Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM developing colder into the run.  UKMO holding as is GFS re the HP positioning.  To my eye looks like the ECM has edged it a tad further north.  Centre to sit over northern Scotland landing point I think where it'll sit before it makes its next move.  NW or NE like the ECM?

 

BFTP

[blizzard81]

Very surprised that there is no real excitement on here so far regarding the ecm day 10 chart. Yes, I know it's a day 10 chart but it is the best ecm chart I have seen so far this season. It looks even better on wetterzentrale. Easterly incoming and very cold air to tap in to. Very similar to how 47 started! 

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Very surprised that there is no real excitement on here so far regarding the ecm day 10 chart.

I'm excited!major cold blast into eastern Europe, hopefully we can eventually tap into that if it happens.

 

Edited November 18, 2016 by Frosty.

[karlos1983]

Looks to me the ECM is trying to raise heights over scandi! I'd say a good run. Much prefer a scandi high, as they are notoriously hard to shift and when they do there is a good chance of retrogression to Greenland, extending any possible cold spell. 

 

[ArHu3]

29 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Very surprised that there is no real excitement on here so far regarding the ecm day 10 chart. Yes, I know it's a day 10 chart but it is the best ecm chart I have seen so far this season. It looks even better on wetterzentrale. Easterly incoming and very cold air to tap in to. Very similar to how 47 started! 

Nothing past 144h ever comes true anyway, in fact it's a pretty sure bet that whatever is on the 240h chart we won't get

[Singularity]

The biggest progress over he past 24 hours in my eyes is the adjustment toward having a low skip across to our north while we're under the mid-lat block and then drop sharply south as it engages with the western flank of the Siberian/Central Asian polar vortex, which itself looks to be finally getting its act together to mass some deeply cold and unstable air to our east.

The key now is getting that trough dropping into Scandi to do so sharply enough that it ends up well south and height rises can occur to its north as per the ECM 00z.

The signals for a west-based negative NAO have been so extreme that we could conceivably end up with blocking entirely west of Greenland but also a little of to the east as a Scandi feature. This being a good way to end November given the signals for height rises in the vicinity of Greenland in weeks 1-2 of Dec that GP reported of the extended ECM yesterday.

[blizzard81]

33 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm excited!major cold blast into eastern Europe, hopefully we can eventually tap into that if it happens.

 

Absolutely Frosty Lets see what the ensembles show.

[Summer Sun]

ECM

21st to 27th

Temperatures a bit below average - rain below average in the west weaker signals for central, southern and eastern parts

28th to 4th

Temperatures slightly below average for England and Wales a weaker signal for Scotland and NI - rain wise it's a mixed signal

5th to 11th no strong signals for temps and rain

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Absolutely Frosty Lets see what the ensembles show.

Op

Ens

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Op

Ens

Very happy with that ensemble mean. An improvement on last night's.

[bluearmy]

Extended eps - impressed 

no chance of a scandi ridge based on that

think yesterday's gfs 12z broadly 

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps - impressed 

no chance of a scandi ridge based on that

think yesterday's gfs 12z broadly 

And yesterday's Gfs 12z sure was impressive..baby steps in the right direction!

[Glacier Point]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps - impressed 

no chance of a scandi ridge based on that

think yesterday's gfs 12z broadly 

Indeed, notable cluster of members on the 850s heading 'south' within a cold trough.

EC46 was -AO/-NAO throughout, slight trend to neutral NAO just before Christmas but not sustained.

[Sky Full]

I can't help myself.  I keep looking at the GFS in deep FI and dreaming of the possibilities....  If only I could see beyond the end of this sequence after Dec 4th.  

This output will not materialise exactly like this, of course, but the point for me is that these northerly sourced incursions seem to be the current trend instead of the unending Atlantic we have endured for the last few years at this time of year.  Based on current model output it is at last credible if not likely that we will soon be on the receiving end of some memorable winter weather.

 

[warrenb]

Looking at the 6z, I don't think it is cold a snowy in 10 days we should be focusing on, but the storm on Sunday. Looks very reminiscent of 87 to me, never going to be that bad, but has potential.

Edited November 18, 2016 by warrenb

[Nouska]

2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Very surprised that there is no real excitement on here so far regarding the ecm day 10 chart. Yes, I know it's a day 10 chart but it is the best ecm chart I have seen so far this season. It looks even better on wetterzentrale. Easterly incoming and very cold air to tap in to. Very similar to how 47 started! 

There is an option on Meteociel for 'cartes europe 2' - personally prefer the NH wide view but available for those that like the WZ view.

 

[northwestsnow]

Liking GP's post!! models showing a cold high to end November, perfect way to end the month, 5cm now here which is already an improvement on the whole of last winter!! 

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, Nouska said:

There is an option on Meteociel for 'cartes europe 2' - personally prefer the NH wide view but available for those that like the WZ view.

 

Aahhh, I wondered what that was, kept clicking between the two and still couldn't see a difference. Better get my sight tested 

but I too prefer the NH view, 

[Zakos]

Not sure if this has been posted

ECM ensemble mean anomaly finally shows retrogression to Greenland occurring before day 10.

GFS and ECM both now agree on retrogression of the block to greenland, with a cold/very cold airmass approaching from the North East

[Ravelin]

2 minutes ago, Zakos said:

GFS and ECM both now agree on retrogression of the block to greenland, with a cold/very cold airmass approaching from the North East

Much like the current GFS run looks to be heading...

[weatherguy]

Well, this is something lovely to see with my morning cuppa! 

[feb1991blizzard]

1060mb worth slap bang over Greenland and some brutal cold coming down for the end of the run.

[Lampostwatcher]

Some fantastic charts now that the high is on its way to greenland  !

Gfs 

[feb1991blizzard]

I wonder if its the warm sea temps still that are inhibiting any brutal runs coming out.

Edited November 18, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[swfc]

tbh you coudnt write how even in fi the cold 850s manage to miss the uk

it seems just as things look ok someone says "lets throw a shortwave in there"!!! good nhp tho

Edited November 18, 2016 by swfc