Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Gael_Force]

One of those occasions to break out the GIF

[MR EXTREMES]

absolutely gobsmacked at the weakness of the jet and very similar to how it was split in december 2009.

the the heights to our east will also help with breaking down the vortex.

but all the models are flip flopping because they not confident on how far north northeast east or south or southeast any lows might get so optimistic caution id advise as the overall pattern beyond the unsettled spell could either be cold settled high pressure or a slow creeper cold.

regardless greenland iceland or scandi high will no nicely,

but lots of uncertainty to how cold and settled or unsettled it will be but cooler colder look the form horse.

by next monday id thought there be much better clarity to the models im sure.

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEM isn't too pretty...had to check it said 2016 at the top and not 2015!

[phil nw.]

Well it's been simmering for a while and it seems the Greenland profile is about to undergo a dramatic about face.from now and over the next few days

Current state                                                               Day 6

     

and further on a classic Greenland high-cold lovers couldn't ask for better to start Winter.Note the clockwise motion of the Siberian cold pool in the later frames- bringing those deep cold uppers this way.                 

Edited November 15, 2016 by phil nw.

[feb1991blizzard]

Although to a slightly lesser extent and with slight variations on a theme wrt to getting there, there are a good number of GEFS members backing the op.

[Geordiesnow]

Still uncertainty regarding Sundays potential deep low and its track, could be quite a wet and windy event on our hands here but something is still telling me it won't turn out as deep as its forecast but of course when they come up from the South West like that, there does tend to be more uncertainty.

As for early next week, just when some momentum was gaining for a warm southerly perhaps developing, this has changed somewhat but as you can see, the warm southerlies are not a million miles away so its perhaps a touch and go situation, I think the most likely outcome will be low pressure over us and feeling cool but nothing is guranteed regarding this.

At least some attempts of amplificationm(and possibly at last some decent amplification) is coming more and more into the medium term. Its just ashame the models are suggesting this pesky Russian high could stay around for a bit longer than we like. A 'warm' easterly is certainly possible if this high becomes stubborn and stays at the angle its currently at.

So some good news for cold lovers with the increased amplification in more the medium range but slow moving areas of low pressure and potentially deep lows is a cause for concern regarding rainfall amounts.

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GEM isn't too pretty...had to check it said 2016 at the top and not 2015!

It all starts going downhill upstream at T144hrs with how it handles that low pressure in eastern Canada. The GFS and UKMO are similar at that point hence the more amplified mid Atlantic high pressure. The ECM 00hrs run had a similar low pressure as the GEM 12hrs, it did manage to develop high pressure to the nw but its a close run thing. We certainly don't want this mornings ECM solution again this evening, lets hope it agrees with the GFS/UKMO.

[Mucka]

In among all the FI excitement it has almost gone unnoticed how our couple of chilly days have slowly been upgraded into several days of below average temps.

12z Central England

I guess the fact that the uppers will unlikely be cold enough for snow to fall for most and temps are chilly rather than cold has something to do with that.

Edited November 15, 2016 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It all starts going downhill upstream at T144hrs with how it handles that low pressure in eastern Canada. The GFS and UKMO are similar at that point hence the more amplified mid Atlantic high pressure. The ECM 00hrs run had a similar low pressure as the GEM 12hrs, it did manage to develop high pressure to the nw but its a close run thing. We certainly don't want this mornings ECM solution again this evening, lets hope it agrees with the GFS/UKMO.

Yep and whilst we still have output like that appearing, I certainly won't be popping any champagne corks! 

[Dancerwithwings]

 

14 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

One of those occasions to break out the GIF

I know it's deep into FI but I Just needed to add this chart to make that GIF almost perfect.....

[knocker]

40 minutes ago, Zakos said:

.          Does anyone know if this very large block is a result of the Atlantic and Siberian high "merging" together ? 

I'm not totally sure what you mean.  You have the Azores HP ridging into Greenland and a separate HP cell in eastern Europe with the trough running south over the UK. A pretty classic amplified meridional blocking pattern.

Edited November 15, 2016 by knocker

[nick sussex]

You can see the differences here upstream, this is the crucial stage of the output because you won't get the right WAA going north towards Greenland with the GEM.

GFS T144hrs, UKMO and GEM.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, nick sussex said:

You can see the differences here upstream, this is the crucial stage of the output because you won't get the right WAA going north towards Greenland with the GEM.

GFS T144hrs, UKMO and GEM.

 

Yes, knew which one was the GEM straight away, its positively tilted.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

You can see the differences here upstream, this is the crucial stage of the output because you won't get the right WAA going north towards Greenland with the GEM.

GFS T144hrs, UKMO and GEM.

 

It was much sharper with this 12z compared to the last too , lets see how the ECM plays it out. The potential for a storm on Sunday down south is still there too, Gskes are v likely with potential for something stronger. 

[bluearmy]

Running through the individual gefs perturbs in week 2 and given the time of year and my consequential lack of desperation, there aren't many that I wouldn't take. Of course none of these runs will actually verify but they put forward the boundarys of the envelope 

the new trend is a quite a few want to drop systems south in the 9/12 day period ushering in a more progressive version of the op

 

[feb1991blizzard]

There are a good number of flatliners on the GEFS 12z graph which is a good sign but they are only flatlining at -4c to -6c 850hpa temps.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

It was much sharper with this 12z compared to the last too , lets see how the ECM plays it out. The potential for a storm on Sunday down south is still there too, Gskes are v likely with potential for something stronger.

Lets hope those lows get downgraded, that would increase the chance of some snow on high ground north of the low centre and who needs some hideous storm. We'll know in about 30 minutes!

[Grimers]

Trying to keep up with this thread is incredibly tough, but I'm loving some of the output, especially from the GFS model! If the GFS model is correct, then this Winter could be a repeat of 2010-11!

Edited November 15, 2016 by Grimers

[The PIT]

Say wot

 

 

 

Edited November 15, 2016 by The PIT
Image got corrupted

[Zakos]

 

12 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm not totally sure what you mean.  You have the Azores HP ridging into Greenland and a separate HP cell in eastern Europe with the trough running south over the UK. A pretty classic amplified meridional blocking pattern.

I thought this was the case

Just seemed odd to me how quickly the siberian high seemingly vanishes.            .   .     

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

5 minutes ago, Grimers said:

Trying to keep up with this thread is incredibly tough, but I'm loving some of the output, especially from the GFS model! If the GFS model is correct, then this Winter could be a repeat of 2010-11!

I don't want much but a repeat of December 2010 and then January to March 2013 would suit me just fine!

Momentum starting to build now for a cold spell to develop towards the end of the month if the latest runs (apart from the GEM) are to be believed.

[The PIT]

3 minutes ago, Zakos said:

 

I thought this was the case

Just seemed odd to me how quickly the siberian high seemingly vanishes.            .   .     

It hasn't vanished just moved and not to bad place either. Shame is 13 days away though.

[ITSY]

11 minutes ago, Grimers said:

Trying to keep up with this thread is incredibly tough, but I'm loving some of the output, especially from the GFS model! If the GFS model is correct, then this Winter could be a repeat of 2010-11!

I'd temper your expectations a bit. That was a 1 in 100 year event. The temperature anomalies this time around are almost entirely different - in 2010 the +ve anomalies in mid November were concentrated across Siberia, while Scandinavia, the Arctic, and GB were markedly below average. This time, in 2016, the exact reverse is true. The point here isn't that we can't or won't get a decent winter spell out of where we are right now, but that synoptically, we are starting from a different position. I only say this to cool expectations that Armageddon is coming! As IF has said repeatedly, this period may well wind up with something special - from the N/NE or E - but nothing is nailed yet. Barely a singular model has consistency within its own ensembles yet, let alone cross model consistency! (I say all this with the hope that both will develop soon - I would love a rerun of Dec 2010 more than anyone; I was living in the Middle East at the time, much to my annoyance)! 

Edited November 15, 2016 by ITSY

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Grimers said:

Trying to keep up with this thread is incredibly tough, but I'm loving what some of the output is showing, especially from the GFS! If the GFS is correct, then this Winter could be a repeat of 2010-11!

You aint seen nothing yet, if we get within 3-4 days of a proper Easterly, you will really see this thread properly catch light, I don't know how to find them now but if you checked out the Norh West regional thread from the evening 17th Dec 2010 or better still the SE  thread from 1st feb 2009 - 2nd then you will really see an explosion, we actually even with those years around the turn of the last decade mostly saw good events taking it in turn location wise, I think if we saw a huge swathe of the country get crippled in one go like 91 or 87 then I wouldn't be surprised if the site went down.

[Nick L]

General winter thoughts for the relevant winter thread please guys, otherwise this thread can very quickly get sidetracked. Cheers.