shocking Gfs 6z, no sign of summer and I feel sorry for anyone having a holiday in the uk during the next 2/3 weeks.

[Frosty.]

Bad news I'm afraid, the GEFS 6z mean looks flat zonal beyond mid July with no hint that the Azores high will build in and even worse than that, the met office signal for a mid / late July pattern change to warmer and more settled has disappeared. If you want heat, probably best to fly well away from the UK this month! 

[Matthew.]

On 30 June 2016 at 13:04, Frosty. said:

 

2 hours ago, knocker said:

 

 

Not a chart to frame thats for sure.

[markyo]

Really starting to think it may be mid August at earliest before we see the heat so many want,by then it'll be a tad late. My forecast of max temp remaining that of  the start of june may well prove right,which is not good for so many! 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Bad news I'm afraid, the GEFS 6z mean looks flat zonal beyond mid July with no hint that the Azores high will build in and even worse than that, the met office signal for a mid / late July pattern change to warmer and more settled has disappeared. If you want heat, probably best to fly well away from the UK this month! 

I'm giving up on summer 2016, don't worry there'll be another one in 11 months

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, 40*C said:

I'm giving up on summer 2016, don't worry there'll be another one in 11 months

The thing is, I hate delivering bad news because nobody wants to read negative comments but that's the current situation sadly.

[johnholmes]

Reading some comments in here with 2/3 official summer still to go is a bit similar to the winter version!

12 months ago the first 8 days of July had 22C or more, 34.4C my record on the 1st. Did it ensure a good end to the summer=No so a poor start does it mean the rest will be poor=No.

Most models go no further than T+360 hours or so, who knows beyond that. The long range products are just as liable to be wide of the mark as the nearer scale so no need 'yet' to be so downhearted. Anyway this is the British Isles, with umpteen thousand miles of water to our west, and guess what, it is often the direction our weather comes from. Our position generally ensures we have no hurricanes or Siberian temperatures, the climate is classified as temperate =

Temperate

This classification covers a range of climates from near-Mediterranean climates and humid, sub-tropical zones to maritime climates influenced by the oceans - like ours in the UK. The former are mostly found on the western side of continents at 30-45° latitude. Summers can be either hot or warm, but they are always markedly drier than other times of the year. Humid, subtropical climates tend to be in the middle or on the eastern side of continents at 25-45° latitude. Summers here are humid with plenty of rain, but winters are usually dry. Some temperate climates have wet and dry seasons while others have no marked dry season at all. But all have four distinct seasons.

[knocker]

After briefly flirting with a ridge mid week the GFS wings a depression in on Thursday.

[Frosty.]

If anything, the ukmo 12z is better than the 00z with pressure that bit higher across the south of the UK in particular next week so if this was to verify, it would be a drier and warmer week further south with more sunshine, lighter winds and temps comfortably into the low 20's celsius, a touch higher in favoured spots.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is much better than the 6z in the medium to longer range, it's less trough dominated to the northwest and the jet is better aligned, more towards wsw / ene with the azores high pressure ridging to the southwest that bit closer to the uk so it would mean a relatively warmer outlook with more in the way of dry and fine weather, especially further south, not a settled outlook but certainly more summer like than the unsettled and cooler looking 6z mean...compare them and you will see what I mean, I posted the 6z mean earlier.

Edited July 1, 2016 by Frosty.

[phil nw.]

It's not looking great is it folks?

Still no sign of any prolonged warm and sunny conditions.With the UK in the firing line of the Atlantic jet any drier interludes will be from any brief ridging of the Azores high before the next frontal rain or showers moves in from the Atlantic.

A snapshot from the 12z GFS at day 4 around early afternoon just shows how expected maximum readings are depressed across N.Europe-not just the UK.Courtesy of that persistent jet path.

 

which looks typical for much of next week.Yes we are a Temperate climate being in a mid-latitude Oceanic location as John H alluded too but we really are seeing the cooler side of this at the moment.

Summer heat very much south of the Alps in the coming week or so.

Edited July 1, 2016 by phil nw.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows a ridge of high pressure building across the south next week and it becomes warmer too with temps into the low 20's c but nearer 24/25c in parts of the s /se with +10 T850 uppers flooding across southern areas. It's not a settled outlook next week, there would be some heavy and thundery showers post ridge but compared to this week it's a significant improvement, at least further south.

Edited July 1, 2016 by Frosty.

[Matthew.]

The ECM 12z has really underlined the HP to the North as brought out earlier. Is this unusual? It's like a huge block over the pole east and west. The polar bears will be sunbathing if HP there means sunshine

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

The ECM 12z has really underlined the HP to the North as brought out earlier. Is this unusual? It's like a huge block over the pole east and west. The polar bears will be sunbathing if HP there means sunshine

Good news for us is its warmer next week from the Ecm 12z, would be nice to see mid 20s c again in the south.

[Matthew.]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Good news for us is its warmer next week from the Ecm 12z, would be nice to see mid 20s c again in the south.

Yes Frosty them Lows squeezed over iceland

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Yes Frosty them Lows squeezed over iceland

 

16 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

 

Yes Matthew, I'm encouraged by the Ecm 12z and especially the ukmo, next week doesn't look as cool or as unsettled, indeed it looks warm further south with some fine spells.

[knocker]

The ecm also unsettled next week but binging the depression in a little earlier than the GFS on Weds. Temps around average perhaps a little below.

Edited July 1, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

24 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm also unsettled next week but binging the depression in a little earlier than the GFS on Weds. Temps around average perhaps a little below.

Temps would actually be a little above average for a time next week if the ecm is right with low to mid 20s c in the south and more settled in the south for a few days, certainly warmer than this week anyways!