Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[karlos1983]

Just now, Yarmy said:

I don't know why the put so much time and resources into generating 4 runs a day. Perhaps concentrating effort on a 0z and 12z would help. They've thrown a lot of money into it over the past few years, but it doesn't appear to be improving.

Agree, not only that, it would help the mood swings in here no end 

[karlos1983]

I've just rated the Icon, it's garbage, throw it out with the trash!

EDIT: it is trying to redeem itself LOL

Edited November 30, 2017 by karlos1983

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I've just rated the Icon, it's garbage, throw it out with the trash!

It will still bring a northerly but of course after the 150 hour range.

[frosty ground]

12 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

that's not very reassuring  given this mornings output

5 Days ago the GFS verified in 4th..... who know where it will verify today.

[karlos1983]

anyone having issues with wetterzentral? I can't load the site.

[Yarmy]

In fact, looking at the 12z stats for Day 5 (the 0z JMA doesn't go out that far), the GFS is sitting a lowly 5th:

1. ECM

2. UKMO

3. JMA

4. GEM

5. GFS

So the so-called "big 3" are in reality ECM/UKMO/JMA.

 

 

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

In fact, looking at the 12z stats for Day 5 (the 0z JMA doesn't go out that far), the GFS is sitting a lowly 5th:

1. ECM

2. UKMO

3. JMA

4. GEM

5. GFS

So the so-called "big 3" are in reality ECM/UKMO/JMA.

 

 

Yep...

Gfs is real poor atm.

@predict #verification

Edited November 30, 2017 by tight isobar

[karlos1983]

12z GFS making much less of that Short wave coming off S Greenland and towards Iceland

[Dean E]

Short wave at +102hrs already modeled weaker on the 12z, compared to the 06z at the same time (4th Dec)

06z +96                                                   12z +102hrs

 

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

12z GFS making much less of that Short wave coming off S Greenland and towards Iceland

is that perceived to  be better or a worry  for subsequent amplication? I say  as novice a worry as stronger SW more umph!!!!

[karlos1983]

UKMO 120

[Dean E]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO 120

Very similar to GFS 12z at the same time

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

is that perceived to  be better or a worry  for subsequent amplication? I say  as novice a worry as stronger SW more umph!!!!

TBH I'm not 100% sure on this occasion, but I think we either want it, and for it to drop SE quickly or not have one at all, as a half hearted SW seems to have flattened this out out quite a bit.

[Yarmy]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO 120

That's yesterday's.

[tight isobar]

Do-or die!!

Warm air advection on eastern seaboard 'could' for once be a saving grace.

As the trough drops into the states' we need perfect alignment.

Closing down shortwaving into the atlantic ' and hopefully sharpening into east greenland...

This would eventualy also unlock the door 'somewhat' for our very own ridge latter on!..

And a morph of the pair would be a super ridge...

Then we are wide open for dynamics north...and east..

Need eyeing over coming runs!!!!

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

That's yesterday's.

oh yes so it is, not updating properly on weterz

The 12z GFS is not a million miles away from the 06z, but the difference in what we get on our little island is very different. fl Northerly coming no doubt 

Edited November 30, 2017 by karlos1983

[frosty ground]

Slower route to cold

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

oh yes so it is, not updating properly on weterz

You might prefer yesterday's.

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Slower route to cold

This is the same low that for few days the GFS was showing passing through the middle of the country with a snowfest on its Northerly flank?

Now it's a standard Winter mild low bringer.

[Dean E]

GFS 12z  opening the Atlantic... then decides to blow up that Low that moved around the top of the High, which sinks into the Med.

Another output with different results. Status quo remains, everything is still on the table this afternoon, including the kitchen sink.

[tight isobar]

Need to drop that shortwave south..

Then east ridge-morphs with west -ridge..

Then the fun and games can begin??!!!

[radiohead]

Wet and windy with a deepening low.

Edited November 30, 2017 by radiohead

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

This is the same low that for few days the GFS was showing passing through the middle of the country with a snowfest on its Northerly flank?

Now it's a standard Winter mild low bringer.

Its the same low as the 06z that has intensified...... just another option

[A.J]

18 minutes ago, Dean E said:

Short wave at +102hrs already modeled weaker on the 12z, compared to the 06z at the same time (4th Dec)

06z +96                                                   12z +102hrs

 

surely they're secondary low pressure centers and not 'shortwaves'?.......look at the pressure contours..................the low pressure to the west of the azores,  now that has a shortwave trough on it, to the east of the LP center

[Dean E]

1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

surely they're secondary low pressure centers and not 'shortwaves'?.......look at the pressure contours..................the low pressure to the west of the azores,  now that has a shortwave trough on it, to the east of the LP center

Think you might be right with that one, does appear to slowly form off that Low towards Newfoundland. Clearly tired eyes!