Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The only thing I have regarding tge way ahead is timing of main thrust of cold.  Maybe it will surge as early as ECM or as yesterday's 06z which would be marvellous, maybe not as we may see a first swipe with reload to follow (hence UKMO model not botheting me too much) but the more I see the more I feel comfortable that a 'major' outbreak of cold is coming in Jan, and it won't be for only a few days either I suggest.

of interest the angle of attacks suggested could bring very impressive snowfall with it too.

 

BFTP

[weatherguy]

Could be a sig snow event with the 6z GFS - highly likely there'd be some instability generated within that feature at short notice

Edited December 30, 2016 by weatherguy

[Derbyshire Snow]

13 minutes ago, mulzy said:

All FI of course but I'm loving the trough disruption to the west of Greenland at 156h from the 6z GFS

agreed, one of the best ways to sustained cold in North west Europe is trough disruption to the west of Greenland and heights usually  developing strongly over the Greenland area. This can be an excellent indicator to a sustained northerly over our area of the world. We still need our share of luck but the percentages for a long cold spell are much better.  Excellent looking run

Edited December 30, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[IDO]

You can see how the jet is trying to flatten the pattern on the 06z compared to the 0z; fine margins:

06z   0z:

Edited December 30, 2016 by IDO

[Snowman.]

8 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

Could be a sig snow event with the 6z GFS - highly likely there'd be some instability generated within that feature at short notice

Looks to me like cold rain for lower levels. The 6z doesn't bring the v cold air at all.

 

Obviously far out in FI and they share similar pressure patterns, but the deep low that comes down to give us the northerly feed throws warmer air in front of it. But the high pressure is further north and may give us a better chance of an easterly. Just variations in the theme.

Edited December 30, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[karyo]

The second northerly in the 6z is much less cold than in the 0z. The problem is that the low pressure system to the north of us is too deep and full of mild sectors making everything too marginal.

 

I know many of you are dreaming of the bitter easterly that may follow but my focus is the 2nd reload from the north which is coming into the semi reliable timeframe.

[Polar Maritime]

Snow showers pushing South from the North on the 6z by the 7th. Flow turning N/Ely with -5/6/7 uppers over the UK.

 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Day 10]

18 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

These differences between the UKM and GFS so early are stark... Both have been consistent so one will be left with egg on its face and it's tail firmly between its legs.

 

I really can't see both ECM and GFS both being wrong at such a short timeframe.

 

 

 

Yes as many have already stated on here this morning the UKMO still not on board, here are the latest charts for the 3rd Jan to compare:

Who will be right?

Edited December 30, 2016 by Day 10

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Snow showers pushing South from the North on the 6z by the 7th.

 

Snow showers for a time then sleet and rain.

[nick sussex]

Amen for the GFS 06hrs run not following the UKMO. Decision time this evening given the timeframes we should get agreement then. 

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, IDO said:

You can see how the jet is trying to flatten the pattern on the 06z compared to the 0z; fine margins:

06z   0z:

 

Relating to your earlier point on the GEFS, expecting the post day 8 members (when their resolution drops off) to resolve a split flow jet is asking a bit much?   The eps drop resolution at day 10 (to a level higher than the GEFS members ) so I would be more inclined to take their opinion in the extended at the moment as there is quite a lot going on days 8/10 re the split flow. 

[Polar Maritime]

Some very cold air to our East into the run. Certainly another cold wintry 6z outlook.. And another variation of many to take note of. 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Scandinavian High.]

Maybe some snow for south January is looking cold and wintery.

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Relating to your earlier point on the GEFS, expecting the post day 8 members (when their resolution drops off) to resolve a split flow jet is asking a bit much?   The eps drop resolution at day 10 (to a level higher than the GEFS members ) so I would be more inclined to take their opinion in the extended at the moment as there is quite a lot going on days 8/10 re the split flow. 

I agree, just another option on the table, we saw with the 06z from yesterday that it can churn out some weird and wonderful output. So really JFF after D7 on the 06z run.

My thoughts are a cold first half of January at least; how wintry remains elusive.

[Ali1977]

Well another good run for the GFS, no extremes but still a cold first few weeks of Jan with the possibility of snow. Nearly a frigid Beast in FI but this run it just skirts southern U.K.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

And gfs6z is fantastic and shows why there is so much riding on the earlier crucial timeframe!! Plenty of snow and ice on offer for most of the UK.REALLY happy it hasnt jumped onto the ukmo evolution.

Meto update awaited with interest.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

My thoughts are a cold first half of January at least; how wintry remains elusive.

Sensible 

even the 06z having looked like it was going awry manages to create a very wintry period with snowcover almost countrywide.

[Snowman.]

Oh man the ending of the 6z is just a tease! Classic easterly setting up there would love to see it.

All for fun but I really do believe that an easterly shot around mid Jan has a chance!

[Seasonality]

FI, yes, but another bitter 06z. Getting very cold even by central and eastern European standards. And a stunning end to the run. I see a usual suspect was trying to talk down this run but seriously if you think this is a downgrade you need your head examined 

 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Seasonality

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs 6z another fantastic run with snow moving south through the uk in 7 days time :-)

 

[Purga]

Another good run from GFS 06z with a super tease at the far end of FI

[Faronstream]

Another fantastic run from the GFS ( 06Z). Right now both ECM and GFS agrees on very cold upper air from the north( especially here) for 5th to 7th January with high pressure expanding in over Scandinavia for at least some couple of days

[Paul_1978]

One of the main differences I can see so far is that by T+195, the Azores low is a lot further south than on the 00z, and as the run progresses to T+252 it still remains a lot further south than on the previous run. By T+264 (10th Jan), the 06z is completely different to the 00z but somehow we manage to still salvage an easterly right at the end.

[swfc]

Pretty good start today model wise altho the ukmo seems for some to be of major concern.Imo the only thing i see is things turning colder"maybe much colder" with maybe some wintry precipitation.The main thing tho is the atlantic is totally snookered and that itself leaves many cold options going into january imo!!!

[Derbyshire Snow]

that was a classic run on how to obtain severe cold for the British Isles. The period around t135 , the trough disruption to the west of Greenland allowed most of the remainder of this run to pan out in to some sustained cold and what a result at the end , and very feasible if the mid run behaves.