Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Wow so we have the first winter is over post 18 days in. for sure the models dont look to good at the moment. but it was only a few days ago they didnt look to bad, so plenty of time for things to change. we have been here before remember winters past when stella charts jumped up out of knowhere. sure the back ground signals have failed us this month but whats to say things can still shift to our favour.... if it was February 18th then maybe winter could be over... but not this early...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted (edited)

see my edit

sorry

Edited by johnholmes
apologies for my post which I have deleted
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
7 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Wow so we have the first winter is over post 18 days in. for sure the models dont look to good at the moment. but it was only a few days ago they didnt look to bad, so plenty of time for things to change. we have been here before remember winters past when stella charts jumped up out of knowhere. sure the back ground signals have failed us this month but whats to say things can still shift to our favour.... if it was February 18th then maybe winter could be over... but not this early...

No hope first 192h and if the charts do get better it needs time for the cold to reach us, earliest possible cold after new year but then it's almost the coldest part of the year, so if it doesn't happen then little chance for good lasting snow

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted
1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

No hope first 192h and if the charts do get better it needs time for the cold to reach us, earliest possible cold after new year but then it's almost the coldest part of the year, so if it doesn't happen then little chance for good lasting snow

Some of the best snowy and cold spells have occurred in February here in the SE, so plenty of time to go. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted

Just going by this run some people may wake up to snow on the ground Christmas Day

With Christmas Eve seeing quite a few snow showers for Northern and western areas.

C.S

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, radiohead said:

:help:

gfs-0-168_rof8.png

Yep, looking very nasty again on this run. Widespread severe gales, storm force in more exposed locations.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, radiohead said:

:help:

gfs-0-168_rof8.pnggfs-0-171-3h_yih5.png

Snow showers on Xmas eve then it's mixed out later in the day then it returns Xmas day evening according to gfs12z:santa-emoji:

Edited by snowice
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kieran Explorer

Kieran

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham 166m ASL
  • Location: Birmingham 166m ASL
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, snowice said:

Snow showers on Xmas eve then it's mixed out later in the day then it returns. Xmas day evening according to gfs12z

 

IMG_0968.PNG

Snow for Scotland and parts of Northern England in the early hours of Christmas Day too.

Edited by Kieran
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yep, looking very nasty again on this run. Widespread severe gales, storm force in more exposed locations.

The models do seem to be firming up on storm force winds over the Xmas period, judging by GFS 12z the potential is there for some very damaging conditions, more especially in the NW, but the other models backing up at least the prospect of widespread gales.

Hopefully, should it turn out anything like GFS12z , people get plenty of warning and get those Xmas lights and decorations that are outdoors down.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted

Yep, nothing wintry showing in the reliable. 

144-574UK.GIF?18-12

Nothing to see here, everyone move along please. 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kieran Explorer

Kieran

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham 166m ASL
  • Location: Birmingham 166m ASL
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Yep, nothing wintry showing in the reliable. 

144-574UK.GIF?18-12

Nothing to see here, everyone move along please. 

6 hours later...

IMG_0966.PNG

Snow for pretty much the whole of the UK (Bar the far south)

BOOM!

Edited by Kieran
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
khodds Experienced

khodds

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Popular Post
Posted

It's A WEEK away though.. surely we all know by now that it's unlikely to verify?! It's great to see but I really can't see it happening to be honest.. sorry

  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jonathan Bollen Rookie

Jonathan Bollen

Posted
  • Location: Derby
  • Location: Derby
Posted
Just now, khodds said:

It's A WEEK away though.. surely we all know by now that it's unlikely to verify?! It's great to see but I really can't see it happening to be honest.. sorry

I think it will not happen as a week a away models chop and change each run. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kieran Explorer

Kieran

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham 166m ASL
  • Location: Birmingham 166m ASL
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, khodds said:

It's A WEEK away though.. surely we all know by now that it's unlikely to verify?! It's great to see but I really can't see it happening to be honest.. sorry

Very true. Or the Synoptics showing on Christmas Eve could be pushed back 12 hours or so and that would bring a white Christmas for most of the UK.

Exciting times :D

But yeah models can and probably will change, but to see widespread snow at +150 hours isn't too shabby ;)

Edited by Kieran
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
khodds Experienced

khodds

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Posted
Just now, Kieran said:

Very true. Or the Synoptics showing on Christmas Eve could be pushed back 12 hours or so and that would bring a white Christmas for most of the UK.

Exciting times :D

 

It would be great if it did. But this is the GFS after all.. the ECM wasn't looking too rosy earlier today was it? (Can't remember the specifics) If that suddenly changes tact I'll start getting excited..

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted
3 minutes ago, khodds said:

It's A WEEK away though.. surely we all know by now that it's unlikely to verify?! It's great to see but I really can't see it happening to be honest.. sorry

Give me a good reason why not, not just a 'feeling' or 'default to mild'. The models have been showing transient cold, wintry periods from this mid week on for days. Yes they come and go, timings change etc but some are highly likely to see snow this week. Nothing spectacular I'll admit, but snow is snow. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Latest Weather News

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-05-02 07:37:13 Valid: 02/05/2024 0900 - 03/04/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 02 MAY 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Risk of thunderstorms overnight with lightning and hail

    Northern France has warnings for thunderstorms for the start of May. With favourable ingredients of warm moist air, high CAPE and a warm front, southern Britain could see storms, hail and lightning. Read more here

    Jo Farrow
    Jo Farrow | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-05-01 08:45:04 Valid: 01/05/2024 0600 - 02/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - 01-02 MAY 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...