North West England Regional Weather Discussion

[SP1986]

All of this talk of park lakes freezing over ... I cycled past a puddle from.Heswall and it was not frozen. Heswall is the worst place you can live if you like frost as all the cold just drains down off the hill. That said it only reached 3 degrees this afternoon

Edited January 5, 2017 by SP1986

[Day 10]

18 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

The 12z ENS are in good agreement for 13-15 January for a NW flow with wintry

Showers uppers of -8 maybe a bit marginal for accumalating snow at sea level

Would imagine uppers of -10 would do thjob.more scatter after the 15th as you

Would expect.

C.S

I now have "slight" interest! Even coastal areas would see snow showers from this chart. Hmmmmm...

Actually, a tad misleading that chart might actually be dry. Cold though!

Edited January 5, 2017 by Day 10

[dodge]

It would be good if those charts are showing the same this time next week but I bet the shortwave drama/mild sector will be waiting in the wings to spoil things.  We'll see...it will be good if we can get beefy snow showers streaming in off the Irish sea.

Speaking of parks and their frozen lakes....(Alexander Park today)

Mild filth on the way tomorrow.

 

Edited January 5, 2017 by dodgeredee

[pip22]

21 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I now have "slight" interest! Even coastal areas would see snow showers from this chart. Hmmmmm...

Actually, a tad misleading that chart might actually be dry. Cold though!

I take it as a pinch of salt. In the next few days I reckon the models could change very drastically as usual.

However though if this verifies by Mid-week next week then I have confidence it will happen.

Edited January 5, 2017 by pip22

[shadowfax]

I have to drive to Norwich for a wedding next weekend so sods law we will have thick snow!!

[iand61]

34 minutes ago, shadowfax said:

I have to drive to Norwich for a wedding next weekend so sods law we will have thick snow!!

if we get the snow in Bacup, I'll save you some for when you get back.

 

[Backtrack]

High cloud from tomorrow's weather front starting to spill in now. Suspect that calls game over on any chance of an early frost tonight too. Still feels cold outside tho  

 

i posted that at like 3pm but it didn't post

cloud is here now. Dropped to 0.4C but now back up to 1c

 

[Chris.R]

6 hours ago, Backtrack said:

High cloud from tomorrow's weather front starting to spill in now. Suspect that calls game over on any chance of an early frost tonight too. Still feels cold outside tho. 

Here it is,  I thought I remembered seeing that. It did post BT.  

Edited January 5, 2017 by Chris.R

[damianslaw]

2 lovely winter days back to back following on from 2 good winter days on the 1 and 2 Jan, certainly 2017 has started off on a very dry calm sunny frosty note, unlike many a recent Jan, last time this happened was 2010 - though much colder then. The sun is cheering things up. Frost lingered in sheltered spots all day again today, after a low of about -3 degrees. Temps quickly fell below freezing this evening, but are now climbing as cloud cover rolls in. The next few days however, look especially dreary with very limited brightness, lots of damp overcast mild murky conditions.. mmm not very inspiring.

Alas we have the promise of a possible potent NW blast come this time next week, a couple of years since we had one, indeed late Jan 2015, early Feb 2015 delivered a fair bit of polar maritime conditions, with a number of light snowfalls, mostly in the evening and overnight that thawed during the daytime, and some light frosts. 

Last winter we managed a surprise snowfall (the only one) on the 16 Jan - similiar timing. Do prefer a snowfall in Jan compared to Feb, less chance of thawing due to a weaker sun, and it just helps make January more bearable. 

BBC forecast has a snowflake for this time next week here even.. first time this season.. lets not get ahead of ourselves. The fells are preety bare of snow at the moment, indeed its been a poor winter so far for mountain snowfall, after a very promising start in November. We had snow on the 9 November for goodness sake.. come on January do what you should do.. we had snow on the 30 April last year as well.. 

 

[Day 10]

12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

2 lovely winter days back to back following on from 2 good winter days on the 1 and 2 Jan, certainly 2017 has started off on a very dry calm sunny frosty note, unlike many a recent Jan, last time this happened was 2010 - though much colder then. The sun is cheering things up. Frost lingered in sheltered spots all day again today, after a low of about -3 degrees. Temps quickly fell below freezing this evening, but are now climbing as cloud cover rolls in. The next few days however, look especially dreary with very limited brightness, lots of damp overcast mild murky conditions.. mmm not very inspiring.

Alas we have the promise of a possible potent NW blast come this time next week, a couple of years since we had one, indeed late Jan 2015, early Feb 2015 delivered a fair bit of polar maritime conditions, with a number of light snowfalls, mostly in the evening and overnight that thawed during the daytime, and some light frosts. 

Last winter we managed a surprise snowfall (the only one) on the 16 Jan - similiar timing. Do prefer a snowfall in Jan compared to Feb, less chance of thawing due to a weaker sun, and it just helps make January more bearable. 

BBC forecast has a snowflake for this time next week here even.. first time this season.. lets not get ahead of ourselves. The fells are preety bare of snow at the moment, indeed its been a poor winter so far for mountain snowfall, after a very promising start in November. We had snow on the 9 November for goodness sake.. come on January do what you should do.. we had snow on the 30 April last year as well.. 

 

Yes extremely poor. If the hills have only managed this amount then the coast has no chance. This is one of the longest stretches I can remember without any meaningful lying snow. March 2013 was our last snowfall here, that is pretty ridiculous! Since then a few fleeting showers and a couple of very slushy very temporary coverings.

I still believe however that we are just in a run of really bad luck, I am a believer of the sun having a huge impact on the northern hemisphere and I am really interested over the next 10-30 years what will happen with sunspots fast disappearing, will temperatures drop again in these parts over the coming winters or not? Very interesting times ahead.

[cheshire snow]

All on track on this morning models for six days time.then a reload from the NW a few days later lovely 

Edit uppers at -10 for the 13th January that is more than sufficient for settling snow.

Edited January 6, 2017 by cheshire snow

[wrightc23]

It does actually look like there's a bit of potential for us next week. Obviously still some way out.

[Day 10]

41 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

All on track on this morning models for six days time.then a reload from the NW a few days later lovely 

Edit uppers at -10 for the 13th January that is more than sufficient for settling snow.

 

41 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

All on track on this morning models for six days time.then a reload from the NW a few days later lovely 

Edit uppers at -10 for the 13th January that is more than sufficient for settling snow.

Here's hoping CS. 24 hours of heavy snow showers blasting in on a cold NW wind sounds perfect!!!

So I excited I seemed to of quoted you twice! haha

[cheshire snow]

20 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

 

Here's hoping CS. 24 hours of heavy snow showers blasting in on a cold NW wind sounds perfect!!!

So I excited I seemed to of quoted you twice! haha

Looks good and for the first time we have cross model agreement,OK not going to be a

Long cold spell, maybe 48-72hrs but  will certainly be potent.forget about looking

East look NW because that were round two will come from.

C.S

Edited January 6, 2017 by cheshire snow

[Miamay]

Rain rain rain !! 

[dodge]

GFS trying to kill off the cold 'snap' before it even get's into gear, but the ECM has fought back with some exciting chilly (potentially) snowy days from next Thursday onwards...more of a cold spell.  Maybe we'll get something of a in-between setup, but location wise we're still best placed for the initial north westerly.

Edited January 6, 2017 by dodgeredee

[iand61]

2 minutes ago, dodgeredee said:

GFS trying to kill off the cold 'snap' before it even get's into gear, but the ECM has fought back with some exciting chilly (potentially) snowy days from next Thursday onwards...more of a cold spell.  Maybe we'll get something of a in-between setup, but location wise we're still best placed for the initial north westerly.

I hope we get something next week as days like these that start poor and then go downhill really get on my nerves.

snow will be a welcome bonus but dry sunny and cold will do instead of this mild depressing muck.

 

[damianslaw]

10 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Yes extremely poor. If the hills have only managed this amount then the coast has no chance. This is one of the longest stretches I can remember without any meaningful lying snow. March 2013 was our last snowfall here, that is pretty ridiculous! Since then a few fleeting showers and a couple of very slushy very temporary coverings.

I still believe however that we are just in a run of really bad luck, I am a believer of the sun having a huge impact on the northern hemisphere and I am really interested over the next 10-30 years what will happen with sunspots fast disappearing, will temperatures drop again in these parts over the coming winters or not? Very interesting times ahead.

Yes there has been significant correlation in the past 2 cycles of low solar cycle periods coinciding with cold winters, usually when we are at the bottom of the cycle and coming out of it, rather than declining into the low point, winter 08/09 coincided with low point of last cycle, and the that winter and the following two had notable cold periods. The solar cycle before hit a low point winter 95/96 that one was cold, and the following one had a cold first half.. also high points of the cycle winter 99/00 and winter 13/14, 11/12 double peaks, coincided with wet mild winters.

The current cycle is far weaker than the last one though, and we are due to reach the bottom of the cycle I think in two winters time, so will be interesting to see if this trend continues, if it does then the winters of 18/19, 19/20 and 20/21 could be expected to see notably cold conditions. There are some predicting a very long period ahead with very weak solar input... 

Back to the models, the potential for some snow however transitory by this time next week continues to be shown. The fells should see quite a dosing, fingers crossed we have some snowy landscapes to enjoy next weekend, will become clearer through the next 48 hours.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Late next week looks very good for snow IF the models keep on the right track, significant snow, even to low levels imo. Should see my first flake of snow this winter.

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Late next week looks very good for snow IF the models keep on the right track, significant snow, even to low levels imo. Should see my first flake of snow this winter.

Yes fingers crossed. The fells haven't had any significant snow since late November. If we get some next Friday, it will be very similiar timing to last winter, when we had to wait until the second full weekend of Jan to see some of the white stuff, that was a temporary affair, but timed perfectly on the Saturday, so many could enjoy the snowy delights Sunday morning, it quickly thawed, but it was a good event. 

[dodge]

 

Wish we could skip the weekend and wake up on Monday to the models showing what they are now for late next week and beyond.  Still waiting for the slap in the face downgrade to come for registering the slightest of interest at anything further than 5 days out.

Edited January 6, 2017 by dodgeredee

[Chris.R]

@Day 10 and me  are trying very hard to forget about Saturday 16th Jan last year. I can't even think about it; it was too horrific. 

[Miamay]

Thick fog here this morning and rain. 

[iand61]

Grotty, dismal, depressing..........I'm sure I can find other words to sum up current conditions although no doubt some would get me in trouble.

never mind at least the BBC forecasters have already reminded me how mild it is across the UK and how lucky we are to be in this position.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Hello folks, are you not getting confident about this upcoming cold snap, surely you guys could do well with Irish Sea streamers etc?