Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Frosty.]

Drumroll....Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean show an arctic blast later next week and the run ends wintry too!!..pretty good ???

[The Enforcer]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

This one? was unexpected great event here

No, it was definitely after the last significantly cold winter 2010/11 and was definitely a January. I think I recall Feb 2007 though.

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

I thought that one approached from the south-west and tracked pretty much due east. If it is the snow event I think it is, I seem to recall it happening on a Friday and it gave a reasonable covering here too. It's always been from the north-west since then and a failure every time due to inadequate dew points.

I thought it was a wedge of high pressure around western scandinavia that deflected and disrupted systems south east from the north west. But I could be wrong

[karlos1983]

I’ve taken inspiration from @nick sussex and decided to do a drawing of my own after that ecm. 

Apologies for messyness but I’m on the phone and suck at art ?

must add, if outside the semi burried area, you still do rather well, don’t threat! 

 

Edited December 2, 2017 by karlos1983

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

sadly being here 'darn darf', it'll probably rain first, so the best I can hope for is 'Puddle-Effect Snow' 

The ECM gives between 8 and 10 inches of snow for your area.

 

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Drumroll....Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean show an arctic blast later next week and the run ends wintry too!!..pretty good ???

Those means are brilliant. Especially the last 3 frames

Edited December 2, 2017 by LRD

[Tracy Flick]

7 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Because I wasn't round here since the big freezes of 2009 - 10 and 2013, is this what a big freeze looks like on the models especially the GFS and ECM ? 

Here's the 2010 archive to start:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=25&month=11&hour=0&year=2010&map=0&region=&mode=2&type=ncep

[Man With Beard]

Looking through the snow charts of the ECM op tonight, well can't get much snowier than that for England, several snow events between Thursday and Monday with the slider low being colossal for central areas.

The majority of ECM ensemble members now have some sort of snow event for this Thursday but the epicentre could be just about anywhere - some ensembles with monster totals for northern England. But really could be rain/snow for many.

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Drumroll....Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean show an arctic blast later next week and the run ends wintry too!!..pretty good ???

Looks jolly good for early winter, another wintry spell looks to be on the way after next midweek, most of us should see snow, it looks more potent than the cold snap just gone.

[snowbunting]

Take my metaphorical hat off to GFS for picking up this Nly blast in the Fl territory.. dropping the idea and then brought it into the frame in a more reasonable timeframe... 

Last time it did this in forcasting a cold run was 2010.

Think next weeks event will be memorable.

 

Enjoy snow lovers countrywide. 

 

 

 

[mulzy]

The eps control run very similar to the operational, viz. slider.

Best ECM of the season and best eps of the season too!

 

[bluearmy]

An undercut of cold behind a front that actually delivers a decent covering away from elevation??  Have to go back quite a few years for one of those 

[bluearmy]

Just now, mulzy said:

The eps control run very similar to the operational, viz. slider.

Best ECM of the season and best eps of the season too!

 

Yes I noted that too mulzy - it’s far too fragile a set up at that range to get over excited about but it’s currently the best supported direction of travel - the envelope is quite wide on the nw/se track of the system at the moment 

[Sparkiee storm]

A selection of potential snowfall charts across the country  

At from current charts, there looks a lot of it 

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

An undercut of cold behind a front that actually delivers a decent covering away from elevation??  Have to go back quite a few years for one of those 

December 1981?

[karlos1983]

It’s on like Donkey Kong

 

Edited December 2, 2017 by karlos1983

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Sparkiee storm said:

A selection of potential snowfall charts across the country  

At from current charts, there looks a lot of it 

 

 

Some of them show a decent Cheshire Gap streamer for us

[Allseasons-Si]

The op is slightly colder than the mean but i am not complaining,nice mean at 240 though and better than the gefs

[Man With Beard]

12 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’ve taken inspiration from @nick sussex and decided to do a drawing of my own after that ecm. 

Apologies for messyness but I’m on the phone and suck at art ?

must add, if outside the semi burried area, you still do rather well, don’t threat! 

 

Impressive Karlos. That's pretty much where the ECM has it on it's snow charts

[Sparkiee storm]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Some of them show a decent Cheshire Gap streamer for us

That's what I thought, could do quite well if it comes off like this  

[karlos1983]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Impressive Karlos. That's pretty much where the ECM has it on it's snow charts

Nice! Just followed the dam lines lol 

[knocker]

As the outputs are not without interest this evening a glance at the anomalies wont go amiss.

They are all very much in the same ball park upstream there and maybe some minor differences downstream and given the delicacy of the precise orientation of the pattern could impact to some extent on the interpretation by the det runs

Upstream we have the Siberian vortex, Aleutian low and strong Alaskan ridge into the Pole and, last but not least, to complete the amplified pattern in North America the active Canadian vortex with the associated trough in the east which plunges a fair way south. (two important energy sources, particularly the SE seaboard).

The key players downstream are the mid Atlantic HP and the lobe and trough running from northern Scandinavia into southern Europe just to the east of the UK. The orientation and intensity of these features, particularly the mid Atlantic ridge are important as that will influence the det, outputs as previously mentioned. The reason being there is a very strong jet running out of the base of the American trough and it swings around the ridge and south east into the vicinity of the UK transporting troughs with it along the way. As can be seen the the three don't quite agree on the precise alignment, but are pretty close, with the strong upper flow between NW and NNW which would portend some unsettled wintry weather with possible gales and snow and temps below average  but the detail is for the det runs to sort

Glancing briefly into the ext period we are losing the Siberian vortex but still ridging and positive anomalies over the Pole and the active Canadian vortex/trough and downstream much the same, perhaps not so amplified but remaining unsettled with temps below average.

Edited December 2, 2017 by knocker

[Met4Cast]

23 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’ve taken inspiration from @nick sussex and decided to do a drawing of my own after that ecm. 

Apologies for messyness but I’m on the phone and suck at art ?

must add, if outside the semi burried area, you still do rather well, don’t threat! 

 

You're massively underestimating the Medway snow shield with that one! 

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofWine said:

The extended eps to day 15 are slightly more encouraging if you like cold than this mornings suite......

Slight change From zonal full on

Almost time to get the nice vino out 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Danny* said:

You're massively underestimating the Medway snow shield with that one! 

Unfortunately I can only run at a fairly low resolution. Roughly 12 pints res. Not good for picking up local anomalies