Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[summer blizzard]

5 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

I wonder if the Icelandic eruptions in 2010 coupled with solar minimum led to the harsh december in that year. Yes Ian.P a volcanic eruption now would certainly change hopes for this winter decisively.

The eruptions were relatively small. For an eruption to properly influence winter your looking at a VEI6 eruption.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

11 hours ago, iapennell said:

Gavin's latest Winter 2016-17 prediction is sadly not happy news for cold -lovers (I do include myself amongst them!).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sKbIvROO1o

 

He seems to be putting alot of emphasis on the September CET at the end of his forecast. He points out that an above average September has more often than not led to a mild Winter and shows us the records to prove his point. Though he doesn't make it out to be all doom and gloom and finds the odd ones that didn't such as 2011/12, 2005/06 and 1958/59 for example, though admittedly none of these were below average as such, but did contain periods of cold weather. He points out that you have to go back to the 18th and/or 19th centuries to find any examples of above average September's preceding any below average Winters. Though he does point out that these occurred during the LIA so it's best not to read too much into that. 

Though personally (and maybe I'm being biased here) I think this link is possibly mere coincidence. The only reason I think this happens so often is because periods of both above and below average temperatures can have a tendency to persist for an extended time (sometimes deviating back to average or away in the opposite direction for short bursts, but as a theme tending to remain at one extreme or the other), and it could be that many of these September's and the Winters that followed them were part of an extended period of warmer temperatures (not necessarily that one effected the other). But again it could just be a bit of a weird repeating coincidence. It just seems a little far fetched though that September's CET can cause Winter to be conclusively mild. But I don't know.

[Gael_Force]

Using a calendar month for predicting anything is fraught with difficulties: what conditions does the month consist of, for one... is it warm throughout or a blend of quite extreme periods. There are links to low solar causing meridional flow and if we are in the ridge it would be warm if not it would be cooler. Unlikely the particular ridge/trough pattern in September would be exactly replicated all winter months. Another aspect of September is the likelihood of Atlantic hurricanes and post tropical systems pumping up a ridge ... surely that would have no bearing on the following winter?

[jvenge]

45 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

He seems to be putting alot of emphasis on the September CET at the end of his forecast. He points out that an above average September has more often than not led to a mild Winter and shows us the records to prove his point. Though he doesn't make it out to be all doom and gloom and finds the odd ones that didn't such as 2011/12, 2005/06 and 1958/59 for example, though admittedly none of these were below average as such, but did contain periods of cold weather. He points out that you have to go back to the 18th and/or 19th centuries to find any examples of above average September's preceding any below average Winters. Though he does point out that these occurred during the LIA so it's best not to read too much into that. 

Though personally (and maybe I'm being biased here) I think this link is possibly mere coincidence. The only reason I think this happens so often is because periods of both above and below average temperatures can have a tendency to persist for an extended time (sometimes deviating back to average or away in the opposite direction for short bursts, but as a theme tending to remain at one extreme or the other), and it could be that many of these September's and the Winters that followed them were part of an extended period of warmer temperatures (not necessarily that one effected the other). But again it could just be a bit of a weird repeating coincidence. It just seems a little far fetched though that September's CET can cause Winter to be conclusively mild. But I don't know.

Well, of course it is far fetched. Correlation is not causation. My grandfather used to say to me, as a child, that his toe twitching meant it would be a cold winter. I'd put the September CET as not being much better than that.

Sadly, for many cold lovers, the UK just isn't the best place to be situated. It can and does happen, but by definition, below average, well, is a below average chance and average doesn't deliver for everyone. 

 

[Man With Beard]

Tell me if I'm reading the wrong thing someone - this is the Glosea5 500Hpa forecast. I think it updated today (10/10/16) and I think it tends towards lower heights to our south-west than normal throughout the winter - the white strip on the bottom chart is indicative to me of a zonal train.

Of course LRFs don't mean too much (last year's Glosea5 forecast predicted a cold end to winter, which ended up about 6 weeks late meaning no useful cold for most) - but I'm just putting it here as I've seen some people posting Glosea5 going for considerable high level blocking, which I'm not getting from these charts - am I the one who is wrong??

[North-Easterly Blast]

Certainly in the last 150-200 years it is a well known fact of the British climate is that a significantly warmer than average September almost always leads to a milder than average winter.  However, there is no clear trend the other way round, in the sort of winter a cooler than average September leads to.  Whilst it is not uncommon to have a milder than average winter after a cool September, it is actually very rare to get a colder winter after a warm September.

I will correct you - winter 2011-12 was overall a milder than average one, although saw a cold period in early February.  Winter 2005-06 was roughly overall average.  Winter 1958-59 was slightly below average - with a pretty cold January, although Dec and Feb were roughly overall average.

One example of a decent winter for cold after a relatively warm September was 1985-86 - Sept 1985 was actually quite a warm one, though not as warm as in 2016. 

Certainly the odds are, given the really warm September in 2016, and the fact that we are not quite at solar minimum, and still in a westerly QBO, possible La Nina, that winter 2016-17 is unlikely to be a cold one, and the chances are high that it will be milder than average overall, although hopefully less mild overall than last year, and not a complete write off for cold like 2013-14 was.

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Tell me if I'm reading the wrong thing someone - this is the Glosea5 500Hpa forecast. I think it updated today (10/10/16) and I think it tends towards lower heights to our south-west than normal throughout the winter - the white strip on the bottom chart is indicative to me of a zonal train.

Of course LRFs don't mean too much (last year's Glosea5 forecast predicted a cold end to winter, which ended up about 6 weeks late meaning no useful cold for most) - but I'm just putting it here as I've seen some people posting Glosea5 going for considerable high level blocking, which I'm not getting from these charts - am I the one who is wrong??

If you stick it on Europe it's a bit easier to read. It's saying more or less a 50% chance of the 500mb GPH over the UK and to the SW of being around normal.

[stewfox]

22 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Certainly in the last 150-200 years it is a well known fact of the British climate is that a significantly warmer than average September almost always leads to a milder than average winter.  However, there is no clear trend the other way round, in the sort of winter a cooler than average September leads to.  Whilst it is not uncommon to have a milder than average winter after a cool September, it is actually very rare to get a colder winter after a warm September.

 

Could you provide some evidence for this ? I cant find anything in the CET series. I think this comes up every year that September or October temps have any bearing on the winter out look, they do not.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

To be frank the idea of pattern matching the CET's of certain months to determine how a certain season is likely to play out seems like an absurd one. Every year's different and there is probably no two identical years weather wise and there's no doubt there's enough room for variation in a year's weather as there is for every person's fingerprints and snowflake formations. Therefore any number of variations are possible. As for the last 150-200 years worth of above average September's preceding only at best average to mild Winters, so what. There probably isn't all that great a number of them to go on in that time so the fact this has seemed to happen in that time probably doesn't actually mean there is any sort of connection and can more than likely be put down to mere coincidence. If this is the case it's almost guaranteed by the law of averages that one year we'll get an above average September preceding a below average Winter. Though whether that'll be this year or not is probably no more unlikely than any specific year, no matter what the final CET figure for the preceding September happens to be. Therefore by taking this factor and making a call for an above average Winter you're either going to be wrong, or you're going to be right by luck alone. It becomes nothing more than a game of chance at that point.

[West is Best]

Good evening all. Back on here for the first time since last winter. 

It's a shame the current model set up isn't two months further into winter: typical. Still, it reminds me of 1985/6. 01st October I was sunbathing at just shy of 30C 

We then went on to have a bitterly cold easterly dominated November (the coldest in the past 90 years) and heavily blocked winter, with some extremely cold spells. February's -1.1C is the coldest February since 1947 and the second coldest in the last 110 years. So, who knows?

[Matthew.]

10 Mildest winters(CET)    Following Winter(D, J, F)

1868/69                             2.9, 3.3, 2.8(COLD)

2015/16                             THIS WINTER

1833/34                             5.6, 2.9, 5.7(SLIGHTLY MILD)

1988/89                             4.9, 6.5, 7.3(VERY MILD)

2006/07                             4.9, 6.6, 5.4(MILD)

1974/75                             5.3, 5.9, 4.5(MILD)

1685/86                             6.0, 3.5, 4.5(SLIGHTLY MILD)

1989/90                             4.3, 3.3, 1.5(COLD)

1795/96                            -0.3, 3.5, 4.6(COLD)

1934/35                             2.8, 3.7, 2.6(COLD)

 

 

 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

27 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

10 Mildest winters(CET)    Following Winter(D, J, F)

1868/69                             2.9, 3.3, 2.8(COLD)

2015/16                             THIS WINTER

1833/34                             5.6, 2.9, 5.7(SLIGHTLY MILD)

1988/89                             4.9, 6.5, 7.3(VERY MILD)

2006/07                             4.9, 6.6, 5.4(MILD)

1974/75                             5.3, 5.9, 4.5(MILD)

1685/86                             6.0, 3.5, 4.5(SLIGHTLY MILD)

1989/90                             4.3, 3.3, 1.5(COLD)

1795/96                            -0.3, 3.5, 4.6(COLD)

1934/35                             2.8, 3.7, 2.6(COLD)

 

 

 

So far that's 5 Winters following a top 10 mild Winter that were anything from slightly mild to very mild and 4 that were cold. Well obviously Winter 2016/17 has to be cold to equalise that number . Then again there hasn't been any very cold ones on that list so maybe this coming Winter can provide one and better yet in contrast to last Winter make it into the top 10 coldest Winters. One can dream anyway. Just out of interest though I wonder what Winter was knocked out of the top 10 mildest Winters when 2015/16 made its debut, and what the Winter following that was like?

[Matthew.]

13 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

So far that's 5 Winters following a top 10 mild Winter that were anything from slightly mild to very mild and 4 that were cold. Well obviously Winter 2016/17 has to be cold to equalise that number . Then again there hasn't been any very cold ones on that list so maybe this coming Winter can provide one and better yet in contrast to last Winter make it into the top 10 coldest Winters. One can dream anyway. Just out of interest though I wonder what Winter was knocked out of the top 10 mildest Winters when 2015/16 made its debut, and what the Winter following that was like?

The Super El Niño year of 1997/98 followed by a strong La Niña I believe. That was another MILD one. This year only a weak La Niña probably though.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Well Winter 1998/99 was another mild one then, making that list before 2015/16 got on there 6 mild to 4 cold. Hopefully 2016/17 will make it 5 to 5, rather than 6 to 4 again. 

[Matthew.]

6 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Well Winter 1998/99 was another mild one then, making that list before 2015/16 got on there 6 mild to 4 cold. Hopefully 2016/17 will make it 5 to 5, rather than 6 to 4 again. 

Yes 98/99 was curtains because of that strong La Niña I've heard. This year seems better for Driver setup than that year. The interesting thing is Winter 2010/11 had a strong La Niña and yet still pulled out an incredible month. Probably Solar Minimum and Icelandic eruption played there part though. Yes let this year make it 5-5

Edited October 10, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Paul_1978]

Whatever happens, I'm not looking forward to the old "winter clichés" rolling out, eg:

• "Close but no cigar"
• "...at this juncture..."
• "It's a long way back to cold from there".
• "It's Christmas, there's missing balloon data".
• "It looks like the Atlantic is coming back in" (accompanied by a T+384 chart). [Read the same for people being overly confident with a cold chart at T+384]
• "Will it snow in Carlisle?"
• "Let's wait for the ensembles"
• "Look at this from the NAVGEM"

Updated the post to add suggestions from other posters - many thanks!!

• More runs needed!
• It's all still to play for.
• Cold is locked in for a good while.
• GEM is a peach!
• Waiting for the GFS to smell the coffee.
• Negative tilt
• Pesky warm sector!
• CFS is great at T+5000
• GFS 6z is always the warmest run of the four
• One for the shredder
• GFS v UKMO v ECM - I know which one I'm backing!
• The 18z has been down the pub again!
• Watch for the pesky shortwave!
• Back on topic please!
• That chart is full of potential!

Edited October 12, 2016 by Paul_1978
To add cliches suggested by others :-)

[I remember Atlantic 252]

or the usual snow on northern hills with a NW'ly, NW'lys are useless for low level members in the south

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

Whatever happens, I'm not looking forward to the old "winter clichés" rolling out, eg:

• "Close but no cigar"
• "...at this juncture..."
• "It's a long way back to cold from there".
• "It's Christmas, there's missing balloon data".
• "It looks like the Atlantic is coming back in" (accompanied by a T+384 chart). [Read the same for people being overly confident with a cold chart at T+384]
• "Will it snow in Carlisle?"
• "Let's wait for the ensembles"
• "Look at this from the NAVGEM"

you missed... a few more runs are still needed

and the old classic..its still all to play for!!

[lawrenk]

2 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

Whatever happens, I'm not looking forward to the old "winter clichés" rolling out, eg:

• "Close but no cigar"
• "...at this juncture..."
• "It's a long way back to cold from there".
• "It's Christmas, there's missing balloon data".
• "It looks like the Atlantic is coming back in" (accompanied by a T+384 chart). [Read the same for people being overly confident with a cold chart at T+384]
• "Will it snow in Carlisle?"
• "Let's wait for the ensembles"
• "Look at this from the NAVGEM"

I also like "there's no way the Atlantic's getting through that block, cold locked in for a good while."

This is usually followed by 13 degrees, wind and rain 36 hours later.

[Mark Neal.]

5 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

Whatever happens, I'm not looking forward to the old "winter clichés" rolling out, eg:

• "Close but no cigar"
• "...at this juncture..."
• "It's a long way back to cold from there".
• "It's Christmas, there's missing balloon data".
• "It looks like the Atlantic is coming back in" (accompanied by a T+384 chart). [Read the same for people being overly confident with a cold chart at T+384]
• "Will it snow in Carlisle?"
• "Let's wait for the ensembles"
• "Look at this from the NAVGEM"

So So true!

What about the GEM is a peach!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

September does NOT make winter.  iIf it does have a rock solid link and last time mild Sept was followed by cold winter was in the 18 and 19th century coz we were in a solar grand minina cycle....guess what!  We've entered one again.....so I for one am writing nothing off. This winter is up for grabs with imo some big swings and to-ing and fro-ing 

Edited October 11, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

6 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

Whatever happens, I'm not looking forward to the old "winter clichés" rolling out, eg:

• "Close but no cigar"
• "...at this juncture..."
• "It's a long way back to cold from there".
• "It's Christmas, there's missing balloon data".
• "It looks like the Atlantic is coming back in" (accompanied by a T+384 chart). [Read the same for people being overly confident with a cold chart at T+384]
• "Will it snow in Carlisle?"
• "Let's wait for the ensembles"
• "Look at this from the NAVGEM"

What about 'That chart at T+384 literally screams potential!'?

Or, 'Just look at this chart from August 1962...The rest, as they say, is history!'

[bobbydog]

22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What about 'That chart at T+384 literally screams potential!'?

Or, 'Just look at this chart from August 1962...The rest, as they say, is history!'

"waiting for the GFS to smell the coffee"

"as i alluded to"

"the fat lady sings"

"its only the 18z"

"there's still 5 minutes of winter left"

[Mapantz]

Negative tilt.

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

September does NOT make winter.  iIf it does have a rock solid link and last time mild Sept was followed by cold winter was in the 18 and 19th century coz we were in a solar grand minina cycle....guess what!  We've entered one again.....so I for one am writing nothing off. This winter is up for grabs with imo some big swings and to-ing and fro-ing 

sorry mate, straws comes to mind!