Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[SMU]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Split or displacement?

I can only see the zonal wind forecast @60N there is no associated charts

Edited January 4, 2017 by Steve Murr

[ArHu3]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I can only see the zonal wind forecast @60N there is no associated charts

And it was predicting a ssw early January before 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

I can only see the zonal wind forecast @60N there is no associated charts

cheers, no good charts showibg up on the feb monthly anom yet.

[Dennis]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I can only see the zonal wind forecast @60N there is no associated charts

on 10 Hpa 

[feb1991blizzard]

Its all flattened at 168.

[radiohead]

0Z ECM and GFS are in broad agreement on the pattern at T168 with the high pushing in. Uppers slightly colder on the GFS between T144 and T168, but -6 never gets below Scotland. Uppers on ECM don't drop below -4 during this period.

UKMO at T144 still a bit different but no longer looks like that low will dig as much SE as it did on the 12Z.

We are going to have to wait a bit longer for cold potential it seems.

Edited January 4, 2017 by radiohead

[Seasonality]

Kudos to @Steve Murr for his brilliant analysis over the last 48 hrs. Better cross model agreement at 144h from the 00z runs. Unsurprisingly perhaps the GFS still most progressive in flattening the cold over Europe as it begrudgingly joins the party but ECM and even more so UKMO keep the cold in place. And even gfs showing snow chances for UK later on. If this verifies then I might be lucky enough to see the River Vistula frozen over, in central Warsaw it is wider than the Thames in central London and when solid white with thick rough ice it is a lovely sight. Going to be a cull of the weaker wildlife (and city vermin like pigeons on the up side) though and a worry for the elderly. Temperatures could drop below -20 Friday night into Saturday.  

*Edit. Went flatter though from 168. Damn sliw smartphone typing. Still room for adjustment for though.

*Edit 2. Met Office and BBC weather still going for sub zero weather in Central Europe all the way out to 10 days so UKMO obviously confident of cold remaining in place.

Edited January 4, 2017 by Seasonality

[radiohead]

0Z ECM finally delivers some cold air for us from the northwest in FI at T216.

GFS is roughly similar at this time too.

Edited January 4, 2017 by radiohead

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Kudos to @Steve Murr for his brilliant analysis over the last 48 hrs. Better cross model agreement at 144h from the 00z runs. Unsurprisingly perhaps the GFS still most progressive in flattening the cold over Europe as it begrudgingly joins the party but ECM and even more so UKMO keep the cold in place. And even gfs showing snow chances for UK later on. If this verifies then I might be lucky enough to see the River Vistula frozen over, in central Warsaw it is wider than the Thames in central London and when solid white with thick rough ice it is a lovely sight. Going to be a cull of the weaker wildlife (and city vermin like pigeons on the up side) though and a worry for the elderly. Temperatures could drop below -20 Friday night into Saturday. 

 

 

 

By party I assume to mean the zonal party as the ecm T192 chart has westerly 180Kt jet blowing straight across Scotland.

[Seasonality]

Just now, knocker said:

By party I assume to mean the zonal party as the ecm T192 chart has westerly 180Kt jet blowing straight across Scotland.

Well yes knocker I was a little too keen at 144h. Hence why I edited my post.

[Duane S.]

Wrong thread I know but if this verifies, there will be reprocussions, big ones, for the currently dominate vortex. 

[snowking]

7 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Wrong thread I know but if this verifies, there will be reprocussions, big ones, for the currently dominate vortex. 

Impressive indeed and most likely driven by the ridging into Scandinavia:

The only thing that I am rather wary of is the disconnect there seems to have been so far between the upper strat and the tropospheric vortex, but you would hope that given the huge downwelling downtick in zonal winds forecast there should be at least some impact towards the end of the month in our humble layer of the atmosphere

Edited January 4, 2017 by snowking

[knocker]

nothing much new

But interesting

[Radiating Dendrite]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

nothing much new

But interesting

Why is this interesting Knocker? What is it showing?

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Why is this interesting Knocker? What is it showing?

The later 100mb chart is showing ridging/HP to the NE/E of the UK with LP to the south. The 500mb anomaly charts have also hinted at this on a couple of recent runs. One way to a colder evolution down the line is developing high pressure to the NE and with LP centred to the SE/S thus CAA from the east. I'm not for one minute saying this is going to happen based on this scanty evidence but it's interesting enough to keep an eye on. IMO of course.

[Seasonality]

24 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

Edited January 4, 2017 by Seasonality
delete

[Radiating Dendrite]

Thanks for the explanation Knocker. Hopefully we will see something similar modelled in the operationals soon.

[knocker]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Anyone else have the forum go down? Some expert commentary on these two would be appreciated knocker.

My original got lost. For what it's worth I have now replied.

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

The later 100mb chart is showing ridging/HP to the NE/E of the UK with LP to the south. The 500mb anomaly charts have also hinted at this on a couple of recent runs. One way to a colder evolution down the line is developing high pressure to the NE and with LP centred to the SE/S thus CAA from the east. I'm not for one minute saying this is going to happen based on this scanty evidence but it's interesting enough to keep an eye on. IMO of course.

So if, big if, it did happen, the colder outbreak further east would certainly be helpful. At least it wouldn't be a toothless easterly.

[WINTRY WALES]

Morning guys

was there more correction with the GFS model aligning to the UKMO as per Mr murr's recent analysis this morning ??

Thanjs

WW

[Alekos]

2 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Morning guys

was there more correction with the GFS model aligning to the UKMO as per Mr murr's recent analysis this morning ??

Thanjs

WW

Hi no I think it has gone the other way with more Atlantic for Europe !

[Seasonality]

ECM seems to be on the milder side compared to the mean towards the end of its 00z run. I think the UKMO theme of colder in Europe moving forward could just be the form horse, being positive for the UK if any easterly regime emerges.

[Summer Sun]

 

[bluearmy]

For Nick s. - at day 9 now!

 

Impossible to know how transitory any troughing will actualky be but the ens charts are keen to hold it in place (hopefully not due to a timing issue between members)

at first glance the new eps are colder than previous runs day 10/15 under the cyclonic n flow (nw/n/ne)

Edited January 4, 2017 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

For Nick s. - at day 9 now!

 

Impossible to know how transitory any troughing will actualky be but the ens charts are keen to hold it in place (hopefully not due to a timing issue between members)

at first glance the new eps are colder than previous runs day 10/15 under the cyclonic n flow

And it drops further into Europe at d10, does this pattern persist d10-15 and any sign of -ve anoms backing west on current eps?