Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[Speedway Slider]

Any chance that this tiny little cell will make it to the UK shore?

[William Grimsley]

1 hour ago, Speedway Slider said:

The North sea seems to be capable today of spawning west bound cells at the moment, will these cells only be of the elevated flavour?

Yes, they will be elevated.

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, Severe Blizzard said:

July 1968 was a good month for thunderstorms in the south, the best events being the 10th~11th and 13th~14th with rainfalls >25 mm on each of these occasions (Fleet, Hants). S.E. did not fare well on the 1st with the very hot day and thunderstorms over the west country moving N.E. and missed out on the large hail associated with these storms.

Summer 1968 saw much N.E.ly and E.ly type weather in the south and culminated in the thunderstorms and torrential rain from an almost stationary front on 14th~16th September. Guildford had 105 mm over these 3 days with major flooding. 

10th-11th July 1968 is quite famous in Bristol for the widespread floods that affected the city. Huge thunderstorms were the cause with hours of torrential rain.

[Eskimo]

Anyone know why there's a warning still for the Humber and Lincolnshire?

[William Grimsley]

It's raining! 

[Mapantz]

16 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Anyone know why there's a warning still for the Humber and Lincolnshire?

Probably down to the constant feed of showers, it soon adds up!

18 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

It's raining! 

lol - I ended up with 9.6mm, I wasn't expecting that much here.

[Carl46Wrexham]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm guessing that that was when we had the 'red rain' (33C at Kew?). Your are right, we in MK missed most of the action. It must have been the 13th-14th when we had one house struck twice during one storm, after a cloudy, dreich sports day...Friday night? I'm glad someone-else can remember!

Aye so can I. The 1st-2nd July thunderstorms anyway. One after another. Someone at Shrewsbury counted 9 separate thunderstorms then gave up! Red rain, huge (by UK standards) hail, and surreal daytime darkness. That and the electricity substation a couple of hundred yards from our house taking a direct hit. You don't forget things like that.

Clouds were estimated to be 5-7 miles high.

Edited May 31, 2016 by Carl46Wrexham

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

So can anyone shed any further light on the rumours of a plume at the weekend?

(I like to call them 'plume'ors - lol)

[Milocation]

9 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

So can anyone shed any further light on the rumours of a plume at the weekend?

(I like to call them 'plume'ors - lol)

William seems to think that it will be worth while, he posted a status update about it

Edited June 1, 2016 by LimoPreacherman

[MattTarrant]

9 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

So can anyone shed any further light on the rumours of a plume at the weekend?

(I like to call them 'plume'ors - lol)

According to the Met office there is a chance of increasingly unsettled weather moving up from the south at the start of next week.It will be humid with the chance of showers or thunderstorms and it could become very warm in the south and West.

[Andy Bown]

Quite amazing sometimes to realise how convective weather produces such varying rainfall amounts! I read of places receiving 50mm plus yesterday, some parts of North Wiltshire had nearly that much in one day a few weeks ago, torrential storms gave 25mm plus over the Mendips last Friday evening, yet IMBY I have recorded only 56.5mm in nearly 7 weeks.

[Delka]

5 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Quite amazing sometimes to realise how convective weather produces such varying rainfall amounts! I read of places receiving 50mm plus yesterday, some parts of North Wiltshire had nearly that much in one day a few weeks ago, torrential storms gave 25mm plus over the Mendips last Friday evening, yet IMBY I have recorded only 56.5mm in nearly 7 weeks.

Had that in 2 weeks here, very wet and miserable.. Even though any rain before yesterday was showery

[William Grimsley]

Yes, there's the potential of a Spanish Plume next week but I'm just going to just wait and see, my excitement for thunderstorms is dropping by the day...

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

37 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Yes, there's the potential of a Spanish Plume next week but I'm just going to just wait and see, my excitement for thunderstorms is dropping by the day...

Will, it's only the beginning of June! Still the rest of it, July and August to go yet too. 

I seem to remember June 2005 at the beginning saw places have a grass frost, then the 2nd half of the month, things went out with a colossal bang. 

Edited June 1, 2016 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Supacell]

36 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Yes, there's the potential of a Spanish Plume next week but I'm just going to just wait and see, my excitement for thunderstorms is dropping by the day...

Even as a chaser there have been years whereby I have seen nothing by this point in the year. The best months for storms are definitely June, July and August. I normally take anything outside of these months as a bonus.

A way off yet but yes there is looking like a,number of convective elements next week, starting as early as the weekend for some.

[cheese]

7 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Even as a chaser there have been years whereby I have seen nothing by this point in the year. The best months for storms are definitely June, July and August. I normally take anything outside of these months as a bonus.

A way off yet but yes there is looking like a,number of convective elements next week, starting as early as the weekend for some.

Yup. It's not unusual to go this far without a storm - certainly no storms here this year and the last time I saw lightning was in March. Best storms I recall tend to occur in the June-Aug period.

[MP-R]

58 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Yes, there's the potential of a Spanish Plume next week but I'm just going to just wait and see, my excitement for thunderstorms is dropping by the day...

Keep the faith mate - tis no different from expecting snow in early December. If we can get the right synoptics, plumes will probably pack even more of a punch in August/September than the first half of summer aided by the higher SSTs. You're also in a better location for all-year-around thunder. Lots to look forward to!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Absolutely coming down in torrents here. No thunder does not do this any justice. Roads are becoming rivers! 

[William Grimsley]

2 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Absolutely coming down in torrents here. No thunder does not do this any justice. Roads are becoming rivers! 

Hmm, they're coming this way but most likely will completely die out.

@East_England_Stormchaser91, @Supacell and @MP-R, I suppose there is a lot to potentially look forward to especially after recent times but after being in the wrong place at the wrong time twice and with nothing siginificant overhead, you do begin to wonder... Anyway, lets keep our head up high and see what happens over the coming weeks!

I'd probably say Sunday is my next bet and if there's a risk I will be going wherever because this time I'll make sure I get into something!

Edited June 1, 2016 by William Grimsley

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Netherlands yet again seeing a cracker with nearly 200 strikes per minute... It ain't fair!! 

[dwalton]

Looking good for storm potential in the next month or so. More potential for more events unlike recent years. 

[William Grimsley]

9 minutes ago, dwalton said:

Looking good for storm potential in the next month or so. More potential for more events unlike recent years. 

Lets just hope they cross over me which HAS happened in recent years but not very recently...

[weather09]

Bit of an odd outlook this weekend with wave frontal boundary currently over UK oscillating east and west, before warm front pushes back to the west of the UK Saturday, introducing moister air mass at the surface. At the moment, looks like an increasing possibility of heavy showers/thunderstorms for some parts during the period as winds become lighter and veer to E/SE, resulting in warmer temps and moisture building inland within warm sector which generates decent instability, as per recent model outputs. 

Stagnant flow aloft with weak ridge precludes organised/severe convective weather, however. Though moist air mass and slack profile, and therefore slow storm motion, would pose a risk of high spot rainfall rates.  Bit far out so considerable changes ahead, but something to look at I guess.

Edited June 1, 2016 by weather09

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, William Grimsley said:

Lets just hope they cross over me which HAS happened in recent years but not very recently...

 And me :-(  I don't think I can cope with another epic fail like the seventh  when a massive storm moved within 30 miles of me and completely died out to  Little more than drizzle. It was devastating... Well I think I may take it too seriously. I was very unlucky last year as well. Good luck to you, I hope we both get in on the action. 

[William Grimsley]

35 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 And me :-(  I don't think I can cope with another epic fail like the seventh  when a massive storm moved within 30 miles of me and completely died out to  Little more than drizzle. It was devastating... Well I think I may take it too seriously. I was very unlucky last year as well. Good luck to you, I hope we both get in on the action. 

Know exactly what it feels like, you mustn't let it get to you, but then trying to hope continually for something isn't a good idea either, just be open but that's easier to say than do.