Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I'm not jumping into the boat yet, I jumped in way to early like last year and got let down at the last minute, not to mention that technically speaking from a personal view, it's way to early for anything wintry in terms of snow (not frosts) as usually this time of year it's a blink and you will miss it affair. While it's a start and a very good start, I urge caution 

[blizzard81]

We await the ecm with much anticipation. 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

I'm not jumping into the boat yet, I jumped in way to early like last year and got let down at the last minute, not to mention that technically speaking from a personal view, it's way to early for anything wintry in terms of snow (not frosts) as usually this time of year it's a blink and you will miss it affair. While it's a start and a very good start, I urge caution 

And, should all else fail, there's always the trusty NAVGEM...it always delivers the goods!

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

I'm not jumping into the boat yet, I jumped in way to early like last year and got let down at the last minute, not to mention that technically speaking from a personal view, it's way to early for anything wintry in terms of snow (not frosts) as usually this time of year it's a blink and you will miss it affair. While it's a start and a very good start, I urge caution 

We are just posting what is showing in the charts Surrey

BIG caution yes

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Indeed, the setup is a peach, if it was January and we had it then bloody hell the forum would be in melt down. It's almost like a dreamy chart or so it feels given the past few winters. 

Certainly beats the mild dross... 

 

Edited October 23, 2017 by Surrey

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, booferking said:

Pretty tasty Northerly if the GFS is to be believed .  Hopefully we can get these chart in the more reliable frame 

Some x-rated charts on the GFS!!! However I refer to my post earlier in the day on the EC clusters - small differences around Greenland are everything in these scenarios.

[booferking]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Some x-rated charts on the GFS!!! However I refer to my post earlier in the day on the EC clusters - small differences around Greenland are everything in these scenarios.

Yep take these charts with extreme caution until we have full agreement but nice to look at all the same so early in the season.

[weirpig]

 

R

Edited October 23, 2017 by weirpig
Phone playing up

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

I couldn't find the analysis chart but found the earliest one for that day,that will take some beating

 

Yes although there was a chart very similar churned out the other day by the GFS but of course the uppers weren't as potent as its too early.

[Allseasons-Si]

14 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Started early this season  will be a nice precursor if it comes off  ecm  takes the northly more to the east 

That's at 144 hrs Weirpig,the gfs doesn't show it until 192 hrs onwards.

at 168 hrs,you can see it forming just SW of Iceland.

192,here she comes

Edited October 23, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That's at 144 hrs Weirpig,the gfs does't show it until 192 hrs onwards.

at 168 hrs,you can see it forming just SW of Iceland.

192,here she comes

That 192 doesn't look very good to me, it will be a blink and youll miss it clipping Scotland me thinks with any cold being on the edge of the high.

[tight isobar]

Ec-taking the more tedious route...

But barking up the rite tree... 

Northerly still on course on this run.... 

[weirpig]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That's at 144 hrs Weirpig,the gfs doesn't show it until 192 hrs onwards.

at 168 hrs,you can see it forming just SW of Iceland.

192,here she comes

Yes thanks deleted bloody phone 

[weirpig]

Mmm gets there sort off not as potent as the gfs  brief ?

Edited October 23, 2017 by weirpig

[Sperrin]

12z ECM looking more promising than the 0z at 192.

[feb1991blizzard]

Even worse than I thought, looks like by 240 it will be starting to tee up for another go but there's the pattern we have become accustomed to over the last few years, they keep disappearing only for another one waiting in the wings 100hrs after then when that gets anywhere near 144, that disappears as well and so on.

[knocker]

Well if the ecm turns out to be correct, which of course it will not at this range, Halloween would be a washout in most areas. with fronts impacting the NW by 12 spreading to Scotland and most of England in the next 12 hours bringing much rain and possible westerly gales.

[weirpig]

240z leaves us in a cool north westerly flow  

 

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That 192 doesn't look very good to me, it will be a blink and youll miss it clipping Scotland me thinks with any cold being on the edge of the high.

It wasn't even a blink and miss it affair either

lets just say though that it is better than looking at westerlies screaming in

 

[Allseasons-Si]

And.....do we have to resort to the jma,it looks better with heights going up to the west side of Greenland,could be west based -nao though(as in trough going into the Atlantic).

Edited October 23, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

240z leaves us in a cool north westerly flow  

 

 

 

Cold, wet and windy? Yippeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

[Summer Sun]

It is very much a case of GFS v ECM on the 850's front

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

It is very much a case of GFS v ECM on the 850's front

Certainly is....

The begining of the battle for verification season begins.

And as per-1 will prove the more fruitful.

The possible early arctic outbreak still has a lot of road to travel...

Lets see who gets first blood..ecm/gfs.

Certainly an' intresting start.....

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

I'm not jumping into the boat yet, I jumped in way to early like last year and got let down at the last minute, not to mention that technically speaking from a personal view, it's way to early for anything wintry in terms of snow (not frosts) as usually this time of year it's a blink and you will miss it affair. While it's a start and a very good start, I urge caution 

Baffled by this, what difference does it matter if it’s November or February if the synoptic is right there is no impact on longevity furthermore we have lengthening nights on our side, it is just unusual for November to feature such synoptics not that they’ve materialised yet. While the polar regions cool dramatically at this time of year this is not so for mid latitudes. This is often the stormiest time of the year. If there is sufficient cold air available as advertised by GFS 12z there would be wintriness in the south - albeit not the settling type in all probability. 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Baffled by this, what difference does it matter if it’s November or February if the synoptic is right there is no impact on longevity furthermore we have lengthening nights on our side, it is just unusual for November to feature such synoptics not that they’ve materialised yet. While the polar regions cool dramatically at this time of year this is not so for mid latitudes. This is often the stormiest time of the year. If there is sufficient cold air available as advertised by GFS 12z there would be wintriness in the south - albeit not the settling type in all probability. 

Because, in the good-old-days, soil temps and SSTs were much lower in February than they were in November...ergo, in November, rain/sleet off the North Sea - and any snow that did manage to fall usually melted on contact with the ground...

And - these days??!!