Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Mokidugway]

26 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’ve taken inspiration from @nick sussex and decided to do a drawing of my own after that ecm. 

Apologies for messyness but I’m on the phone and suck at art ?

must add, if outside the semi burried area, you still do rather well, don’t threat! 

 

You're not Banksy are you 

[A.J]

24 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’ve taken inspiration from @nick sussex and decided to do a drawing of my own after that ecm. 

Apologies for messyness but I’m on the phone and suck at art ?

must add, if outside the semi burried area, you still do rather well, don’t threat! 

 

Very artistic bud.............I've had a look at the charts and here's my best guess.............for all NW members, guess whereabouts in the uk Karlos is? 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Unfortunately I can only run at a fairly low resolution. Roughly 12 pints res. Not good for picking up local anomalies 

We used to call them 'birds' when we young...

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Danny* said:

You're massively underestimating the Medway snow shield with that one! 

The model shows upwards of 10 inches of lying snow.

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Very artistic bud.............I've had a look at the charts and here's my best guess.............for all NW members, guess whereabouts in the uk Karlos is? 

Oh AJ that’s just cruel.... at least I won’t have far to go lol

ps that actually happened to us Dorset folk in 2009 when we were under a red warning for snow, and the wounds were deep counselling sessions are ongoing, but funding ran out when the Channel Islands stole our fun in 2013.

give us a break 

Edited December 2, 2017 by karlos1983

[Frosty.]

Just seen the weather for the week ahead, oh boy it shows the mother of all arctic northerly's towards the end of the week followed by lows sliding SE  into the cold pool with a risk of further snow..so, the dream charts we have been looking at could become reality! 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The model shows upwards of 10 inches of lying snow.

Anything in our neck of the woods feb? 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Just seen the weather for the week ahead, oh boy it shows the mother of all arctic northerly's towards the end of the week followed by lows sliding SE  into the cold pool with a risk of further snow..so, the dream charts we have been looking at could become reality! 

meto better upgrade that faulty update later tonight mate ..

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Anything in our neck of the woods feb? 

About 2 inches but literally a few miles East and South, it dramatically shoots up to 8 inches.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

About 2 inches but literally a few miles East and South, it dramatically shoots up to 8 inches.

I'm not greedy- that sounds great, thanks for that

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

About 2 inches but literally a few miles East and South, it dramatically shoots up to 8 inches.

Im not sure I trust those snow depths, Norwich shows 2cms, which if that ECM were to verify, would be significantly more than 2cms (more like 20cm)

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

About 2 inches but literally a few miles East and South, it dramatically shoots up to 8 inches.

Wouldn't worry anyway, as long as its not marginal, the models overdo the Manchester snow shield's effect.

[LRD]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

About 2 inches but literally a few miles East and South, it dramatically shoots up to 8 inches.

Oooooh, matron

Edited December 2, 2017 by LRD

[karlos1983]

Might not bother watching the 18z, We all know it’s going to show a northerly 

Smug life

 

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just seen the weather for the week ahead, oh boy it shows the mother of all arctic northerly's towards the end of the week followed by lows sliding SE  into the cold pool with a risk of further snow..so, the dream charts we have been looking at could become reality! 

Which channel Karl ??

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Might not bother watching the 18z, We all know it’s going to show a northerly 

Smug life

 

O dont say that Karlos- although i havent seen the beeb week ahead karl (frosty) says its brill.

So, with thatin mind the updated meto update overnight BETTER be an upgrade!!

[Chesil View]

21 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Oh AJ that’s just cruel.... at least I won’t have far to go lol

ps that actually happened to us Dorset folk in 2009 when we were under a red warning for snow, and the wounds were deep counselling sessions are ongoing, but funding ran out when the Channel Islands stole our fun in 2013.

give us a break 

Tell me about it Karlos I,m still having counselling for that particular sNOw event..

Edited December 2, 2017 by Broadmayne blizzard

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

O dont say that Karlos- although i havent seen the beeb week ahead karl (frosty) says its brill.

So, with thatin mind the updated meto update overnight BETTER be an upgrade!!

SS normally posts it in winter thread

[norfolksnow]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Just seen the weather for the week ahead, oh boy it shows the mother of all arctic northerly's towards the end of the week followed by lows sliding SE  into the cold pool with a risk of further snow..so, the dream charts we have been looking at could become reality! 

any link

[Nick F]

The beauty of the 12z GFS and EC ops and ens are that they are displaying a standing / stationary wave pattern over N America and Europe. Stationary highly amplified upper trough digging down over Europe provides continual cold air advection over the UK, so when those secondary lows slide down from the NW, with plenty of moisture and energy wrapped in them,  they create the ideal scenario for a big snow event on the eastern and northern flank of the low where they pass and bump into the cold air.

Good confidence on a cold northerly incursion arriving by/on Thursday, potential for sufficient undercut of the cold and dry arctic air for some back edge snow in places or maybe widespread as per GFS as the cold front clears SE. Followed by the usual wishbone effect snow showers down windward coasts Friday and Saturday, unless the troughs in the flow bring something more organised.

The potential for slider lows really in FI territory for now. But, for fun, 12z EC shows a heavy snow event for Wales and central S England for Sun 10/12 Dec. Can’t show the snow charts but here the ppn chart from EC for 10/12:

There is a fine line between being under snow on the cold side of such a secondary low sliding SE or under rain in the mild sector. Or, indeed, staying cold and dry. GFS has the slider low too far west to benefit anyone, so cold and dry away from coastal wintry showers.

So easy to get carried away and engrossed in the details of these teasing snowy scenarios that one easily forgets that it is unlikely to verify at 8 days out! Nevetheless, 12z GFS and EC operational runs both show these slider lows running into cold air already over the UK, as does the EPS control too, so perhaps a higher chance this evolution could come off.

However, I still have my tin hat ready, just in case it all implodes and ends up like the 12z GEM -with the inevitable toys flying.

Edited December 2, 2017 by Nick F

[Snowy L]

Hopefully we see that low on Thursday tracking a bit further South. It had been trending further sout the last couple of days but 12z has it much further North, with GFS showing no lying snow in England from that system.

[Allseasons-Si]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Anything in our neck of the woods feb? 

Here we go,onto the 18z,will it be stella's or prozak's

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Anything in our neck of the woods feb? 

Lots of sleet and RAIN 

 

BFTP

[festivalking]

25 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Oh AJ that’s just cruel.... at least I won’t have far to go lol

ps that actually happened to us Dorset folk in 2009 when we were under a red warning for snow, and the wounds were deep counselling sessions are ongoing, but funding ran out when the Channel Islands stole our fun in 2013.

give us a break 

Solidarity Brother!

 

[MattStoke]

18z steady as a rock out to +3 hours