Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[winterof79]

GFS starts with the top image and ends with the bottom.What's not to like?

Northern hemispheric profile looks better later in the run

 

 

 

 

Edited November 4, 2016 by winterof79

[knocker]

The ecm does give more prominence to the Azores HP towards the end of the run and forces the jet and the troughs further north, I suspect the answer may well turn out to be the compromise with any troughs effecting the north with the south under the HP umbrella. But as I have said repeatable, given the unpredictable volatility, at range, of the cold/warm air interactions none of this is a done deal from the middle of next week onwards. And all this weeping and wailing is disturbing Sidney.

Edited November 4, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, Vivian said:

Everything you see on the models hasn't actually occurred yet, be it warm or cold, its only predictions.

This is true, the outlook beyond the cold spell is uncertain..+ its only the 00z, there is a full day of twists and turns ahead of us.

[Dancerwithwings]

Looking back 10 Days ago the GFS had this for today

    but today    

Things change and will........The roller coaster as only just started 

 

Edited November 4, 2016 by Dancerwithwings

[Ravelin]

On 28/10/2016 at 23:49, feb1991blizzard said:

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This is true, the outlook beyond the cold spell is uncertain..+ its only the 00z, there is a full day of twists and turns ahead of us.

There's another 3 months of twists and turns ahead you mean. 

Edited November 4, 2016 by Ravelin

[Frosty.]

Absolutely Ravelin, in the meantime I'm going to enjoy the northerly chill the models are showing, nothing can stop that!

[festivalking]

37 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Or how about this folks. It's ONE model run. Everything can change again in 12 hours.  I'm waiting for that 'winters over' post next! It may well be right who knows but I'm not sure whether you guys are aware but this is what's predicted to happen for next wkend etc not what's actually happened already!!! Let's the victory dance until the actual time period has came rather than 12 hours after a completely different set of charts 

The twist will be GFS goes cold and ECM gets more mobile!

[bluearmy]

All we are doing is seeing how wide the envelope is for the trough disruption. ECM (op and para) have consistently placed it west of the uk whilst GFS/gem has it east.  UKMO not too sure because we have only seen yesterday's 12z for firm evidence. Today the euros are further east but that doesn't mean they won't revert back a bit. the envelope is moved a tad eastward this morning - that's all.  good job it's early November given the toys and the prams - just enjoy the background - that won't change for the time being.! 

[Frosty.]

I don't know if anyone has shown the Ecm 00z for this weekend and early next week so here goes, some nice shades of blue!

[Frosty.]

Just to show I'm not just a member of the snow and cold rampers association, the Ecm 00z looks quite pleasant later in the run, at least across the south of the uk as high pressure builds in from the southwest along with tropical maritime air.

Edited November 4, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

I would have thought this must influence the jet exiting N. America and thus have connotations downstream vis eastern Atlantic evolution.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

cfs v2 calling a very powerful vortex from early december into start of january.

in all honesty this been happening alot in recent years where things seem to indicated more northern blocking and possible strat warming events only for the vortex to power up and dash dreams year in year out.

todays models are awful 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

cfs v2 calling a very powerful vortex from early december into start of january.

in all honesty this been happening alot in recent years where things seem to indicated more northern blocking and possible strat warming events only for the vortex to power up and dash dreams year in year out.

todays models are awful 

Give me GloSea5 over the cfs v2 any day!

[Summer Sun]

An early season victory for GFS it would appear becoming less cold from Wednesday onwards

Edited November 4, 2016 by Summer Sun

[simshady]

Thankfully it's only November 4th. Long way to go yet.....

It's not the end, it's just the beginning,

Edited November 4, 2016 by simshady

[Met4Cast]

November 4. November 4th is the day the "winters over" posts have started. Must be some sort of record, surely?

It's disappointing that the ECM has backtracked and in a massive way too. It's even more annoying that quite a few other model ops were showing support for it too but as we know, the ECM Op didn't have complete support from it's ENS Suite. It looks like a brief, transient spell of a more mobile, Westerly regime before blocking possibly re-develops out in the Atlantic.

It was never looking like snow away from the high ground anyway and not a single model shows the PV setting up over Greenland, it's just moving around. Last third of November is likely to be when things become more interesting, and we'll have a larger cold pool in place to take advantage of it.

[weirpig]

37 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

November 4. November 4th is the day the "winters over" posts have started. Must be some sort of record, surely?

It's disappointing that the ECM has backtracked and in a massive way too. It's even more annoying that quite a few other model ops were showing support for it too but as we know, the ECM Op didn't have complete support from it's ENS Suite. It looks like a brief, transient spell of a more mobile, Westerly regime before blocking possibly re-develops out in the Atlantic.

It was never looking like snow away from the high ground anyway and not a single model shows the PV setting up over Greenland, it's just moving around. Last third of November is likely to be when things become more interesting, and we'll have a larger cold pool in place to take advantage of it.

Yep  very early this year .    However doesnt all the fun and games really start at around 120    plenty of times for the models to change.  As many of us have seen over the years models really struggle when cold blocks are in situ.   Im still not convinced this is the potential outcome.  However i am the eternal optimist  so we shall see

Edited November 4, 2016 by weirpig

[Summer Sun]

Stupid question I know but how do I get the ECM ens on the new Wetterzentral site?

[Man With Beard]

ECM mean and most GEFS members remain consistent on this, though - high pressure well west of the UK and a flow generally north of west. Milder shots will continue to be limited, and a door remains open for something colder at any time between now and say Nov 20.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Stupid question I know but how do I get the ECM ens on the new Wetterzentral site?

Press AVG button

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Press AVG button

Thanks Karl

Edited November 4, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ens also shows it turning less cold

[Paul_1978]

50 minutes ago, simshady said:

Thankfully it's only November 4th. Long way to go yet.....

It's not the end, it's just the beginning,

Exactly - do we think if there was "Model Output Discussion" back in 1978 people would be thinking the same. Probably yes - but fast forward to December that year..........not to mention the following January and February 1979.

Two key words here..... "Bigger Picture"!

[sebastiaan1973]

Do we at the charts right now this process?

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

I would have thought this must influence the jet exiting N. America and thus have connotations downstream vis eastern Atlantic evolution.

 

Is it unexpected?

i thought this was well advertised driving the American ridge and downstream trough - question for Europe is whether we see a mid Atlantic ridge and if so, does it drive the jet into the e euro trough via amplification or coldish zonality ??