Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[mulzy]

UKMO 144 - wetter format

We desperately need that incoming Atlantic low to disrupt.

[MR EXTREMES]

gfs wants greenland and iceland area  not a  bad place for a block

[Weathizard]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

Because I am choosing to ignore the GFS . It is consistently garbage in modelling the weather in our islands when blocking is forecast. It always has been, upgrades included.

Then the ECM must also be garbage as 38 of its ensemble suite and this mornings OP went the same route as the GFS?

 

Urge calm until we've seen the ensemble suites and the ECM, this could be a massively outlier for all we know right now, take each run as it comes.

[MR EXTREMES]

and 192 getting there good but slower run

[ArHu3]

1 minute ago, MR EXTREMES said:

gfs wants greenland and iceland area  not a  bad place for a block

Gem is going for Greenland, this winter GEM has been rather conservative and flat, so it's nice to see it trying

[Cheshire Freeze]

This FI is either going to be a classic or a massive disappointment given what we see at 192..

[MR EXTREMES]

Just now, ArHu3 said:

Gem is going for Greenland, this winter GEM has been rather conservative and flat, so it's nice to see it trying

big positive from the gem i agree been awful for couple of days.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

This FI is either going to be a classic or a massive disappointment given what we see at 192..

Need that high to close off and see energy going underneath 

Edited December 30, 2016 by karlos1983

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, MR EXTREMES said:

and 192 getting there good but slower run

Well now I'm totally baffled. There so much going on in the Atlantic, to the north, to the east ... most routes still seem to lead to cold, but there is a fear that will simply get stuck in the finger of heights, as we did at the start of December. Help please!!!!

[Mucka]

Just now, CreweCold said:

This FI is either going to be a classic or a massive disappointment given what we see at 192..

Trough sinking South into Europe, ridge building into the Arctic - classic (just a delayed one)

[Banbury]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Because I am choosing to ignore the GFS . It is consistently garbage in modelling the weather in our islands when blocking is forecast. It always has been, upgrades included.

Would you include the ECM in that then ? Your argument there doesn't quite stack up

[Captain Shortwave]

11 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

and 192 getting there good but slower run

Just for fun but the 12z is probably going to produce a pretty spectacular low resolution output;

Strong ridging in the Atlantic and through Alaska, also there is a surface ridge over the north of Scandinavia which is starting to appear, a very cold easterly following from around day 10 onwards. Not that it means much given the disagreement at around 3 days out. 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Singularity]

Is it just me or is this GFS 12z mimicking the 12z ECM of yesterday?

A very similar theme going on. UKMO still essentially the oddball in wanting to have the Atlantic trough pick up the low by the Azores... still possible it would slip free again and act like a secondary low from a disrupting trough against the Scandi ridge. More risky than the GFS version though.

[mother nature rocks]

Every time!!!! It's one run and again the toys are coming out for no reason. The 00z and 06z were great as was the ECM. So now the GFS throws out a different package the razor blades appear. Look later to see where it fits in the ensembles as it may well be an outlier. 

 

No need to feel downbeat YET! It hasn't actually happened!!

MNR

[Ali1977]

This actually could be something way better than the 06z and possible a very cold run later on. Beast anyone?

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Would you include the ECM in that then ? Your argument there doesn't quite stack up

No, because the ECM is not consistently garbage.

[karlos1983]

That's a confusing chart!

Heights over scandi and Iceland ish 

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This actually could be something way better than the 06z and possible a very cold run later on. Beast anyone?

Yes, the beast is prowling closer...

[SMU]

Afternoon All 

just a short text from me as limited time-

* The UKMO once again becomes the slayer of the GFS & soon to roll out ECM- this is why some of us didnt go into ramp mode this morning knowing that there was a high likely hood that the UKmet run was correct - 

perspective wise thats the ECM + 38 members plus the 00z/06z GFS & most of both ensemble suites -

NEVER DISS THE UKMO again-

* Where that leaves us isnt the usual default to mild but UKMO looks promising at 144 building a cold scandi ridge with the UK possibly to far east- lets see what the 168 looks like-

* We also have the GFS trying to still build heights NW to iceland & create a scandi high that way -

So model entropy at record levels today- I would suggest that the UKMO solution us around 70/30 in favour with an EXPECTED quick swing in its favour from the ECM

* At least cold from both scenarios is very much on the table!!

Motto: never discount UKMO raw..

Edited December 30, 2016 by Steve Murr

[bobbydog]

13 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Not sure this is a bad thing yet, OK it takes longer but that ridge is holding on...

Not only is it holding on, it's potentially becoming an easterly....

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, mother nature rocks said:

Every time!!!! It's one run and again the toys are coming out for no reason. The 00z and 06z were great as was the ECM. So now the GFS throws out a different package the razor blades appear. Look later to see where it fits in the ensembles as it may well be an outlier. 

 

No need to feel downbeat YET! It hasn't actually happened!!

MNR

Other than my little tantrum (which I explained as being down to over expectation on my part) I am amazed how calm it has stayed in here!

You are right, it is just one run that needs to be taken in perspective but it should also be recognised that UKMO is not just one run, it is several and the GFS moved toward it this afternoon. That would be the calm analytical view.

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon All 

just a short text from me as limited time-

* The UKMO once again becomes the slayer of the GFS & soon to roll out ECM- this is why some of us didnt go into ramp mode this morning knowing that there was a high likely hood that the UKmet run was correct - 

perspective wise thats the ECM + 38 members plus the 00z/06z GFS & most of both ensemble suites -

NEVER DISS THE UKMO again-

* Where that leaves us isnt the usual default to mild but UKMO looks promising at 144 building a cold scandi ridge with the UK possibly to far east- lets see what the 168 looks like-

* We also have the GFS trying to still build heights NW to iceland & create a scandi high that way -

So model entropy at record levels today- I would suggest that the UKMO solution us around 70/30 in favour with a quick swing in its favour from the ECM

* At least cold from both scenarios is very much on the table!!

Motto: never discount UKMO raw..

Of course, none of the above have verified yet so no medals until they cross the finish line... still time for change...

[Weathizard]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon All 

just a short text from me as limited time-

* The UKMO once again becomes the slayer of the GFS & soon to roll out ECM- this is why some of us didnt go into ramp mode this morning knowing that there was a high likely hood that the UKmet run was correct - 

perspective wise thats the ECM + 38 members plus the 00z/06z GFS & most of both ensemble suites -

NEVER DISS THE UKMO again-

* Where that leaves us isnt the usual default to mild but UKMO looks promising at 144 building a cold scandi ridge with the UK possibly to far east- lets see what the 168 looks like-

* We also have the GFS trying to still build heights NW to iceland & create a scandi high that way -

So model entropy at record levels today- I would suggest that the UKMO solution us around 70/30 in favour with a quick swing in its favour from the ECM

* At least cold from both scenarios is very much on the table!!

Motto: never discount UKMO raw..

I know you're an emotional poster Steve but put it into context, it's one GFS run that has HALF moved towards a UKMO like solution, i don't think anyone would dismiss the UKMO as such but until I've seen the GFS pick this signal up for a few runs and the EC12 I won't be making any rash judgments

 

edit: Just to clarify this isn't a dig at you, love your posts just respectfully disagree with you here.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Weathizard

[Day 10]

Purely for fun now but that easterly incoming is just a tad chilly

[Summer Sun]

Battleground snow event for some?