Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Man With Beard]

Quite a few Scandi Highs and "Scuero" Highs by T168 on the ECM ensembles this morning, would you believe!! 

Just realised I can upload the images, here's a taster:

I would stress this only represents maybe 20-30% of the 51 options. General story is - ensembles are all over the place once again even quite early in the run

 

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Quite a few Scandi Highs and "Scuero" Highs by T168 on the ECM ensembles this morning, would you believe!! 

Just realised I can upload the images, here's a taster:

 

I would stress this only represents maybe 20-30% of the 51 options. General story is - ensembles are all over the place once again even quite early in the run

 

I’ve always liked an under dog MWB , Sweden landed me £250 last night, nobody saw that coming 

cheers for highlighting, gives us something to look out for in future runs. 

Complicated setups like these can very often throw out surprises, fair bit of water to go under the bridge yet I feel. 

[booferking]

The difference across the STATES is stark @144 ECM is flat the other two are amplified. Whats the us forecasters saying @nick sussex

[knocker]

The GEFS and EPS anomalies continue with the theme of yesterday evening.

Keeping it short the major players in the Atlantic arena are the trough in NE North America, the ridge into southern Greenland and the Scandinavian trough. Thus still two energy flows, one around N. Greenland east to the Scandinavian trough and the main one south of the American trough giving a westerly upper flow over the UK with the precise direction remaining dependent on any strong ridging north from the HP to our SW  So remaining unsettled is the percentage play but the detail still up for grabs with a few options on the table which the det' runs will need to sort.

[Paul_1978]

47 minutes ago, jvenge said:

The ECM EPS, although never quite sold on a deeply negative NAO, is sending both the AO and NAO to neutral and then onto slightly positive conditions around the 25th or so.

Hmmm not strictly true that Jvenge. One rogue AO member is positive - the rest are very much in negative territory.

As regards NAO lots of scatter, but still generally mainly remaining in negative territory.

Edited November 14, 2017 by Paul_1978

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Rather worryingly the Icon has gone mild folks 

Time to dig out the BOM, perhaps?

[jvenge]

3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Hmmm not strictly true that Jvenge. One rogue AO member is positive - the rest are very much in negative territory.

As regards NAO lots of scatter, but still generally mainly remaining in negative territory.

I'll send you what I'm looking at in private, since they aren't too happy about posting ECM stuff publicly.

[northwestsnow]

Such a shame to see that great big blocking high over Greenland come to nothing for us from a cold POV.

GFS6z continues on its not so merry path for coldies ...

[bluearmy]

AO watch from the 00z

GFS: - 5

GEFS: -4.3

EC: -3.5

EPS: -3

GENS: -3

[NorthYorksWeather]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Such a shame to see that great big blocking high over Greenland come to nothing for us from a cold POV.

GFS6z continues on its not so merry path for coldies ...

Yes very frustrating, that pesky area of high pressure over central Europe!

On a more positive note, at least the Scottish Highlands look set for a pasting based on current runs.

 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

AO watch from the 00z

GFS: - 5

GEFS: -4.3

EC: -3.5

EPS: -3

GENS: -3

They are lovely numbers but unfortunately it doesnt look (at this juncture) like doing us much good in terms of getting the cold to our latitude Blue- 6z continuing with the theme of Atlantic lows destroying any hopes of retrogression.

[swfc]

Does look as tho getting lower heights into southern Europe are as likely as a lottery win!! Still open to change but things do look unsettled and wet looking at the gfs 6Z

[northwestsnow]

6z is pretty hideous it has to be said, that low just sits next to the British Isles spinning wind and rain, initially over scotland but eventually the rest of us.

Hope its wrong but ...

[Snowman.]

UKMO isn't that bad actually especially when compared to the GFS for heights in Central Eastern Europe.

 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

6z is pretty hideous it has to be said, that low just sits next to the British Isles spinning wind and rain, initially over scotland but eventually the rest of us.

Hope its wrong but ...

On the other hand Pressure and Heights are lowering over Europe.

[swfc]

Just to add ecm does have the same low as gfs 6Z at 240hrs.there is a strong atlantic ridge on ecm granted. Not a great start to the day but onwards and upwards. Uto

[Snowy Hibbo]

A sub-Seasonal update.... looking at model outlooks.

This is the SubX group of models, with the various models that make it up.

18-24 Nov

The MME mean shows a Greenland high and troughing over the UK and Continental Europe.

25th Nov - Dec 1st

The MME mean shows a similar setup from the previous week. A Greenland high and troughing over U.K and Continental Europe.

2-8 Dec

The MME mean shows a high over Greenland again and troughing over the UK region.

I am adding the CFS Weeklies for the Week 5 & 6 periods.

12-18 Dec

19-25 Dec

Similar setup both weeks, Euro high with UK somewhat in between the euro high and Iceland trough.

And the EC46 model to wrap it up.

14-20 Nov

This week, the model shows a ridge over the Atlantic, going towards the U.K. Troughing in the Scandi region and over Italy.

21-27 Nov

Next week, Greenland ridging comes over the UK. Troughing over Eastern Europe.

28 Nov - 4 Dec

Troughing over Iceland and ridging in the Mediterranean.

5-11 Dec

Troughing south of Greenland, and a Euro ridging pattern is present.

looks interesting....

[Jonan92]

Very odd looking maps at the end of the run, don't you think? Not defined strong lows, strong heights, everything a little scattered around

[Snowy Hibbo]

45 minutes ago, jvenge said:

I'll send you what I'm looking at in private, since they aren't too happy about posting ECM stuff publicly.

You mean WxBell? You are allowed to post that stuff on a forum. Lots of people do it....

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

Very odd looking maps at the end of the run, don't you think? Not defined strong lows, strong heights, everything a little scattered around

Looks awful to me from a coldies POV- not a good run from 6z - a lot of wind and rain

Matt Hugo tweeting about quite a large uptick in zonal wind speeds into December.

we really are hoping GFS is sniffing the wrong progression or its batten down the hatches time, EC is much better than any of the GFS runs since last night- METO update will be more revealing but looking at GFS the notion of mainly dry and cold weather for the uk doesnt match up, whatsoever.

Edited November 14, 2017 by northwestsnow

[jvenge]

3 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

You mean WxBell? You are allowed to post that stuff on a forum. Lots of people do it....

From Weatherbell.

Note: Any maps, images or charts from ECMWF (License) may never be posted or re-distributed (except for WMO-Essential). All other maps, images and charts from other models may be shared in moderation under the following conditions: The images may not be used for any commercial (revenue generating) purpose including, but not limited to, ad-supported websites or private consulting. Any images must be attributed to WeatherBell Analytics. 

The teleconnections doesn't fall under WMO essential :-) The WMO essential consists of some stuff related to the det run and some from the EPS, but mostly heights, anomalies, 850 temperatures, etc. Nothing that someone else doesn't receive quicker from Meteociel or somewhere else.

 

 

Edited November 14, 2017 by jvenge

[Man With Beard]

EC clusters: by T168, 29 out of 51 members placed in the control / op run cluster, so you'd have to back that at this point in time - which is basically a west based -NAO. 12 members build heights towards Scandi and 10 have a strong block over the Atlantic - so that's 22 members which look colder for the UK.

However, the main cluster splits at T192, with the control cluster more east based -NAO by T216 (11 members), and the op cluster becoming a Greenland ridge but still more west based -NAO.

[karyo]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks awful to me from a coldies POV- not a good run from 6z - a lot of wind and rain

Matt Hugo tweeting about quite a large uptick in zonal wind speeds into December.

we really are hoping GFS is sniffing the wrong progression or its batten down the hatches time, EC is much better than any of the GFS runs since last night- METO update will be more revealing but looking at GFS the notion of mainly dry and cold weather for the uk doesnt match up, whatsoever.

So far there have been a disconnect between the cooling stratosphere but inevitably those stronger zonal winds will filter down to the troposphere. The window of opportunity for a northerly outbreak is closing. I was hoping that the disconnect would continue for a while longer but things are not looking good now.

If this happens, we will have to wait for a stratospheric warming later in winter to change the pattern. How many times have we heard this before?

Edited November 14, 2017 by karyo

[Snowy Hibbo]

16 minutes ago, jvenge said:

From Weatherbell.

Note: Any maps, images or charts from ECMWF (License) may never be posted or re-distributed (except for WMO-Essential). All other maps, images and charts from other models may be shared in moderation under the following conditions: The images may not be used for any commercial (revenue generating) purpose including, but not limited to, ad-supported websites or private consulting. Any images must be attributed to WeatherBell Analytics. 

The teleconnections doesn't fall under WMO essential :-) The WMO essential consists of some stuff related to the det run and some from the EPS, but mostly heights, anomalies, 850 temperatures, etc. Nothing that someone else doesn't receive quicker from Meteociel or somewhere else.

 

 

Never stopped me, when I had it. EC doesn't care about forums, they just care if some commercial entity is racking in money from their products, that they shouldn't be. 

I do like the WMO programs, they give me free C3S and S2S data, so I ain't complaining

[The PIT]

I guess T144 is make or break point. Fingers crossed for a return to colder modelling.