Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[booferking]

GFS blows the low up a lot later and much closer to the uk Christmas eve..

Edited December 18, 2016 by booferking

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

GFS blows the low up a lot later and much closer to the uk Christmas eve..

 The Christmas Day low is still on the far side of the Atlantic there.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

 The Christmas Day low is still on the far side of the Atlantic there.

I know it is but the Christmas eve storm is now smack bang on us as below one low at a time?

Edited December 18, 2016 by booferking

[radiohead]

A stormy Xmas Eve for Scotland on the 18Z

[radiohead]

Xmas Day storm looks to be rolling in ever stronger on this run.

[booferking]

And now we have christmas day storm 24hrs later a double hit this time,  now that storm is dangerous very like the 1998 boxing day storm,

Edited December 18, 2016 by booferking

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

And now we have christmas day storm 24hrs later a double hit this time,  now that storm is dangerous very like the 1998 boxing day storm,

Those who like blizzards, head to the mountains in Scotland. Epic storm looking at that !!

[Gael_Force]

Who was it said it'll just be damp and a bit windy?

 

[Ice Day]

The Christmas Day storm is looking pretty horrendous on this run, must be 100mph wind at least. Whilst I love all things weather, this would really be a serious storm by any UK standard and I hope it doesn't verify. Mind you, would likely bring blizzard like conditions to the Scottish Highlands, which given is where I'm spending Christmas, is some consolation!!!

 

[radiohead]

 

[booferking]

Just now, Gael_Force said:

Who was it said it'll just be damp and a bit windy?

 

Thats got snow showers marching in behind writing all over it.

[bluearmy]

45 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well hey ho said Reilly. where do we go with tonight's anomalies. The ecm has gone off on one or else it's spotted something nobody else has.

Upstream they are still quite similar except the ecm has reorientated the Greenland lobe and retrogressed the Atlantic trough which promotes quite strong ridging just to the east of  the UK. Ergo the eastern Atlantic switches from zonal to quite amplifies in a shake of Sidney's tail. What has instigated this is a tad above my pay grade. It does explains the differences in the det outputs earlier but at the moment the ecm has to be taken with a large dose of Saxo I feel although it undoubtedly would be the better outlook.

Not sure there is a lot of point looking further ahead but out of interest the differences do continue. NOAA and the GEFS have the trough to the NW with a zonal westerly whereas the EPS continues to be more amplified and the UK under the influence of the Azores HP apart from the far north,

The 8/14 CPC will be raw naefs knocker with it being a Sunday.  Tomorrow's output cannot have 12z ECM included so if the 00z eps repeat today's 12z then will be interesting to see how CPC react with their blended chart. 

[Iceberg]

More wintry weather on Christmas Eve, more widespread and then more wind for more people in Christmas Day. 

Most of the country experiencing gusts of 70mph and some areas gusts to 110mph. 

 

[Iceberg]

The storm is then followed by snow overnight for many into boxing day

[Summer Sun]

Large areas of the UK under gales on this run from GFS 

Let's see if ECM reverts back to the storm in the morning 

[karlos1983]

16 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Those who like blizzards, head to the mountains in Scotland. Epic storm looking at that !!

Lol Ali, I would suggest that probably isn't the best advice, or we could end up several hundred Furum members down. I'd be coming down the mountain when she comes 

[Cheshire Freeze]

15 minutes ago, radiohead said:

 

Would knock the power out in a lot of places...not what I or any of us want on Christmas day. Though it would put the icing on the cake of what has been an utterly crap winter thus far. 

[Bullseye]

Who would have thought this would have been possible after such a weak vortex in November. Let's hope the rest of winter can follow most of years above minus 1956 (couldn't find enough information on that winter) and 2015. Should add that after some research, 1990 Christmas Day had a pretty severe storm, much like current run from GFS.

Edited December 18, 2016 by Bullseye

[blizzard81]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Would knock the power out in a lot of places...not what I or any of us want on Christmas day. Though it would put the icing on the cake of what has been an utterly crap winter thus far. 

Absolutely. Lets hope the ecm is on the right path tonight.

[West is Best]

This really isn't funny.

 

Christmas storm.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, West is Best said:

This really isn't funny.

 

Christmas storm.

 

The 18z representation looks worse than the Feb 2014 storm and that ripped enough trees apart round here and blew the roof off the train station. Coastal NW England looking at 100mph+ on this run.

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, Bullseye said:

Who would have thought this would have been possible after such a weak vortex in November. Let's hope the rest of winter can follow most of years below minus 1956 (couldn't find information on that winter) and 2015...

Interestingly December 1986 is on there, we all know what happened a week and a half later!  Also, December 1990, and we all know what happened 5 weeks later!!!  I think you get my drift.

[knocker]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The 8/14 CPC will be raw naefs knocker with it being a Sunday.  Tomorrow's output cannot have 12z ECM included so if the 00z eps repeat today's 12z then will be interesting to see how CPC react with their blended chart. 

Yes I'm aware of the CPC situation Blue and it will also be interesting how the GEFS react always assuming the EPS doesn't modify it's position of course. I'm not totally surprised at the end result, but rather the timing and speed of the transition. Interesting though.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Who would have thought this would have been possible after such a weak vortex in November. Let's hope the rest of winter can follow most of years above minus 1956 (couldn't find enough information on that winter) and 2015...

And most of the JFM that followed had cold and snow at some point.... think Feb 91 as one example... ok 2013 and 15 didnt go on to produce cold for the remainder but im sure the other years did....

[radiohead]

12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The 18z representation looks worse than the Feb 2014 storm and that ripped enough trees apart round here and blew the roof off the train station. Coastal NW England looking at 100mph+ on this run.

Yes it looks worse and larger than that storm on the GFS, though the GFS didn't really show show the true structure of that storm. The 2014 storm featured a gust of 159 kmh at Shannon Airport.

2014:                                                           18Z tonight:

Edited December 18, 2016 by radiohead