Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[bluearmy]

Day 9 looks right wrt to the ens - deep upper trough sinking sw into nw europe 

[Ali1977]

great 240 coming on ECM, eye candy at that range but still nice.

[MR EXTREMES]

The Azores high has nowhere to go but northwest could be a seriously cold fi. 

Brilliant ECM proper extreme

[snowice]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Me too steve..and it will most likely be right.

One run in isolation look at how it flipped in the past 24hours,give it till the morning before throwing in the towel

[SMU]

22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its usually the other way - too amplified, so you don't think it will verify then?

No mate- to flat...

look at the UKMO/GFS/JMA --

Overall the run is good but with a smidge more amplification we get the JMA..

Edited December 1, 2017 by Steve Murr

[MR EXTREMES]

Merry Christmas early.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, snowice said:

One run in isolation look at how it flipped in the past 24hours,give it till the morning before throwing in the towel

It gets better but no agreement at 120 so we wait for subsequent runs...not looked at the 850s as im in work but i would imagine its ok for elevated places

[Ice Day]

Not bad at all, setting up and easterly (yes, I know it's at 240)?  The uppers aren't particularly good though!

  

Edited December 1, 2017 by Ice Day

[mountain shadow]

Tonight's ECM is much better than yesterday's though. Just need to wait and see where it sits in its ens and clusters.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Merry Christmas early.

Uppers are poor

ok if you like a cold wet Christmas 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No mate- to flat...

look at the UKMO/GFS/JMA --

Overall the run is good but with a smidge more amplification we get the JMA..

Another thing Steve - never noticed this before until you mentioned it (sure it was you), the uppers seem too high, you would think with the last 2 H500mb / surface pressure frames of the ECM, there would be snow for more than just very high ground in the North, but when you look at the uppers they look high for lowland snow.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Uppers are poor

ok if you like a cold wet Christmas 

That two weeks before Xmas karlos ...........

[nick sussex]

A word about the ECM.

NOAA commented on the differences, the discussion doesn't include tonights ECM but the flat versus more amplified is still in evidence. The NOAA state forecasts will cover the ECM later on:

 MODELS ARE STILL
STRUGGLING WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS SURROUNDING WHETHER A LOBE OF
ENERGY ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF AK OVER THE WEEKEND BECOMES
QUICKLY ABSORBED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW/AMPLIFYING TROUGH, OR
SEPARATES INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OR
EVEN ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE ECMWF MADE A SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGE WITH THE 12Z THU RUN FROM A MORE CONSOLIDATED TROUGH TO A
DEEP CUTOFF LOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE E PAC/SOUTHWEST/NORTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH DAY 7, AND THE MODEL PERSISTED WITH THIS SOLUTION
IN THE 00Z RUN. THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL
RUNS, SHOWING AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY EXTENDING WESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FROM THE LARGER TROUGH. ENSEMBLE
TRENDS HAVE MOVED IN A DIRECTION OPPOSITE OF THE DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF, WITH MORE ECENS/NAEFS MEMBERS SHIFTING TO A MORE GFS-LIKE
SOLUTION. GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THIS NEW
SOLUTION FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS, HOWEVER, CANNOT JUSTIFY
THROWING IT OUT ENTIRELY. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH, WITH LESS/NO CUTOFF LIKELY MEANING A MORE AMPLIFIED
LARGE SCALE EASTERN TROUGH AND THUS COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN A GFS SCENARIO RELATIVE TO THE ECMWF.

[Singularity]

Agree with some that the lift-out of the Canadian vortex lobe looks overly fast on the ECM 12z.

The big new bout of amplification that follows, well perhaps that can be traced back to the AAM kick which ECM likely makes more of than GFS based on typical bias. 

Important caveat that if tropical convection doesn't behave as ECM and GFS are predicting over the coming week, the balance of power will shift again - though the observed AAM kick today is an encouraging sign that it just might.

Behold the ECM, the Marmite Model! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Merry Christmas early.

Well in FI so hope it could be better, rainfest that

[northwestsnow]

Suprised at those uppers on EC ...thought they would be lower than that!!

[Guest]

I wouldn't worry about the uppers at that range, tbh. What is encouraging is the regular return to cold in the longer term

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z turned out pretty good for a rubbish run

[phil nw.]

The ECM being flatter doesn't bring very impressive uppers south.-4c uppers mostly and wouldn't cut it for many looking for snowfall,this would confine snow to higher levels mainy.

JMA shows what could be achieved with a better ridging

A good dig of cold uppers right down the UK.

Edited December 1, 2017 by phil nw.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM brings a nasty system in too on the 7th, with of cse cold surging south.  Actually an astonishing run

Got a feeling we are in for some winter.  I have big rtn of Atlantic blocking for around mid Dec.....so indeed I am thinking ECM and others aren’t outlandish.  We could be looking at the first big step down as we ‘plummet’ to a grand minimum.  Blue Moon in the 4th btw...hope you have clear skies

 

BFTP

[Tracy Flick]

The EC looks believable given what others have been saying.

e.g. there's some amplification of the Atlantic ridge but not a massive amount.

(Isn't that what GP was saying?)

[SMU]

20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another thing Steve - never noticed this before until you mentioned it (sure it was you), the uppers seem too high, you would think with the last 2 H500mb / surface pressure frames of the ECM, there would be snow for more than just very high ground in the North, but when you look at the uppers they look high for lowland snow.

Uppers are high maybe 1/2c overstated but uppers have been mixed by that low 192-240...

A fair run 7/10 - however a bit out of kilter..

Anyway as Del would say its epidemic at this range...

 

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That two weeks before Xmas karlos ...........

Yes I was being a bit naughty  

[knocker]

deleted

 

Edited December 1, 2017 by knocker

[blizzard81]

The ecm is far more promising than the jma in the latter stages for long term cold.