Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[LRD]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Dare I say... BOOOOOM!!!!

Let's get it to 48 hours rather than 240!

PS  I tried to copy the URL and present it as an image but it wouldn't let me

[Frosty.]

Well the Ecm 12z gives the UK a double whammy of cold and beyond day ten make that a triple..this run oozes wintry potential longer term and we are in with a shot of some fantastic wintry weather during the weeks ahead!☺?????

Edited November 26, 2017 by Frosty.

[Weather-history]

10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well you couldn't make that up...

Shortwave spoiler around Iceland 

Winds up into a monster

Edited November 26, 2017 by Weather-history

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It won't be a snowmaker...develops too much, need it to be a much weaker system and sink SSE. All it does is serve to slow the progression down

Proper Greenland blocking now back at day 10 (a very good chart btw)

Sinks into cold air and dead cold air back around.... plenty of snow. A little less intense would be grand

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

reload after reload after reload

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Ends on a high note.

And lots to be both amused/hopeful.

Every current synoptic just leads us to cold.....

Its like output wants to await blood freezing cold b4 its gets there...

And in the mean-time have ya starters.

Its going to be our year.....

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It won't be a snowmaker...develops too much, need it to be a much weaker system and sink SSE. All it does is serve to slow the progression down

Proper Greenland blocking now back at day 10 (a very good chart btw)

All well and good but is the slayer correct at 120?

Hopefully not!

[lorenzo]

It does get a little sporty.

If Old Man Winter wants to keep opening and shutting the freezer door, then am cool with that..

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Sinks into cold air and dead cold air back around.... plenty of snow. A little less intense would be grand

You won't get snow with these uppers from a maritime source

Unless you live on a Scottish mountain.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, CreweCold said:

You won't get snow with these uppers from a maritime source

Unless you live on a Scottish mountain.

Yes, needs to be a shallower feature, that brings in westerly winds, would be 10C in the south for a time, but it is at 240

[comet]

4 hours ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

A very good further outlook from Exeter. Does anyone who watched the weather for the week ahead on the Beeb, just now, though, think like me, that they were underestimating the cold for later this week or do you think they are on the money. Just seemes that 6 or 7c for much of central and South East England on Wednesday and Thursday seems a bit generous  given the synoptic and likely airmass at that time ?

generally speaking away from cities and coastal areas a good rule of thumb from late November to late January is add 10c to the upper 850 temps. For example if you have 850's of -6c then the surface temps will be around 4c. It works pretty well for my area which is about 75m above sea level. Inversions are a different matter of course and also once you get into February the lapse rates go up so by mid Feb its around +12 and +13c at end of Feb. Television forecasts always seem to over do temps for some reason or other.

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

You won't get snow with these uppers from a maritime source

Unless you live on a Scottish mountain.

Again it sinks into cold air so frontal snow on the front edge then it quickly pulls cold air back round.... by the next frame 

[chris55]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

You won't get snow with these uppers from a maritime source

Unless you live on a Scottish mountain.

You do realise this chart is for the 6th December yes? Therefore the conversation is irrelivent. 

[bluearmy]

The appearance of that system at day 9 is advertised on the 00z eps clusters and spreads. It remains a possibility within the overall evolution but it could easily be a weaker feature that sinks further to the ŵest or it may not be there at all tomorrow!  

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

You do realise this chart is for the 6th December yes? Therefore the conversation is irrelivent. 

Quite.

I was replying to someone who said the low was a snow maker.

You'd know that if you had read the thread properly.

[knocker]

All this talk of proper Greenland blocking I thought I might mention the trough ejected from the Eastern Seaboard towards the end of the run that zips east south of Greenland on strong jet and then descends south east  to bring severe gales to Scotland at the end of the run. Just saying

Edited November 26, 2017 by knocker

[A Frayed Knot]

Well that country file forecast from Mr Avery was as just as promising as a WET FART in a milk bottle .

[pureasthedriven]

2 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Well that country file forecast from Mr Avery was as just as promising as a WET FART in a milk bottle .

What, a bit like my favourite and most accurate ‘model’?! ?

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Well that country file forecast from Mr Avery was as just as promising as a WET FART in a milk bottle .

More of a stinker than a stonker then..just like the ukmo 12z!

I'm very positive about wintry prospects as I'm sure are many following today's runs.☺???

Edited November 26, 2017 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Well that country file forecast from Mr Avery was as just as promising as a WET FART in a milk bottle .

Not one I've heard before .................

tbh, I'm not sure that an amplification at the beginning of December was ever supposed to deliver - this one has crept up on us over the past 36 hours. Always looked like the period around the 7th Dec was the timescale on the ens. anyway, we will take what we can get and won't be bothered if this one doesn't 'bring home the bacon' !

[Ali1977]

Any forecast this next few days won't really focus on the potential real cold, this doesn't get going till next Sunday or Monday. If these charts are showing come Wednesday then you'll Defo have more of a mention on the BBC weeklies - if their models agree that is. 

Edited November 26, 2017 by Ali1977

[bobbydog]

18 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

You won't get snow with these uppers from a maritime source

Unless you live on a Scottish mountain.

the low itself won't be a snowmaker but what comes after... once it passes through it would drag very cold air down with it, would it not?

Edited November 26, 2017 by bobbydog

[snowbunting]

What an end to the ECM... deep fast developing low dragging down colder air. Imagine if it waters down that scenario?

Model run after model run showing cold outbreaks. 

 

 

[Dennis]

this will be freaky 

[PLANET THANET]

Just now, Dennis said:

this will be freaky 

sorry but why ?

[Dennis]

Just now, PLANET THANET said:

sorry but why ?

bcs its a dive in zonal winds (breaks the Polarvortex activity )