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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Amazing Gfs 18z run with a risk of disruptive snow for some of us at times, especially scotland as well as bouts of heavy rain and severe gales..boring it most definitely isn't!:D:santa-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted (edited)

I'm not a big fan of pattern matching as a rule, but looking at the output over recent days I'm thinking more of winter 1988 than any of the years quoted earlier. I've seen nothing whatsoever to suggest we will see any HLB. Looking through the output we can see its heights to our south / southeast all the way. There is nothing to cheer in the ensemble suites either.

As always things can change, but right now were in a similar place to this time last year imho.

Edit: I'm deliberately ignoring ECM 10 day chart as its prone to over amplification at that range.

 

Edited by Jason M
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

GFS(p) 12z note quite as dramatic as the 18z.

IMG_4185.PNGIMG_4186.PNG

Still blowy mind! But you can probably walk to the pub rather than fly !

Edited by karlos1983
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, karlos1983 said:

GFS(p) 12z note quite as dramatic as the 18z.

IMG_4185.PNGIMG_4186.PNG

Still blowy mind! But you can probably walk to the pub rather than fly !

P5 , would that be a record low.

IMG_3802.PNG

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Not much appetite for the storm in the GEFS thankfully. Increased confidence that the ECM is correct on this one.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Jason M said:

I'm not a big fan of pattern matching as a rule, but looking at the output over recent days I'm thinking more of winter 1988 than any of the years quoted earlier. I've seen nothing whatsoever to suggest we will see any HLB. Looking through the output we can see its heights to our south / southeast all the way. There is nothing to cheer in the ensemble suites either.

As always things can change, but right now were in a similar place to this time last year imho.

Edit: I'm deliberately ignoring ECM 10 day chart as its prone to over amplification at that range.

 

Really? Things don't seem nearly far as extreme considering we've only had one named storm this season. Seems like an over reaction to the GFS output tbh.

GEM

gem-0-168.png?12 

ECM

ECM1-168.GIF?18-0

GFS

gfs-0-168.png?18

 

Looks pretty clear which one is being a bit too pushy, and no other than the GFS.

Para looks like the halfway house.

gfs-0-174.png?12

 

Edited by SN0WM4N
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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Well I would not be a fan of that Christmas storm personally, but the 18z controle offers something more seasonal on Christmas day and into boxing day as winds veer Northwesterly. I wonder.:santa-emoji:

gens-0-1-174.png

gens-0-2-174-1.png

gens-0-0-180.png

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Control has a better angle dragging in colder air, sure to bring wintryness (if verified) 

IMG_4188.PNGIMG_4187.PNG

Edited by karlos1983
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

P5 , would that be a record low.

IMG_3802.PNG

It's low, but not low enough. The record is around the 870 mark I believe  - imagine that!!!

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

P5 , would that be a record low.

IMG_3802.PNG

I'm sorry Ali, that doesn't ring any bells...

Edited by bobbydog
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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
37 minutes ago, More Snow said:

And most of the JFM that followed had cold and snow at some point.... think Feb 91 as one example... ok 2013 and 15 didnt go on to produce cold for the remainder but im sure the other years did....

Jfm 85 and 87 were pretty epic here in the Netherlands ,  I still have scars from January 85 to remind me ...

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Gael_Force Accomplished

Gael_Force

Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
Posted
36 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Yes it looks worse and larger than that storm on the GFS, though the GFS didn't really show show the true structure of that storm. The 2014 storm featured a gust of 159 kmh at Shannon Airport.

2014:                                                           18Z tonight:

9-289UK_hbw3.GIF162-289UK_pqh2.GIF

Meteociel have the ECM archive with more times and conditions. This was the actual 2metre winds at midday; the gusts would have been ferocious.

archivesuk-2014-2-12-12-6.png

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

I'm sorry Ali, that doesn't ring any bells...

Aye, no need to be alarmed. ECM tones down the storm so maybe alerts will not be necessary. 

Should silence the doom mongers.

Am I doing it right?? :rofl:

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JBMWeatherForever Aficionado

JBMWeatherForever

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man
Posted

Sure hope the GFS is wrong as here in the Isle of Man we would have gusts over 100mph on Christmas day. Does look like it's on its own though, and it does sometimes seem to overcook such situations.

Does seem that there is a trend recently to bring these lows further south, and so potentially some of the air dragged in behind them that may well be cold enough for some snow showers in northern and northwester parts at Christmas. This does look quite possible now.

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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted
7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

It's low, but not low enough. The record is around the 870 mark I believe  - imagine that!!!

Yea 870 was tropical cyclone reading and 914 is lowest temperate reading so  910 would smash the record.

gens-5-1-180.png

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Dutch ensembles trending down slightly (2m temps). London should be out soon. 

 

IMG_4189.PNG

IMG_4190.GIF

yup, pretty inconclusive 

Edited by karlos1983
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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
1 hour ago, Bullseye said:

Who would have thought this would have been possible after such a weak vortex in November. Let's hope the rest of winter can follow most of years above minus 1956 (couldn't find enough information on that winter) and 2015. Should add that after some research, 1990 Christmas Day had a pretty severe storm, much like current run from GFS.

Some of those winters had big easterlies by the end of January ;)

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snowangel32 Rising Star

snowangel32

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Posted

Some great posts tonight and a great read, seems the models are really struggling with the energy coming from the Atlantic whipping up some nasty lows. Ecm is short term pain for long term gain. Giving us a mildish Xmas once again but on a positive shows ridging towards Iceland and maybe giving us some proper cold in January. Gfs wants to blow away the UK on Xmas but with PM mixed in giving many a chance of the holy grail of winter, the fabled but elusive white Christmas but afterwards firmly puts the Atlantic storm train back in charge and flattening any potential ridging. It's a hard choice but I am rooting for the GFS. I am with Frosty and dreaming. 

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snowangel32 Rising Star

snowangel32

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Posted
11 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Sure hope the GFS is wrong as here in the Isle of Man we would have gusts over 100mph on Christmas day. Does look like it's on its own though, and it does sometimes seem to overcook such situations.

Does seem that there is a trend recently to bring these lows further south, and so potentially some of the air dragged in behind them that may well be cold enough for some snow showers in northern and northwester parts at Christmas. This does look quite possible now.

Wasn't it the GFS who spotted the change in November from a cold set up and was entirely on its own. If wrong I am sorry. 

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JBMWeatherForever Aficionado

JBMWeatherForever

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man
Posted

I'm not rooting for the GFS to be right, as although I also like white Christmas's, I like my house even more. I know that the GFS is sometimes good at spoting trends which the other models then catch on to, but I do think that it does often tends to over deepen Atlantic lows on its output.       

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Expect the unexpected, probably be all change on tomorrows runs. That Christmas low is odds on to be toned down a fair bit I would think.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Has anyone ever seen anything like this modeled?

Is it even possible? That's 910mb low West of Scotland.

gens-5-1-180.png

Edited by Mucka
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radiohead Experienced

radiohead

Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
Posted
31 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Has anyone ever seen anything like this modeled?

Is it even possible? That's 910mb low West of Scotland.

gens-5-1-180.png

Braer Storm had an estimated pressure of 914, though of course it could have been a bit deeper than that. So yes, that is possible but highly unlikely.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, radiohead said:

Braer Storm had an estimated pressure of 914, though of course it could have been a bit deeper than that. So yes, that is possible but highly unlikely.

Well that storm was the deepest on record at 914mb so it would set a new record if it happened.

 

GFS 00z paints quite a picture for the big day.

A powerful storm

gfs-0-156.png

Torrential rain and flooding.

gfs-2-150.png

And yes, maybe even some snow.

gfs-2-162.pnggfs-1-168.png

Edited by Mucka
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