Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Man With Beard]

A savage chopping up of the vortex on the GFS 06Z:

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

This is bonkers! Some showing a blizzard for end of next week and then this?! Barbecue anyone?? :-D

I think SS was just highlighting the steep temperature difference from North to South. It's just what the model is showing at that time?

You wouldn't want the BBQ out a few frames after that let me tell you LOL

Edited November 30, 2017 by karlos1983

[Frosty.]

44 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

 

 things could swing back.

That didnt take long did it...The 6z must have been listening to me

[frosty ground]

12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

That's some difference between Scotland and the south

With a temperature Gradient like that the precipitation (Snow/Rain) is going to be heavy!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I think SS was just highlighting the steep temperature difference from North to South. It's just what the model is showing at that time?

Oh chart 1 is the real temperatures and chart 2 is a reflection on the difference in the temperatures in chart 1?

[Methuselah]

How long is this meteorological merry-go-round going to go on for? Spiffing for mood swings!

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That didnt take long did it...The 6z must have been listening to me

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Oh chart 1 is the real temperatures and chart 2 is a reflection on the difference in the temperatures in chart 1?

Left chart is the 850 temps right chart is the 2m max temp

[ScottishSnowStorm]

Further upgrades will come 

[Man With Beard]

Meanwhile, the ECM op cluster is the best option out of the ensembles for cold by T192

By T240, absolutely nothing like the GFS

Still eyeing up an increase in heights through Scandi later on (control run cluster and cluster 4)

 

[snowice]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That didnt take long did it...The 6z must have been listening to me

Will we ever get within +120 with this setup instead of 168?it's so compulsory viewing at moment

 

.

 

 

 

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Without any upper air charts available at 168t its difficult to make a forecast based on that chart. However, looks like a developing low to cross the heart of the UK  towards the end of next week with coldest air to the North ( Scotland at least ) and a warmer sector over Southern England for longest.. Could end up as a snow event for Central Britain and sort of ties up with the Met Office of a renewed Northerly not far away next week after the passage of the short wave/ldepression. Should start to pick this up on fax charts this coming weekend and then only will the UKMO start to mention a possible snow event. Great chart watching this. 

 C

 

Further to the above post, I have a feeling that the chart below from latest GFS run will be similar to UKMO thinking for next Thursday with a possible snow event for some as the Arctic front sinks. Should start to show some sort of development on this weekends fax charts. Good run again from GFS. Maybe some sort of agreement now with the models for middle of next week and a renewed northerly by the end of the week for all. Meanwhile a few snowy days here in the Eastern Alps with sub zero temps and then sunshine for the middle of next week

C

Edited November 30, 2017 by carinthian

[Summer Sun]

16 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

This is bonkers! Some showing a blizzard for end of next week and then this?! Barbecue anyone?? :-D

Your sausages might be a bit soggy

[Rocheydub]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Your sausages might be a bit soggy

Oooeeer matron!

 

knife edge stuff though, if that pattern shifts north or south by a couple of hundred miles it could cause wild mood swings. Very interesting NWP - winter only starts tomorrow too!

[Geordiesnow]

Looks like it could potentially be a mild if not even a very mild start to winter as high pressure is building over Europe and the Atlantic starting to show signs of waking up.

Any northerly  shot is getting pushed back and is starting to look less likely as upstream in the short to medium term is not looking as good as previously so enjoy the cold whilst it lasts

[Scandinavian High.]

What’s betting that weather front will be across southern England and bringing snow line with it further south come the event.?

[bluearmy]

Just now, abbie123 said:

What’s betting that weather front will be across southern England and bringing snow line with it further south come the event.?

More likely there won’t be any event at all at this timescale !!

[Scandinavian High.]

More upgrades then days ahead.

Edited November 30, 2017 by abbie123

[ScottishSnowStorm]

12 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Looks like it could potentially be a mild if not even a very mild start to winter as high pressure is building over Europe and the Atlantic starting to show signs of waking up.

Any northerly  shot is getting pushed back and is starting to look less likely as upstream in the short to medium term is not looking as good as previously so enjoy the cold whilst it lasts

Show charts where the atlantic is waking up?

[Geordiesnow]

Got to say I'm confused why my post has got 4 confused emoticons on it because looking at this morning's output  it looks like a mild start to winter as the high to the west of us continue to sink into Europe and eventually we got from a less chilly North Westerly to potentially a mild South Westerly. I would not fully rule out a northerly but it getting pushed back and model experience tend to tell you when this happens then it a bit of a long shot really. 

[karlos1983]

GFS Control taking a similar route to the OP.

Edited November 30, 2017 by karlos1983

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

16 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Looks like it could potentially be a mild if not even a very mild start to winter as high pressure is building over Europe and the Atlantic starting to show signs of waking up.

Any northerly  shot is getting pushed back and is starting to look less likely as upstream in the short to medium term is not looking as good as previously so enjoy the cold whilst it lasts

That is a very brave call given the latest output from the GFS and UKMO!  Heights look like sustaining around Greenland and whilst the Atlantic is also attempting to fire up my money would be on systems running NW/SE with the UK being the battleground and that means somewhere is likely to enjoy a very big dump!  Maybe Newcastle for example?! 

Re the delay any potential Northerly has always been forecast for somewhere between Tuesday and Thursday next week which has been the case for the last few days.  Perhaps the latest runs have tended to move this towards the latter but we are now seeing the battleground UK scenario moving into the 168 range so we will find out soon enough I guess.....

Edited November 30, 2017 by Kentish Snowman

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

That is a very brave call given the latest output from the GFS and UKMO!  Heights look like sustaining around Greenland and whilst the Atlantic is also attempting to fire up my money would be on systems running NW/SE with the UK being the battleground and that means somewhere is likely to enjoy a very big dump!  Maybe Newcastle for example?! 

Whilst it may not be an Atlantic onslaught(yet), the Atlantic will be influencing our weather somewhat it seems with quite a large high over Europe potentially which tend to mean mild South Westerlies. Any cold shot has been pushed back unfortunately and it does seem the outside bet at this moment in time. Could it change for the better? Of course and it can quickly but the trend does seem to be turning milder with a risk of a cold northerly down the line.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Whilst it may not be an Atlantic onslaught(yet), the Atlantic will be influencing our weather somewhat it seems with quite a large high over Europe potentially which tend to mean mild South Westerlies. Any cold shot has been pushed back unfortunately and it does seem the outside bet at this moment in time. Could it change for the better? Of course and it can quickly but the trend does seem to be turning milder with a risk of a cold northerly down the line.

I don't get the South Westerlies comment when there is a huge high anomaly forecast to remain to our W / NW and in much of the output up to Greenland?  Atlantic influenced possibly but certainly no sign of a South Westerly Bartlett scenario?

[frosty ground]

The timing of any northerly looks uncertain thou a northerly looks certain (Duration unkown)