Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[winterof79]

3 hours ago, Thermohaline Conveyor said:

White Christmas anyone?  Now wouldn't that be lovely! The extent of the Eurasian snowfields is certainly encouraging.

I look forward to your input this winter Thermohaline C.Nice to see a couple of very knowledgeable posters from MM

[knocker]

Blocking?

Edited November 4, 2016 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

GEFS 18Z - no fun on the pub run tonight, a couple of Scandi highs by T156 but a resounding no to heights backing west and extending the cold.

Though of course there may be some fun earlier in the week anyway

[Allseasons-Si]

Where is backtrack?,not heard of him in a while

is he tampering with the gfs comp lol

jokes aside

great chart viewing atm i must say and....it's still November,and i feel a 2009/10 esk about it,that is of my opinion of cause

looking at the gefs perbs there is quiet a few @ 144hrs going for the trough disruption over the BI,so def some interest going forward

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=144

[Allseasons-Si]

6 hours ago, PerfectStorm said:

The PV still in tatters even at the end of the run on the GFS. 

And the 18z is better with more height's into Greenland

the 18z gefs however,well what's not to like,pv over Siberia and look at those heights in NW America/Alaska,almost W/Northern hemisphere stripped of the blues/purples,nice

[A Frayed Knot]

3338 posts in here ' just read it all and Wow ' we are in for a cold spell ? how long and how bitter will it be ' Nothing like 1978 i reckon ' fingers crossed though ' On another Note Admin ' Please end this Group Page and Get another New one up ' Winter is on its way to the UK .

[mb018538]

Looks a bit flat on this mornings GFS and UKMO runs - the Atlantic not to be denied it would appear.

[knocker]

Today and the weekend

South of a line N. Wales to Lincoln cloudy with some rain clearing SE during the day with more sunshine. N. England and Ireland showery. Western Scotland periods of rain but drier in the east and all areas of the UK will be cooler than of late.

The next couple of days will see the low currently over Scotland drift slowly SE across the N. Sea to be in the Denmark area by midday Sunday. All of the UK will under a cold northerly flow with wintry showers and outbreaks of more sustained precipitation at times,, particularly along the east coast. Quite unpleasant.

So what is the GFS saying this morning?

Wednesday sees the weekend upper low further away to the SE but a new are of extensive low pressure has tracked in from the Canadian vortex suppressing the brief ridging which allows surface fronts to encroach the UK overnight Tuesday bringing rain to all regions.

After the passage of the fronts the upper trough is disrupted by the high pressure ridging north thus a drier end to the week  But this in turn this attacked by renewed troughing from the NW and once again the run is noticeable for the interplay between the cold and warm air producing a strong thermal gradient and a strong westerly jet. The result of all this vis the surface evolution is a strong westerly flow, possible gales and quite wet in the north. But again it's worth noting that because of the unpredictable nature of the aforementioned interplay between the cold and warm air the evolution will vary from run to run and between models when you get outside of the near time frame

Edited November 4, 2016 by knocker

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

UKMO moved towards GFS......here wee go

 

BFTP

[Ali1977]

11 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

UKMO moved towards GFS......here wee go

 

BFTP

As did the ECM. Time to enjoy this weekends chill and hope for a better setup later in Nov....

[shaky]

12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

UKMO moved towards GFS......here wee go

 

BFTP

Always happens!!!even when ukmo and ecm agree more often than not in recent time they trend towards the gfs a few days later!!another reason why i wasnt gettting too excited!gfs sort of teases that its coming around towards the ecm and ukmo solutions and then goes back to an atlantic driven pattern!!could change on the 12z again!

[Ice Day]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

As did the ECM. Time to enjoy this weekends chill and hope for a better setup later in Nov....

Indeed so. An early season feather in GFS ' cap it would seem. 

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

As did the ECM. Time to enjoy this weekends chill and hope for a better setup later in Nov....

Fully agree, however, in my experience the models could improve through today and by 12z coldies will be happier.

[terrier]

So after all the talk in past 48hrs of gfs moving towards the euros. It seems this morning that the gfs has been correct all along ukmo takes a giant leap towards the gfs output this morning. Does seem in winter the euros love to lead us all up the garden path especially the ecm. Think until we have cross model support this winter we should be very wary of the euros against the gfs. I know the ecm is suppose to be top performance model but it does seem like the gfs has trumped it these last few winters.

[Man With Beard]

Well I'm blowed. A comprehensive victory by the GFS over ECM and UKMO this morning (and Matt Hugo last night) - that's if this becomes the final outcome of course! Perhaps its upgrade last winter has changed the game a bit, and maybe we're going to see more occasions where the others move towards it.

Really, really surprised to see the ECM backtrack completely on this particular pattern, though, having been consistent for 48 hours. Has its upgrade (earlier this year or last, was it?) made it over sensitive to these sorts of interactions?

Edited November 4, 2016 by Man With Beard

[festivalking]

So in the winter model game an early 1-0 lead for GFS certainly against the run of play.

[mb018538]

We've all seen this chart too many times in recent winters...

[weirpig]

Just now, mb018538 said:

We've all seen this chart too many times in recent winters...

Yes we have. Good job it's Autumn 

[Dancerwithwings]

20 minutes ago, terrier said:

So after all the talk in past 48hrs of gfs moving towards the euros. It seems this morning that the gfs has been correct all along ukmo takes a giant leap towards the gfs output this morning. Does seem in winter the euros love to lead us all up the garden path especially the ecm. Think until we have cross model support this winter we should be very wary of the euros against the gfs. I know the ecm is suppose to be top performance model but it does seem like the gfs has trumped it these last few winters.

Agreed, But in FI the ensembles spread, drowns out any useful signal

 

 

Edited November 4, 2016 by Dancerwithwings

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Or how about this folks. It's ONE model run. Everything can change again in 12 hours.  I'm waiting for that 'winters over' post next! It may well be right who knows but I'm not sure whether you guys are aware but this is what's predicted to happen for next wkend etc not what's actually happened already!!! Let's the victory dance until the actual time period has came rather than 12 hours after a completely different set of charts 

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yes we have. Good job it's Autumn 

Yep, it's flipped back to most definitely defined as autumn now that the colder runs have disappeared this morning!

[Gowon]

Everything you see on the models hasn't actually occurred yet, be it warm or cold, its only predictions.

[karlos1983]

14 minutes ago, festivalking said:

So in the winter model game an early 1-0 lead for GFS certainly against the run of play.

Certainly seems that way fk. I'm always dubious about an ECM showing easterlies,  and this is a good early season reminder that until we are in the 72 hr window with cross model support.......That ECM is about as dependable as Tottenham at Wembley.

[Radiating Dendrite]

ECM is notorious for over amplifying things. People are to quick to write off the GFS - yes it is the most Atlantic biased model but out weather is predominately from the Atlantic.

Anyway, -5c 850s are far too warm this early in the season. Still need another 2 or 3 weeks before widespread snow become realistic. 

[SteveB]

I don't think it's time to despair, hopefully it's the models just picking up the parts of  the vortex moving across the northern hemisphere and over reacting to it.

1. Vortex still not organised and in it's usual place

2. This means still all to play for........