Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Frosty.]

Wow plenty of interest from the Ecm 12z with alternating cold / mild air masses from later in the week onwards with snow likely to feature at times..better than the first 2 weeks of winter where there has been nothing really to talk about apart from mild benign dry and dull!

Edited December 18, 2016 by Frosty.

[West is Best]

41 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Now before I potentially go on a bit of a rant, can we just call the upcoming week zonal, because it is not a cold zonal pattern,

 

Everything to the north of the Polar Front Jet is cold zonality. Which in the case of the 12z GFS means most of the country most of the time.

[MR EXTREMES]

oooo interesting last chart from the ecm 

[IDO]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

How predictable that when the models show the possibility of the Atlantic throwing something at us that you don't want, you down play the Atlantic's influence... when you build its influence up at all other times.

As it happens, I think the Christmas storminess will get downplayed. That was a really good point made by someone else earlier - that the GFS underplays heights to the south

No. It was based on looking at the ensembles that are tending by D10 to suggest the mini ridge/trough combo is in a good cluster and as GEM and ECM ops are in that ball park I drew the conclusion that the GFS was overplaying the Atlantic zonal flow (a regular occurrence):

here & here

 

[gottolovethisweather]

17 minutes ago, IDO said:

That is fleeting and Christmas day looks mild to me, especially the south. The ECM uppers:

  London ENS

And GFS suggests Christmas Eve and Christmas Day highs 3c above average and I believe they are being too progressive with the Atlantic and will have mini-ridge trough combo rather than stormy come the day, more like ECM and GEM.

 

 

Christmas Day looks mild, but the 20th, 22nd, 23rd and the 24th all look below average even in the temperate South for once. Are you cherry picking your comments now I'm Dreaming of A White Christmas?  Anyway, I'm intrigued by what you think might happen by D16 and will await those analyses with interest. To my mind, tonight's ECM is something to be treasured given the flow is largely from off the Atlantic throughout. Much to be cheery about IF the ECM were to verify, not perfect for coldies but any means but NOT as desperately poor as some might think it is, from reading in between the lines on some of the posts in here tonight. Off to watch the darts, enjoy your evening IDO and everyone else!

[booferking]

Cant complain about ECM some pretty cold shots in the lead up to Xmas then height rises in the Atlantic Area towards Iceland all in all a great run..

 

Edited December 18, 2016 by booferking

[Matthew.]

Yes where's the ECM wandering towards January:

[Singularity]

Huh. ECM ens finally show some progression eastward of the MJO signal in week 2 and now we have a more amplified ECM 12z to wonder about.

More runs needed to see if this adjustment sticks or not. It's a way to escape the low AAM state (though we may barely get below neutral anyway) so I really hope it does!

Edited December 18, 2016 by Singularity

[mhielte]

1 minute ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Yes where's the ECM wandering towards January:

Exactly where the MetO wants it to wander to?...

"There is also the potential, although with very little confidence attached to it, that pressure may also build to the west of the UK across the Atlantic, and this would bring a high chance of seeing a colder interlude develop." from their extended outlook

 

[gottolovethisweather]

10 minutes ago, IDO said:

No. It was based on looking at the ensembles that are tending by D10 to suggest the mini ridge/trough combo is in a good cluster and as GEM and ECM ops are in that ball park I drew the conclusion that the GFS was overplaying the Atlantic zonal flow (a regular occurrence):

here & here

 

 

 

 

2

 

Can you please clarify your future posts with the timescales you are referring to, otherwise we end up with a lot of posts like this very one, querying what you mean.  IDO, you are not alone in this as plenty of other folk do the same   , anyway........ Onwards and upwards. Enjoy your evening, people.

Edited December 18, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[bluearmy]

Both gem and ECM ops develop amplification at day 10 and both show a Polar high of sorts at the same time to our north. Of course it's a long way to get there in the first place but it's another ticket 

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, booferking said:

Cant complain about ECM some pretty cold shots in the lead up to Xmas then height rises in the Atlantic Area towards Iceland all in all a great run..

 

Absolutely, something to look forward to and a cold christmas eve with wintry showers and snow for some..am I dreaming!

Edited December 18, 2016 by Frosty.

[Purga]

Interesting ECM 240hrs - signs of the EC46 retrogression of HP to the mid Atlantic?

[Summer Sun]

Both GEM and ECM saying no to the Christmas day storm tonight

ECM looks quite mild too

[bobbydog]

12 minutes ago, IDO said:

No. It was based on looking at the ensembles that are tending by D10 to suggest the mini ridge/trough combo is in a good cluster and as GEM and ECM ops are in that ball park I drew the conclusion that the GFS was overplaying the Atlantic zonal flow (a regular occurrence):

here & here

 

 

28 minutes ago, IDO said:

That is fleeting and Christmas day looks mild to me, especially the south. The ECM uppers:

And GFS suggests Christmas Eve and Christmas Day highs 3c above average and I believe they are being too progressive with the Atlantic and will have mini-ridge trough combo rather than stormy come the day, more like ECM and GEM.

No. You weren't referring to day 10. That's quite clear.....

[Summer Sun]

Pretty much sums up the models tonight...

 

[blizzard81]

You have to laugh! The ecm is such an attention seeker. It now throws up a Jan 47 tease at 10 days out. 

[Zakos]

27 minutes ago, mhielte said:

Exactly where the MetO wants it to wander to?...

"There is also the potential, although with very little confidence attached to it, that pressure may also build to the west of the UK across the Atlantic, and this would bring a high chance of seeing a colder interlude develop." from their extended outlook

 

ECM isn't completely alone either.

The GFS 06z was showing something similar yesterday.

Could be just a fluke, but if we see signs of this tommorow aswell, it may well be something to watch.

 

Edited December 18, 2016 by Zakos

[Dennis]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Pretty much sums up the models tonight...

 

I call this a HORROR

[shuggee]

13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Pretty much sums up the models tonight...

 

Well no, not really. The 28th December is ten days away - that's 240 hours of weather.  Days 1 - 3 believe the detail. Days 4 - 6 watch the themes and look for correlation. Days 7 - 9 look for the broader picture. Day 10+ only fools take seriously.  Disappointing tweet.

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, Dennis said:

I call this a HORROR

I call it normal it was much better when we didn't have all this long range model watching 

[bluearmy]

25 minutes ago, Purga said:

Interesting ECM 240hrs - signs of the EC46 retrogression of HP to the mid Atlantic?

That retrogression to the Atlantic was post day 18. And a repeat of the 00z eps would leave Thursday's run looking a bit rum days 10/15. 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO at t168 is looking unsettled though hard to say how deep the low is at the hight of the chart

Wind speeds in Kts

Edited December 18, 2016 by Summer Sun

[chris55]

168 on GFS vs 168 on ECM...... ECM has done with the storm and subsequently builds a mid Atlantic ridge. GFS ramps up the xmas day storm, then continues with a more zonal outlook. Which one will be right....i have no idea.

 

Edited December 18, 2016 by chris55

[Summer Sun]

Just now, chris55 said:

168 on GFS vs 168 on ECM...... ECM has done with the storm and subsequently builds a mid Atlantic ridge. GFS ramps up the xmas day storm, the continues with a more zonal outlook. Which one will be right....i have no idea.

 

 

Maybe a meet in the middle type situation

Another 45 mins or so will show us what if any support the ECM Op has