Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[Speedway Slider]

Looks like Ipswich is gonna get a pasting as well....

[Milocation]

8 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

Looks like Ipswich is gonna get a pasting as well....

then colchester

[Milocation]

LIGHTNING AND THUNDER, BOTH CLOSE, ITS HERE

[Captain Shortwave]

In Gt Yarmouth and I can confirm a lot of thunder and lightning here now as well as some heavy rain.

[knocker]

Movement of the convective line?

[essex coast matt]

Thunder heard here in clacton,very heavy rain.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Nothing here, just wet and windy. any action has as usual headed away from Norfolk. 

[William Grimsley]

Surprised how much lightning was detected from that band and it's still heading west!

[stainesbloke]

I did get quite excited by the very unusual synoptic situation last night, hoping it might lead to a decent thundery episode. No real surprise to see it has fizzled out dramatically with just areas of heavy rain. The UK really does have a dreadful climate sometimes, sucking the life out of anything interesting. Saying that, the clearer air moving towards us from the E will warm up quickly so might pep things up later. Not going to hold my breath...!

Edited May 31, 2016 by stainesbloke

[Summer Sun]

50.2mm - 2inches of rain so far in Wattisham, Suffolk

[Delka]

16.2mm so far this morning in Hunstanton, Norfolk. Very dark under all this cloud, and also very windy!

EDIT: The light of the computer is actually making the indoors alot lighter then outside, where all cars passing are using lights.

Edited May 31, 2016 by Delka

[Norfolk Sheep]

Not so much as a distant rumble here but 32mm rain has bumped my May total to 38mm. 

[weather09]

Called that one wrong regarding lightning frequency. Guess I underestimated strength of moisture 'plume' aloft to produce deep convection.  06z analysis shows storms having occurred close to cold front/triple point (region of greatest low-level lift):

[Mapantz]

Lots of stations recording between 30 and 40mm this morning, a number of them over 50mm as well.

12hr accumulations:

[William Grimsley]

Not sure if anyone else agrees, but looks like the rain coming in from the east may turn thundery again as it moves westward through SW England due to it turning more showery and has the aid of surface heating?

[Speedway Slider]

Talk of a plume event for this weekend?

Yes/No/Maybe?

[StormChaseUK]

Monday-Wednesday next week look OK if it holds. 

[Delka]

Look to the Northern End of this rain coming through, its starting to rapidly get heavier here out of no where, whats the chance of thunder/lightning?

[William Grimsley]

Showers developing ahead of the band of rain with embedded Altocumulus Castellanus cloud visible to the east.

[stainesbloke]

Just heavy rain here for the last couple of hours, the temperature is actually dropping, now just 11C which is disgusting at midday for the end of May. Some clearance pushing into the far E soon, might spark something off later. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Finger crossed for later but I wouldn't hang a hat on it

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Holland can breed a storm that spits out 350+ strikes per minute, whilst we produce a few rogue sparks! Says it all. Holland really do get their fair share of the good stuff, it's like a dumping ground for storms that place. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

5 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Holland can breed a storm that spits out 350+ strikes per minute, whilst we produce a few rogue sparks! Says it all. Holland really do get their fair share of the good stuff, it's like a dumping ground for storms that place. 

Yup - unfortunately having sea all around us and being a not particularly large landmass in the first place we're limited to decent convective events only when the situation is just right - ie. Winds not blowing everything off the edge into the sea and being at the right angle to bring us the right sort of air at the right temperature. I'm realising all of this now - I think only in the summer months do us mid-land areas get a fair whack.

It really doesn't matter how much potential Europe provides, the sea being all around us just eats up spring and early summer storms so they can only limp so far inland before giving up and just becoming rain or grey mess.

At least things are gonna start hotting up from now onwards...

[weather09]

Think too much focus is given on how unfavourable the relatively cool waters surrounding the UK can be and not the actual setup we're situated under.  Bear in mind the lightning activity that occurred this morning was from instability rooted above the boundary layer, so the SSTs were irrelevant. But still matter to some... 

If there is good instability over/surrounding the UK, then storms will occur over land and water (assuming forcing is there). Simple. Initial surface-based storms travelling over water can take a hit at this time of the year, given the lag in rise of SSTs in relation to landmass, but if the environment is like it was over the continent yesterday, then no sea water is going to have a negative effect on storms developing.  The problem is down to the setup, and the right conditions a lot of the time just missing our shores.  And that's due to not having that favourable upper 500mb pattern - i.e. strong amplified ridge just to our east/trough approaching from west. The 500mb profile dictating the synoptic setup at the surface.

Get the right setup and we can get severe storms. The problem is in getting the setup.  But the surrounding waters are quite irrelevant most of the time. 

Edited May 31, 2016 by weather09

[William Grimsley]

@weather09, exactly. For example, in June, July, August and September 2014 we had several setups over SW England that enabled thunderstorms to develop over the English Channel without dying as they reached land. We just need more of these setups.