Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

And........

she gives us a nice smile at the end of the run

Yes, The vortex is about to go pop again.

[lorenzo]

'Loaded' is the key word in original post - that swathe of purple stuff is at least on our side of the hemisphere for once in a time... if a trans siberian train chooses to leave the station and this pattern repeats then at some point down the line ( no pun intended) a decent cold shot is in effect. 

Edited October 30, 2016 by lorenzo

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, snowy weather said:

(Very much a novice here) but those uppers dont look too cold for the uk?

 see how closer the cold is getting, a tiny slither of -16 now over Scandinavia, all it needs is a trigger to bring it this way,

[Spah1]

2 minutes ago, snowy weather said:

(Very much a novice here) but those uppers dont look too cold for the uk?

Look North East. 

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, The vortex is about to go pop again.

Lol

how can it go pop without inflating

what i do like is the +ve hieghts over north America/Canada

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=12&carte=1

all good viewing though eh.

[snowy weather]

Thanks for the reply everyone, I understand. Exciting times!!!

[Nouska]

36 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Won't often post a chart from the ridiculous realms of FI for any kind of narrative guidance.

However.

Just look at where the cold is loaded... not outwith the realms of impossibility for things to go right for once in what 5 years...

 

 

If you have time have a look back through the archived charts (set for tenth November) - very rare pattern to have so little cold pooling in the western hemisphere.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=10&month=11&hour=12&map=5&mode=1&type=ncep&region=

You'll see a few, have a look at the November CET figures for some of the years.

[knocker]

Today

Early fog in England will clear and leave a quite mild and sunny day for all bar Scotland. The latter will have some rain in the north which later in the day will track SE. Overnight the cold front will continue on it's travels and this signals the end of this period of weather as much colder air will be introduced over Britain in the northerly behind the front with max temps down to single digits.

The GFS this morning.

The aforementioned northerly quickly gives way to a brief ridge before the expected upper low tracks SE on Friday, initially over Ireland  but then it phases in with the cut off upper low to the south west and the trough to the east and is centred over north west France by 00z Sunday in this complex trough area. The surface development is obviously not dissimilar with low pressure and associated fronts tracking SE Friday and Saturday  bringing rain and then showers in the resulting unstable air stream until midnight Sunday when the LP is centred NW France to Denmark and bringing  a strong NE/E wind to Britain  So quite unpleasant with plenty of rain around and snow on the high ground in the north. In general the temps will be below average and if that easterly wind materialises, quite cold.

From here the positively tilted rough moves slowly south and deconstructs leaving, once again, a cut off upper low to the SW and, also once again, HP ridges in from the south west. Simultaneously the next troughs from the Canadian factory, augmented on occasion by some energy nipping up the eastern seaboard. are poised to the north west. To be continued.

Edited October 31, 2016 by knocker

[pip22]

The Latest GFS says it bringing back the default westerly pattern for next week.

 

Wind, Rain and Mild weather expected if this verifies.

[bluearmy]

Still intrigued by what is going to happen in the n Pacific with those two ex trop storms

If the verify and become entrained in the aleutian/east Siberian lows they should serve to amplify the trop pattern in the n Pacific and into Alaska which should keep the arctic blocking which is deflecting the Atlantic jet on nw/se axis maintaining the sceuro upper trough. The combination of the Siberian/arctic block and the s Russian ridge which looks almost semi permanent will mean the Atlantic pfj has nowhere to go but to our se. The behaviour of the Azores high will dictate if the we can go the cold side of the pfj more for than just transient episodes.

Three or four weeks down the line and this would really be exciting - I can wait for the patterns to develop and in the meantime if it all falls apart, c'est la vie!

there are some crazily wintry options that could come out of all this! That might make any disappointment difficult but as I always say, at least we look to have a ticket for the raffle !!

[jvenge]

5 minutes ago, pip22 said:

The Latest GFS says it bringing back the default westerly pattern for next week.

 

Wind, Rain and Mild weather expected if this verifies.

Worth pointing out that it doesn't have great support from the ensembles. Some support, but by no means a majority.

[West is Best]

This reminds me of 1985 when October began with a 30C day and we went from there into a bitterly cold November with a CET of 4.1C, one of the coldest on record which included a mild first week. The predominantly easterly month then heralded a similar winter which was long and raw. February 1986 was exceptionally cold although largely dry.

Why get historical in a model thread? Because we should look for signs like cold pooling and blocking. 1947 was the exception that proves the rule: cold winters tend to get going early. The signs this year are certainly there. What we may be looking for is the second re-load next weekend. If that north-easterly digs in, with the Atlantic block rebuilding then we could enter a sustained period of cold.

In terms of the long game we're also looking for the ground to start cooling off: some early hard frosts will help that process.

Interesting 'eh?!

[knocker]

It pays to be n the southern flank of the positively tilted upper trough

Edited October 31, 2016 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Just current Model Output please in here, There is the Winter Hopes/Thoughts thread open for historic musings and the likes, Thanks.

[knocker]

The ecm is not hugely different to the GFs but they could well turn out to be quite important. All okay on Friday as the low tracks SE over Ireland and phases in a la GFS but the configuration of the resulting trough is subtlety different and thus is the surface analysis resulting in colder air at the beginning of next week than the GFS is showing with temps a fair bit below average.

Thereafter the trough moves away SE  ridging in mid Atlantic relaxes and the trough conduit to the Canadian vortex is set in motion. Interesting stuff.

 

Edited October 31, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z shows increasingly cold weather spreading south during the weekend and into the start of next week. Nice

Chin up coldies, winter is still a month away

Edited October 31, 2016 by Frosty.

[cheshire snow]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

The  Ecm 00z shows increasingly cold weather spreading south during the weekend and into the start of next week. Nice

Chin up coldies, winter is still a month away

Look how close those -8 uppers are from the East coast another slight nudge westward and i would not be surprised to see snow showers

Falling to increasingly low levels in the NE,exciting times if of course

All verifies.

C.S

 

 

[Ravelin]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

The ecm is not hugely different to the GFs but they could well turn out to be quite important. All okay on Friday as the low tracks SE over Ireland and phases in a la GFS but the configuration of the resulting trough is subtlety different and thus is the surface analysis resulting in colder air at the beginning of next week than the GFS is showing with temps a fair bit below average.

Thereafter the trough moves away SE  ridging in mid Atlantic relaxes and the trough conduit to the Canadian vortex is set in motion. Interesting stuff.

As you say, my own quick comparison of the 0Z output of the 'major' models and up to t120 (Saturday) they all look fairly similar. After that they start diverging and unsurprisingly by t240 they are that far apart it's not worth contemplating that one is any more likely to be correct than another.

t120 (ECM, UKMO, GFS, GEM)

  

t240 (ECM, GFS, GEM)

Interestingly, there's still no real sign of an organised polar vortex even by 10th Nov, a third of the way through November. Still pockets of heights showing in the polar regions.

Edited October 31, 2016 by Ravelin

[Summer Sun]

The 1st 2 days of next week remain chilly with the south not making double figures

It's only really Wednesday for the north and Thursday for the south temps just get into double figures

Beyond this, we then get northwesterly winds for a day or so then milder Atlantic air before another spell of colder air and so on

[SMU]

morning all

not a huge amount of change overnight - however I believe the models are still being overly progressive with the easterly direction of that low to our north at 168

slider is still my thoughts --

no sign of any westerly zonal weather in the outputs is still a great sign....

[The Northern Ramper]

It definitely smells like something is afoot as we head towards winter 16/17, model watching is interesting early this year.

 

Great post by gp in the strat thread by the way.

[Frosty.]

Well I don't see any downgrades in the GEFS mean since yesterday, the 00z shows the flow generally north of west with a nw / se aligned jet with regular polar maritime influence and occasionally sharper with more of an Arctic flow and the coming weekend and start of next week look increasingly cold from the n / ne as arctic air is drawn south across the uk. I see wintry potential  in the next few weeks, especially in the north and on high ground.

Edited October 31, 2016 by Frosty.

[Newberryone]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

The 1st 2 days of next week remain chilly with the south not making double figures

It's only really Wednesday for the north and Thursday for the south temps just get into double figures

Beyond this, we then get northwesterly winds for a day or so then milder Atlantic air before another spell of colder air and so on

Hopefully these charts which clearly point to just occasional pm incursions won't be the story of winter 16/17. Bit early I admit to be jumping on the emotional rollercoaster but when compared to what was on offer even as recently as yesterday I can't help but feel somewhat disappointed. Even the low numbers in the forum this morning go some way in reflecting this opinion. Oh dear!!

[Scandinavian High.]

Turning much colder as we go through the week..

Edited October 31, 2016 by abbie123

[weirpig]

Difference again at 144  compared to the last run  with so much difference at a short term range  impossible to know what the pattern will be like going forward