North West England Regional Weather Discussion

[chicken soup]

This mild sector being talked about on mod thread better do one on the 6 and 12z....otherwise  laptops will be flying through windows across the northwest ...including mine.

Edited January 9, 2017 by chicken soup

[cheshire snow]

00z GFS was a mild outlier

C.S

[Day 10]

8 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

00z GFS was a mild outlier

C.S

The ensembles normally play catch up though. I hope the 12z's improve but we have been let down all too often in recent times. The usual spots will see the snow. I'm hoping Thurs will still produce but the window has shortened quite a bit this morning.

[Acupuncturist]

Well the BBC and met office forecasts for manchester are underwhelming given the general excitement in the model discussion thread. Not showing any snow for Manchester - I thought it would show a flake or two at least

Edited January 9, 2017 by Acupuncturist

[robbo88]

The met office text forecast only mentions snow showers on Friday and Saturday, nothing of rain or sleet so that to me seems a good sign.

[chicken soup]

19 minutes ago, Acupuncturist said:

Well the BBC and met office forecasts for manchester are underwhelming given the general excitement in the model discussion thread. Not showing any snow for Manchester - I thought it would show a flake or two at least

Same for here...met  office app on phone has me dry all week..except for a bit of sleet on Thurs....i fear this is going breasts up.

 

Edited January 9, 2017 by chicken soup

[Chris.R]

 00Z would see sleet and graupel here on the coast, but likely to change again on the 06Z/12z. 

 Of possibly more interest to me is the convective aspect with high amounts of CAPE for the time of year giving the possibility of thunder annd  large hail in showers. 

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Same for here...met  office app on phone has me dry all week..except for a bit of sleet on Thurs....i fear this is going breasts up.

 

Showers are by nature hit and miss...... For what it's worth http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw88zh40#?fcTime=1484179200 This is the worst prediction for my arae since it came into the Automated range. These change 4 times a day thou.

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 00Z would see sleet and graupel here on the coast, but likely to change again on the 06Z/12z. 

 Of possibly more interest to me is the convective aspect with high amounts of CAPE for the time of year giving the possibility of thunder annd  large hail in showers. 

Thunder Snow would not surprise me in this set up.

[Chris.R]

Said every year but please don't take the Met app predictions as gospel as they're only computer generated and will update as the models update; only use them as a rough guide to cloud cover/wind direction. 

Edited January 9, 2017 by Chris.R

[frosty ground]

6 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Said every year but please don't take the Met app predictions as gospel as they're only computer generated and will update as the models update; only use them as a rough guide to cloud cover/wind direction. 

And every year I say they are useful as a rough guide. 

 

[Chris.R]

12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Thunder Snow would not surprise me in this set up.

Inland definitely, especially in the Irwell valley. Thunder-graupel for the coast. Never seems to be snow with it here as the cells are too deep.  

[cheshire snow]

Again the GFS ends the brief cold snap on Saturday.

This morning's ECM would extend it by a day or two.

C.S

[northwestsnow]

Gfs is really downgrading this at a rate of knots now.6z carries on the trend from the00z.

Need to see this reversed by the 12z...

That includes thur into fri being marginal before the breakdown on saturday.

Oh joy.

Edited January 9, 2017 by northwestsnow

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs is really downgrading this at a rate of knots now.6z carries on the trend from the00z.

Need to see this reversed by the 12z...

That includes thur into fri being marginal before the breakdown on saturday.

Oh joy.

Not sure i see that.... not at your location any way,

[northwestsnow]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Not sure i see that.... not at your location any way,

Hope your right FG.

[cheshire snow]

Weather warning for snow issued from the Met office for Wednesday night through 

Thursday 2-5 cm possible anywere 10-20cm above 300m along with possible lightning 

Strikes which could disrupt power...and yes liverpool is included in the warning.

C.S

[Chris.R]

Warnings for snow and wind are out. No mention of marginality. 2-5 cm widely. Possible disruption due to lightning. All starting as early as Wednesday evening.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1484092800&regionName=uk

Edited January 9, 2017 by Chris.R

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Weather warning for snow issued from the Met office for Wednesday night through 

Thursday 2-5 cm possible anywere 10-20cm above 300m along with possible lightning 

Strikes which could disrupt power...and yes liverpool is included in the warning.

C.S

Thunder snow a high possibility

not sure I've see a warning for lightning before.... 

[Jan]

Just popped into MOD thread, I don't know what to expect now. Confused.com

[Backtrack]

Nah, not buying into GFS. Should get some snow this week- easterly preceding 

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, Jan said:

Just popped into MOD thread, I don't know what to expect now. Confused.com

Well the meto actually have us as best place to be, the coast, yes the coast! Nearly fell over when seeing the warning!

Sleet, snow, thunder, lightning, sun, wind! Excited.com

[Day 10]

26 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Warnings for snow and wind are out. No mention of marginality. 2-5 cm widely. Possible disruption due to lightning. All starting as early as Wednesday evening.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1484092800&regionName=uk

We have waited nearly 4 years mate, I think we deserve it!

[Chris.R]

9 minutes ago, Jan said:

Just popped into MOD thread, I don't know what to expect now. Confused.com

 My advice wait till the 12Zs. 

[northwestsnow]

Yes they are now suggesting showers turning wintry wed night.Defo a radar and lampost day is thurs, upgrades would be most welcome.