Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[warrenb]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Heights further North.....Cold air slowly advancing south

Very reminiscent of this mornings  Meto 168. To be honest this is very much one of those all or nothing situations, and the models won't resolve it until around +48

Edited November 30, 2017 by warrenb

[SLEETY]

Going be good run ,with that Greenland high,but fl again

[frosty ground]

Well Scotland is still the place to be...... 


Jet Splits and meets up when it crosses the UK

Edited November 30, 2017 by frosty ground

[terrier]

Think with the wild swings in the output at the moment nothing is off the table. Think we may have a better idea idea after the weekend. Gfs06z does look to be going colder again. But can we really put much credibility in it with the wild fluctuations at the moment. 

[karlos1983]

note the date 

Far from done !

[feb1991blizzard]

This is rapidly turning into a stonker - heavy snow moving down the spine of the country around 180 - as 8th dec 1990 esque as you can get.

[Scandinavian High.]

Much better high towards Greenland.

[Paul_1978]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

This is rapidly turning into a stonker - heavy snow moving down the spine of the country around 180 - as 8th dec 1990 esque as you can get.

You couldn't make it up! The rollercoaster continues. I don't know if I'm coming or going .

[Man With Beard]

GFS has been very, very consistent with an Atlantic low hitting the cold air - somewhere - across the UK next Thursday:

    

You wouldn't want to call it. We've seen plenty of these types go further north - or further south.

This one does the business by Friday:

    

It was much closer to the UKMO than the ECM at T144 - interesting...

[SMU]

The nationwide snow event is back on Lol & its made it into 192 !

... If only we could get ECM on board

UKMO & GFS6 pretty good

[markw2680]

Just now, Paul_1978 said:

You couldn't make it up! The rollercoaster continues. I don't know if I'm coming or going .

Exactly what I was thinking. I don’t no why people keep getting led astray as we all no a week away in weather is a long time especially when the models are up and down like a yo-yo 

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning

The 06z ( alligned to UKMO 00z )

looks a fair reprentation of where will end up at day 6/7 with a North south divide & snow possibilities arriving for 'somewhere in the middle'

 

PS - my first snow flurry today - the last day of Autumn!

S

Snow possibilities for all if this run verifies, and some high snowfall totals quite widely I would suggest.

[karlos1983]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

The nationwide snow event is back on Lol & its made it into 192 !

... If only we could get ECM on board

UKMO & GFS6 pretty good

That is the stuff of dreams for South East, Blizzards!!

[Summer Sun]

That's some difference between Scotland and the south

Edited November 30, 2017 by Summer Sun

[weirpig]

Another 6 hours  another outcome  just set back and enjoy   I bet Ian brown wished he hadnt started Trolling Ian ferguson now.

[Scandinavian High.]

Someone is going good dumping with this low it could go further south or north.

[karlos1983]

Just now, weirpig said:

Another 6 hours  another outcome  just set back and enjoy   I bet Ian brown wished he hadnt started Trolling Ian ferguson now.

LMAO i saw that and had a chuckle 

[Gustywind]

If we can just get the low tracking a bit further south we could get more of a snow event for the U.K. as a whole, as opposed to a rain to snow event for all except Scotland. Can someone nuke those blasted Iberian heights!

Remember 8th Dec 1990 very well - amazing event, although the 20cm of snow we had didn’t last for more than a few days.

[SLEETY]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Another 6 hours  another outcome  just set back and enjoy   I bet Ian brown wished he hadnt started Trolling Ian ferguson now.

why what did he say

 

some places will be digging themselves out of snow IF this gfs run comes close to verifying.Can it just once 

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I take it your talking thin wedges of heights?

It just looks like the upstream set up won’t  allow a decent greeny height rise to establish whilst the Atlantic is trying desperately to amplify at the same time - the result could be wedges of heights thrown up to our nw and the jet deflected se. Not actually a bad pattern for snowfall prospects.

[weirpig]

Just now, SLEETY said:

why what did he say

 

some places will be digging themselves out of snow IF this gfs run comes close to verifying.Can it just once 

Just asking when the Met will be updating there forecast    And fergie replied why.

[captaincroc]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The nationwide snow event is back on Lol & its made it into 192 !

... If only we could get ECM on board

UKMO & GFS6 pretty good

Didn't you say a week or so back about the floodgates opening on a day in December? Something to do with the delay in the warming of the atmosphere?  

 

As for me it just looks like there is a block of cold that just wants to flood south? Whether we get it is another things but it's something I feel the models are picking up and hence their flip-flopping?

[Timmytour]

11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

note the date 

Far from done !

From my recollection the same date that the winter of 1981/82 began.... the beginning of the first segment that lasted till Boxing Day and was then followed up by another starting on 4th Jan and lasting through most of that month.

Hoping history repeats! 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

That's some difference between Scotland and the south

This is bonkers! Some showing a blizzard for end of next week and then this?! Barbecue anyone?? :-D

[Guest]

Models all over the place currently we just need some consistency in the output. ive enjoyed the ups and downs of the last few weeks and the will it wont it and still we don't have any real clue.. lucky for me ive already had 2 snow events this Autumn and as I type its absolutely thrashing it down with snow with some impressive drifting in the strong wind. in the past the models have always seemed to struggle with anything that isn't the norm for the UK and I think this is the case at the moment.. could be a long winter and hopefully a white one for all of us not just us lucky lot up here in blizzard land...